GRID DYNAMICS HOLDINGS, INC.

Recommendation history

• Q1 2026HoldHold: Q1 revenue was $104.1 million, up 3.7% year over year, while non-GAAP EBITDA fell to $12.5 million and margin declined to 12.0% from 14.5%. AI revenue reached 29.3% of sales and Q2 guidance implies stronger EBITDA of $14 million-$15 million, but the investment case still depends on converting unproven fixed-price and platform monetization into durable growth and gross-margin expansion.
• Q4 2025HoldHold: Q4 beat with revenue of $106.2 million and non-GAAP EBITDA of $13.7 million, while AI revenue reached 25% of sales and grew 30% in 2025 to more than $90 million. The bull case is accelerating enterprise AI adoption and higher-margin outcome-based delivery, but Q1 revenue guidance falls to $103-$104 million, full-year revenue guidance is wide at $435-$465 million, and the promised margin expansion remains largely unquantified.
• Q3 2025HoldHold: Q3 revenue reached $104.2 million, up 19.1% year over year, but non-GAAP EBITDA margin fell to 12.2% from 16.9% a year ago. The AI-led pipeline, higher billable headcount and $50 million buyback support the recovery case, while Q4 revenue guidance of $105-$107 million and an unquantified 300-basis-point margin goal leave execution risk unresolved.
• Q2 2025HoldHold: Q2 revenue reached a record $101.1 million, up 21.7% year over year but only 6.3% organically, while non-GAAP EBITDA margin fell to 12.6% from 14.5% sequentially. AI/Data is now 23% of organic revenue and growing nearly three times faster than the core business, but the investment case still depends on converting an unquantified pipeline and proving that GAIN can improve revenue per employee and margins.
• Q1 2025HoldHold: Grid Dynamics delivered a solid Q1, with revenue of $100.4 million, up 25.8% year over year, and non-GAAP EBITDA of $14.6 million, but the investment case still depends on a second-half ramp that is not fully secured. AI demand and record billable headcount support growth, while minimal Q1 contribution from new logos, Q2 EBITDA guidance of $12.5-$13.5 million, and macro-sensitive client budgets argue against chasing the shares.
• Q4 2024BuyBuy: Grid Dynamics delivered record Q4 revenue of $100.3 million, up 28.5% year over year, and guided to 2025 revenue of $415-$435 million, or 18.4%-24.1% growth. The bull case is broadening demand across top customers, AI implementation momentum, hyperscaler partnerships, and larger RFP wins; the key tension is that organic Q1 growth is expected to be roughly flat sequentially at the high end and Q4 non-GAAP EBITDA margin fell to 15.6% from 16.9% in Q3.
• Q3 2024HoldGrid Dynamics delivered a record Q3 with organic revenue of $87.4 million and non-GAAP EBITDA of $14.8 million, or 16.9% margin, beating guidance. Q4 revenue guidance rises to $95–97 million, with acquisitions expected to contribute 10% of revenue, but EBITDA guidance of $13.5–15.5 million implies margin pressure; AI demand is scaling, yet elevated customer concentration and limited visibility beyond Q4 argue for waiting rather than buying aggressively.