revenue
292.5–297.5 $million
Q2 2023
official guidance
VTEX
Last · NYSE$4.06-0.12 (-2.87%)close · yahoo · 9h ago
Market cap$692.17M90.1M sh
P/E · TTM23.9fwd 14.7 · eps 0.17
Beta0.93vs S&P 500
Div yield0.00%annual · TTM
52w range
$2.841$4.62
Volume980.7Ksession
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Operating momentum is encouraging, but profitability remains too dependent on unquantified execution and external content economics.
HOLD: Fubo delivered strong Q1 growth—revenue rose 34% to $324.4 million, North American subscribers increased 22% to 1.285 million, and adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $58.9 million.
However, the investment case still depends on unproven content-cost reductions, ad monetization and achieving positive cash flow in 2025; the $364.8 million cash balance was supported by $117.2 million of ATM proceeds, creating dilution risk.
Themes
- Subscriber Growth
- Pricing Power
- Advertising Reacceleration
- Rsn Content Costs
- Cash Burn
- 2025 Profitability
Near term
Q2 North American revenue guidance of $292.5 million-$297.5 million implies 36% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, while subscriber guidance of 1.12 million-1.14 million implies 19% growth.
Management reported April advertising revenue growth in the double digits after Q1 ad revenue was flat year-over-year; sustained improvement is important to validate the reacceleration thesis.
The unified-platform redesign, on-premise video processing migration and AI-powered Instant Highlights are expected to roll out over the next several months.
Recent price increases caused negligible churn impact, but management acknowledged that churn can have a lagged impact over the next one or two quarters.
Longer term
Management targets positive cash flow in 2025, with subscriber-related expenses already improving from 101% to 93% of revenue; further progress depends on meaningful content-cost leverage.
Fubo's sports-first positioning, RSN availability, 4K and MultiView features support differentiation, but the moat is not clearly durable if sports-rights costs continue rising or competitors replicate product features.
Direct advertising is growing rapidly but remains a very small portion of ad sales; the higher-CPM opportunity will require building sales capacity and converting agency interest into durable contracts.
On-premise data-center processing could reduce cloud costs and improve video quality, but the magnitude and timing of savings were not quantified.
Red flags
The 2025 positive-cash-flow objective remains a target rather than a quantified earnings bridge; management did not provide a path for future adjusted EBITDA or free-cash-flow margins.
Content costs remain extremely high at 93% of revenue, and the claimed additional 'wood to chop' was not quantified. Volume discounts and future rights negotiations are execution-dependent.
The RSN ecosystem remains exposed to team withdrawals, broadcaster restructuring and potential direct-to-consumer offerings. Management said payment-reduction provisions exist but did not disclose the economics.
The balance sheet was bolstered by ATM issuance, and despite saying there are no further plans to sell shares, continued cash burn could require additional financing and dilution.
Interactive and shoppable advertising initiatives are mostly early-stage and not yet scalable; current ad growth therefore remains more cyclical than structurally proven.
Forward outlook
revenue growth
36 pct
Q2 2023
official guidance
revenue
1235–1265 $million
FY 2023
official guidance
revenue growth
27 pct
FY 2023
official guidance
revenue
6.9–7.9 $million
Q2 2023
official guidance
revenue growth
27 pct
Q2 2023
official guidance
revenue
28.6–32.6 $million
FY 2023
official guidance
revenue growth
26 pct
FY 2023
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$0.05
Est. revenue
63.1M