revenue
2.2–2.5 $billion
FY 2026
official guidance
CARL ZEISS MEDITEC AG
Last · XETRA€33.02+0.18 (+0.55%)close · yahoo · 14h ago
Market cap€2.9B87.5M sh
P/E · TTM23.4fwd 22.6 · eps 1.41
Beta1.33vs S&P 500
Div yield1.67%annual · TTM
52w range
€22.62€48.36
Volume104.8Ksession
| Revenue | €2.2M |
|---|---|
| Operating income | €18,119 |
| Operating margin | 0.8% |
| Period | 2024 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Recovery assets are credible, but near-term earnings visibility and the high-margin China refractive moat remain insufficient for a buy.
Hold.
Nine-month revenue fell 2.2% to €1.554bn and adjusted EBITA margin dropped to 8.0% from 11.1%, with ophthalmology revenue down 4.8% and APAC down 8.7%. The recovery case rests on VBP/IOL relaunch, microsurgery momentum and €160m of ProfitUp benefits, but management now points to the lower end of 8–10% FY26 adjusted EBITA guidance, while China refractive procedures fell 8% in June and 5% in July and new competition is expected.
Themes
- China Refractive
- Vbp Iol
- Profitup Restructuring
- Microsurgery
- Torus Launch
- Competitive Entry
Near term
FY26 Q4 execution is the key swing factor: management said the weaker refractive trend makes the lower end of the 8–10% adjusted EBITA margin range more likely.
China refractive demand was 8% below prior year in June and 5% below prior year in July; management does not expect a major summer-peak boost, despite some historical late-season recovery.
The delayed Chinese VBP process is expected in September/October with implementation around December; timing, volume allocation and pricing remain material variables for IOL recovery.
Microsurgery has a stronger order book and project pipeline, but US tariffs and currency remain risks to the expected improvement next year.
The ZEISS VisuMax 800 rollout at Aier is expected to begin later in 2026, supporting equipment demand but not yet proving a recovery in recurring refractive consumables.
Longer term
ProfitUp comprises 130 measures and is expected to deliver a stated €160m net impact on normalized performance, but savings are back-end-loaded and next fiscal year should see only limited benefit.
The bifocal IOL recall removed roughly €30m of revenue at a premium margin; avoiding a repeat and eventual VBP-driven volume recovery could materially improve ophthalmology profitability.
TorUS could extend microsurgery from visualization into treatment and add consumables revenue, but FDA 510(k) clearance is only expected toward year-end 2026 and commercial contribution is unproven.
Management targets adjusted EBITA margin above 15% in FY2028/29 and 16–20% longer term, requiring successful restructuring, normalized FX and at least low- to mid-single-digit China refractive growth.
Competitive entry into Chinese refractive surgery is explicitly expected; management acknowledges future margin pressure, with the defense resting on installed base, service capability and workflow support rather than technology alone.
Red flags
Management could not quantify headcount reductions or detailed ProfitUp phasing; labor negotiations are constructive but implementation and savings timing remain uncertain.
Chinese refractive trends deteriorated sharply at the start of the peak season, and management could not determine whether military-related demand is delayed or permanently lost.
The next VBP round is expected to be at least as harsh as the first, with more Chinese and premium-segment contenders; pricing and volume outcomes remain unmodeled.
Management acknowledged new Chinese refractive competition and admitted it is too early to disclose the margin impact, directly challenging the long-term margin targets.
The expected approximately €150m goodwill impairment, primarily related to IanTECH, underscores prior capital-allocation and execution risk even though it will not affect adjusted EBITA or cash flow.
Portfolio exits and consolidation add execution risk: Katalyst revenue will decline by mid- to high-single-digit millions, QUATERA is being sunset, and handpiece production is moving from Germany to the US.
Forward outlook
adjusted eps
—
FY 2026
official guidance
operating margin
8–10 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue growth
—
FY 2029
management target
operating margin
—
FY 2029
management target
operating margin
16–20 pct
FY 2030
management target
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Earnings transcripts
- Issuer webcastVideo
Conference Call, August 6, 2026
CARL ZEISS MEDITEC AG
- Issuer IR
Go to pdf
CARL ZEISS MEDITEC AG
- Issuer IR
Go to pdf
CARL ZEISS MEDITEC AG
- Issuer webcastVideo
Conference Call, May 12, 2026
CARL ZEISS MEDITEC AG
- Issuer IR
H1 2026 earnings call transcript
CARL ZEISS MEDITEC AG
- Issuer webcastAudio
Conference Call, February 12, 2026
CARL ZEISS MEDITEC AG
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags