Middlefield U.S. Equity Dividend ETF

Recommendation history

• Q3 2025HoldCaterpillar enters 2026 with record $51 billion backlog, 2025 sales of $67.6 billion, and strong demand across all three primary segments, led by Power & Energy. However, the outlook is not a clean buy: 2026 sales are expected around the top end of the 5%-7% long-term growth range, while incremental tariffs rise to roughly $2.6 billion, adjusted operating margin remains near the bottom of its target range, and Power & Energy is capacity constrained.
• Q2 2025HoldHold: Murphy USA delivered Q2 normalized EPS of $7.36 versus $6.56 consensus, but revenue was $5.005 billion versus $5.173 billion expected and fuel volumes fell 3.2% year over year. Cost controls, resilient fuel margins, stronger non-cigarette merchandise and a growing store pipeline support the long-term case, but management now frames 2028 EBITDA potential at roughly $1.2 billion versus the prior $1.3 billion target, with near-term earnings still heavily dependent on fuel margins and demand recovery.
• Q1 2025HoldHold: Murphy USA delivered a material Q1 miss, with normalized EPS of $2.63 versus $3.74 consensus (-29.7%) and revenue of $4.53 billion versus $4.69 billion (-3.5%). April fuel volumes recovered to roughly 100% of prior-year levels and early-May volumes were up 1%-2%, while retail fuel margins held near $0.28 per gallon; however, the earnings recovery still depends on second-half promotions, supply-margin normalization, and a delayed merchandise rebound.
• Q4 2024BuyBuy: Meta delivered a strong Q4, with revenue of $59.9B (+24%), Family of Apps ad revenue of $58.1B (+24%), and a 41% operating margin. AI is already improving recommendations and ad performance, but FY26 capex is set to surge to $115B-$135B while compute remains constrained and Meta still has not demonstrated a competitive frontier model; management nevertheless expects FY26 operating income to exceed 2025 levels.
• Q2 2024HoldHold: Teva delivered a solid Q1, with revenue of approximately $4.0 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $0.53, and underlying revenue growth of 7% excluding Japan and generic Revlimid. The innovative portfolio remains compelling—AUSTEDO revenue rose 41% to $578 million, UZEDY rose 62%, and AJOVY rose 35%—but the near-term earnings path is less clean because AUSTEDO channel inventory remains elevated, Q4 2026 faces IRA-related pricing and purchasing disruption, and management would not quantify the sales potential or ramp of the $700 million Emalex acquisition.
• Q1 2023BuyBuy: Murphy USA delivered a strong Q1, with $5.1 billion of revenue, $220 million of adjusted EBITDA, $4.80 EPS versus $4.17 consensus, 1.4% same-store gallons growth, and 6% merchandise sales growth. Fuel margins remained structurally healthy at roughly $0.29 per gallon including PS&W, while the planned $1.5 billion buyback authorization supports the long-term return case; however, EBITDA and EPS declined year over year, April gallons were down about 4%, and near-term earnings remain exposed to fuel-price volatility.
• Q4 2022BuyBuy: Murphy USA delivered strong FY2022 execution, with revenue of $23.4 billion, EBITDA of $1.2 billion and reported EPS of $28.10, while January fuel volumes rose 4% year over year and merchandise transactions accelerated. The key tension is earnings sensitivity to volatile fuel margins: management’s FY2023 framework spans roughly $800 million-$1.0 billion of adjusted EBITDA, alongside higher investment spending and a Q4 normalized EPS miss of 16.7% versus consensus.