revenue
4.23 $billion
FY 2026
official guidance
RECRUIT HOLDINGS CO., LTD. · 株式会社リクルートホールディングス
Last · Tokyo¥16235.00-200.00 (-1.22%)stale · yahoo · 108h ago
Market cap¥22.52T1.39B sh
P/E · TTM46.7fwd 53.6 · eps 347.43
Beta0.95vs S&P 500
Div yield0.16%annual · TTM
52w range
¥6040.00¥18215.00
Volume6.1Msession
| Revenue | ¥3.70T |
|---|---|
| Operating income | ¥630.6B |
| Net income | ¥496.9B |
| Free cash flow | ¥581.6B |
| Operating margin | 17.1% |
| Net margin | 13.4% |
| Return on equity | 31.4% |
| Period | 2026 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
BuyHoldSell
Excellent operating momentum, but risk-reward is not a clean buy without better visibility on durability and regulatory exposure.
Hold: Recruit delivered a major beat and raised FY2026 guidance, with consolidated revenue now expected at ¥4.23 trillion (+14.4%) and EBITDA+S at ¥1.105 trillion (+39.1%), while HR Technology US revenue guidance rose to $6.6 billion (+25.1%). The AI-led monetization is clearly working—US ARPJ grew 35% despite job postings falling 4%—but the stock needs to absorb unusually high execution expectations, uncertain medium-term pricing durability, and an unresolved Japan Fair Trade Commission inspection.
Themes
- Hr Technology
- Indeed Ai
- Us Arpj
- Premium Sponsored Jobs
- Recruiting Automation
- Enterprise Adoption
Near term
Q2 execution against the raised US HR Technology outlook: management assumes roughly 30% FY2026 US ARPJ growth and a 4% year-over-year decline in US job postings.
Premium Sponsored Jobs adoption and enterprise conversion should determine whether Q1's 30% US revenue growth can persist beyond the initial monetization surge.
The ¥350 billion buyback remains supportive; ¥120 billion, or 34.3%, had been completed by the end of July.
MMT is expected to increase promotional and advertising spending in Q2, with first-half EBITDA+S margin guided at approximately 31%.
Foreign-exchange sensitivity is material because the consolidated outlook assumes ¥159 per US dollar.
Longer term
Indeed is expanding from job advertising toward recruiting automation, sourcing, screening, and potentially a broader share of hiring expenditure; management estimates a $200 billion market including placement and hiring automation, and $300 billion including temporary staffing.
The strongest evidence of a moat is the combination of job-market data, matching, and workflow automation, but management has not yet disclosed large-scale enterprise revenue, retention, or customer payback metrics to validate the platform thesis.
High-value monetization can continue even with fewer job postings if matching quality improves, but this creates greater dependence on customer-perceived ROI and acceptance of rapidly rising spend per client.
Enterprise penetration could broaden the addressable market, although management is deliberately avoiding deep integrations and final-stage workflow automation because implementation could require substantial Forward Deployed Engineering resources.
MMT's shift from fixed listing fees to GMV-linked models, including Beauty, Housing, and Automobile, could improve growth durability by linking revenue to customer outcomes.
Red flags
US ARPJ rose 35% while total US job postings declined approximately 4%, and management acknowledged that average spend per client has risen rapidly; customer satisfaction and the risk of pricing fatigue remain unquantified.
Management repeatedly said AI-driven performance is difficult to forecast precisely over the next two or three quarters, making the raised guidance vulnerable to a sharp normalization in monetization or hiring demand.
The Japan Fair Trade Commission is inspecting Japan Staffing over suspected Antimonopoly Act violations; the FY2026 guidance excludes any financial impact because it cannot yet be estimated.
Management's competitive differentiation claims—that Indeed can eliminate downstream processes before standalone SaaS or AI vendors enter—were not supported by quantified win rates, switching costs, competitive losses, or customer retention data.
The long-term TAM expansion case remains largely aspirational: the call did not provide a measurable revenue contribution from recruiting automation or evidence that enterprise adoption will offset possible cannibalization of traditional advertising and agency spend.
Forward outlook
revenue growth
14.4 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
ebitda
1105 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
gross margin
26.1 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue
11.4 $billion
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue growth
18.7 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
operating margin
45.8 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue
6.6 $billion
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue growth
25.1 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue growth
23.2 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue growth
5.4 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue
1830 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
operating margin
5.6 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue
605000 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue growth
7.1 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
operating margin
30 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
7:30 AM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$141.35
Est. revenue
1,055.0B
Earnings transcripts
- Issuer IR
Earnings Transcript
RECRUIT HOLDINGS CO., LTD.
- Issuer IR
Earnings Transcript
RECRUIT HOLDINGS CO., LTD.
- Issuer IR
Earnings Transcript
RECRUIT HOLDINGS CO., LTD.
- Issuer IR
Earnings Transcript
RECRUIT HOLDINGS CO., LTD.
- Issuer IR
Earnings Transcript
RECRUIT HOLDINGS CO., LTD.
- Issuer IR
Earnings Transcript
RECRUIT HOLDINGS CO., LTD.
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