revenue
4800–5200 $million
Q3 2026
official guidance
FIGURE TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS, INC.
Last · NASDAQ$25.05-2.20 (-8.07%)close · yahoo · 13h ago
Market cap$5.62B185.7M sh
P/E · TTM26.9fwd 13.3 · eps 0.93
Beta—vs S&P 500
Div yield0.00%annual · TTM
52w range
$24.11$78.00
Volume6.0Msession
| Revenue | $506.9M |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $117.5M |
| Net income | $62.0M |
| Operating margin | 23.2% |
| Net margin | 12.2% |
| Return on equity | 5.0% |
| Period | 2025 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Constructive, but not an unequivocal buy:
Figure delivered exceptional growth—CLM volume of $4.3 billion (+132%), adjusted net revenue of $218 million (+95%), and adjusted EBITDA of $119 million (+126%)—while Connect reached 65% of volume and drove a 54.6% margin. The key tension is monetization: take rate fell to 3.6% and is expected at the low end of the 3.5%–4.0% range in Q3, with analyst questioning exposing volume-tier pricing pressure and limited disclosure on the underlying economics. The setup is attractive if Connect margins and Kiavi execution offset lower pricing, but the 8.5% acquisition debt and dependence on continued volume growth warrant a valuation-sensitive entry rather than aggressive buying.
Near term
Q3 CLM volume guidance of $4.8 billion–$5.2 billion, supported by July volume of $1.7 billion and weekly applications exceeding $1 billion; execution against this range is the clearest near-term stock catalyst.
Take rate will likely remain near 3.5% as Connect mix rises, first-lien volume expands, and interest-rate volatility weighs on gain-on-sale revenue. Stabilizing rates could help, but management offered no quantified sensitivity.
Figure Connect mix increased nine percentage points sequentially to 65%; further mix shift should support capital-light EBITDA, but investors need evidence that contribution margin—not headline take rate—is sustaining earnings growth.
Democratized Prime had $392 million of matched offers and $170 million of third-party assets as of August 6. Continued third-party adoption would validate that Figure is replacing traditional warehouse funding rather than simply moving its own loans onto the platform.
The $600 million of unsecured notes issued at 8.5% funds the Kiavi acquisition but raises financing costs and reduces room for execution misses.
Longer term
The core thesis is increasingly dependent on Figure Connect becoming a scaled, two-sided capital marketplace: 489 partners, over 100 unique securitization note buyers, and 65% of CLM volume are encouraging, but the durability of network effects remains unproven.
Connect is growing faster than anticipated, with management now expecting it to approach 70% of volume in the medium term. That should reduce balance-sheet intensity, but higher volume-tier discounts could structurally cap revenue per dollar of volume.
Credit metrics remain supportive rather than a current concern: weighted-average FICO was 756, CLTV 62.1%, and the securitized collateral base reached $7.7 billion while management reported strong seasoning and recovery performance.
Kiavi could add residential transition loans, DSCR and approximately $100 million of annual EBITDA, while also expanding Figure's addressable asset classes. The strategic upside depends on integrating the technology and actually creating liquidity and standardization in a market that is not agency eligible.
The competitive moat is still a thesis, not a demonstrated fact. Figure's blockchain and AI infrastructure may lower processing and diligence costs, but traditional warehouse lines, established securitization channels and larger capital-market incumbents remain credible alternatives.
Red flags
Analyst pushback showed ecosystem and technology fees growing more slowly than Connect volume; management attributed the decline in per-volume economics to contractual volume tiers, but did not quantify the pricing floor, cohort economics or contribution margin by channel.
Management repeatedly redirected attention from take rate to contribution margin, yet the promised better disclosure is deferred until there is full visibility into Kiavi. That leaves investors without a clean way to assess the economic trade-off from rapid Connect mix migration.
Q2 adjusted EBITDA included a $5.9 million minority-investment sale gain; excluding it, margin was approximately 52%, materially below the reported 54.6%. Net income also benefited from a $4.4 million tax benefit, making headline earnings quality weaker than reported.
Approximately $600 million of loans remained on the balance sheet, including roughly $360 million supporting Democratized Prime and additional loans held for three to four weeks before sale. Management described this as temporary, but did not provide a firm cap or quantify downside if marketplace demand weakens.
The Kiavi transaction remains subject to closing and regulatory approvals. The $100 million EBITDA contribution and 40% volume uplift are management expectations, not yet realized results, while the acquisition is being financed with expensive unsecured debt.
Interest-rate exposure remains material through gain-on-sale economics. Management acknowledged volatility but gave no numerical sensitivity, making near-term earnings less predictable than the capital-light narrative suggests.
Forward outlook
ebitda
100 $million
FY 2026
management framework
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
1:30 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$0.34
Est. revenue
255.5M
Earnings transcripts
Press & signals
- GlobeNewswire
Figure Technology Solutions Reports Preliminary September & Q3 2026 Operating Data
- GlobeNewswire
Figure Partners with Sierra to Supercharge Loan Officers with AI Agents That Turn Abandoned Home Equity Applications into Funded Loans
- GlobeNewswire
Figure Completes Acquisition of Kiavi
The rest of this company's wire — with summaries and source links — is part of Pro.
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