adjusted eps
16.8 $per share
FY 2026
official guidance
AERCAP HOLDINGS N.V.
Last · NYSE$144.29-1.39 (-0.95%)close · yahoo · 13h ago
Market cap$22.68B157.2M sh
P/E · TTM7.1fwd 7.9 · eps 20.41
Beta0.98vs S&P 500
Div yield1.10%annual · TTM
52w range
$118.96$158.81
Volume962.3Ksession
| Revenue | $8.5B |
|---|---|
| Net income | $3.8B |
| Net margin | 44.0% |
| Return on equity | 20.5% |
| Period | 2025 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Strong core cash generation, buybacks and multi-year fleet scarcity outweigh normalization risk.
Buy: AerCap delivered $5.14 adjusted EPS, 18% adjusted ROE and $1.5 billion of operating cash flow in Q2, lifting FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $16.80, including $2.80 of first-half asset-sale gains. The core leasing outlook remains attractive—85% of eligible passenger-aircraft placements were extensions, lease yield is up 30 bps year over year and net spread 50 bps—while $1.4 billion of Q2 buybacks and only 2.05x leverage leave substantial capital flexibility. The main tension is that unusually strong maintenance contribution and asset-sale margins are not fully recurring, while airline profitability could weaken if elevated oil prices persist.
Themes
- Earnings Guidance
- Share Repurchase
- Asset Sales
- Widebody Leasing
- 787 Order
- Lease Yields
Near term
Spirit aircraft are expected to begin returning to service in Q4, with 10 additional aircraft going out later this year; this should support lease yields and modestly improve net spread over the next several quarters.
FY2026 asset sales are expected at $4 billion-$5 billion versus $2.8 billion completed in the first half, but management does not assume further second-half gains in its EPS guidance.
Continued share repurchases are likely, with approximately $3.5 billion of excess capital available and remaining authorization under the existing program.
The 15 Boeing 787 aircraft begin delivering in 2030-2033, so the order is strategically positive but not a near-term earnings driver.
Longer term
More than half of less favorable COVID-era leases have rolled off, with roughly five years of remaining runoff; repricing should provide a gradual lift to portfolio yield and net spread.
Widebody replacement demand remains structurally supported by delayed deliveries and more than 200 fewer retirements than in the comparable pre-COVID period.
AerCap's scale, large 787 fleet, ability to secure scarce delivery slots and global engine/parts infrastructure reinforce its competitive position in aircraft and engine leasing.
Management expects leverage to move gradually toward the mid-2x range, but the current 2.05x ratio reflects persistent excess cash generation and could constrain near-term balance-sheet efficiency or buyback upside if capital is deployed conservatively.
The narrowbody franchise remains strongest in A321neo aircraft; Boeing MAX-10 certification could improve placement of MAX-8 aircraft, but a genuinely new narrowbody is unlikely to arrive in meaningful volume before the late 2030s.
Red flags
The reported 20% Q2 asset-sale margin is not a dependable run-rate: quarterly margins have ranged from 18% to 35% over the past six quarters, and management acknowledges substantial variation.
Q2 net maintenance contribution of $131 million was unusually high because of timing and is expected to normalize in the second half.
The headline 85% extension rate is less powerful than it first appears: the denominator excludes aircraft sold, and the other 15% of eligible aircraft were released; management said aircraft that are not extended generally end up being parted out rather than re-leased.
The aeroderivative/data-center opportunity remains uncommitted. Management has not found a partner with sufficient conviction on demand durability, and cited efficiency, reliability, grid expansion and alternative-power risks.
Higher oil prices have not yet affected airline credit or sale-leaseback discussions materially, but sustained pressure on airline margins is an unresolved downside risk.
Forward outlook
adjusted eps
14 $per share
FY 2026
official guidance
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
1:30 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$4.44
Est. revenue
2.1B
Earnings transcripts
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags