revenue
—
FY 2021
management framework
FIVE POINT HOLDINGS, LLC
Last · NYSE$4.28-0.10 (-2.28%)close · yahoo · 13h ago
Market cap$633.02M71.8M sh
P/E · TTM6.0fwd 6.5 · eps 0.71
Beta1.36vs S&P 500
Div yield0.00%annual · TTM
52w range
$4.20$6.47
Volume319.5Ksession
| Revenue | $26.5M |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $30.2M |
| Net income | $8.6M |
| Free cash flow | $-54.8M |
| Operating margin | 114.1% |
| Net margin | 32.6% |
| Return on equity | 0.4% |
| Period | 2026 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Attractive asset value, but cash realization and NAV simplification remain unproven catalysts.
Hold: Five Point ended 2020 with $298 million of corporate cash, 14.8% net debt-to-capitalization, and $111.7 million of Q4 consolidated revenue, including $105.5 million from Valencia land sales.
The bull case is strong housing demand, 800–900 potentially saleable Great Park homesites and a possible roughly $100 million distribution to Five Point in 2021; however, the distribution estimate was walked back from $120–$150 million during Q&A, while San Francisco timing remains dependent on Navy cleanup and complex public-sector execution.
Themes
- Great Park Land Sales
- Valencia Homesites
- Legacy Distributions
- San Francisco Cleanup
- Nav Discount
- Housing Demand
Near term
Great Park land-sale timing and final proceeds: management expects the next phase to close in Q2 or Q3, with approximately 800–900 homesites offered.
Whether the Great Park sale actually clears the remaining $45 million priority legacy distribution and produces the revised approximately $100 million distribution to Five Point.
Valencia’s first-phase home launches and builder absorption, including 1,268 homes and approximately 50 model homes expected later in 2021.
Navy and city progress on Hunters Point and Candlestick; management cited a first San Francisco parcel potentially being delivered in 2023, but said the schedule still needs confirmation.
Longer term
Valencia is beginning to monetize a multidecade land position; management cited 21,000 homes ahead and potential capacity for significant additional density.
Great Park could support materially more than the currently approved 10,500 homes, with management estimating 5,000–7,000 additional homes from higher density, subject to traffic, approvals and public-partner agreement.
The Valencia Landbank structure may improve builder demand by offering off-balance-sheet or just-in-time land access, but it also adds related-party and accounting complexity.
San Francisco represents substantial long-term NAV upside if the Navy cleanup schedule holds, while delays could continue to suppress valuation for years.
Healthcare and life-science commercial development, anchored by City of Hope, could differentiate the portfolio, but the economic contribution is not yet quantified.
Red flags
Management gave materially different Great Park distribution figures on the same call: $120–$150 million initially, followed by a request to use $100 million. This weakens confidence in cash-flow precision.
The 2023–2026 San Francisco parcel schedule is a Navy schedule rather than a firm Five Point operating outlook; management explicitly said commitments still need to be made firm.
Five Point’s value remains difficult to underwrite because assets sit across unconsolidated ventures, legacy interests and a complex ownership structure; the promised NAV framework was not provided on the call.
The company took a $30 million Great Park impairment that management now says likely would not have been necessary in hindsight, but it will not be reversed.
The thesis depends heavily on housing prices, builder appetite and approvals over long development cycles; management’s bullish housing commentary was not accompanied by formal earnings or margin guidance.
Forward outlook
revenue
100 $million
FY 2021
management framework
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
0
Earnings transcripts
Documents
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