ebitda
1 $billion
FY 2026
official guidance
UMICORE
Last · Brussels€20.32-0.54 (-2.59%)close · yahoo · 7h ago
Market cap€4.9B240.7M sh
P/E · TTM9.8fwd 11.2 · eps 2.08
Beta0.92vs S&P 500
Div yield2.40%annual · TTM
52w range
€14.19€26.98
Volume40.1Ksession
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Strong near-term earnings momentum is offset by dependence on supportive metal prices and unresolved battery-materials execution and collection risk.
Hold: Umicore raised 2026 group EBITDA expectations to approach EUR 1 billion, with Recycling and Specialty Materials driving a strong start and leverage expected significantly below 2x.
The tension is that Battery Materials Solutions remains volume-challenged and the EBITDA improvement increasingly depends on take-or-pay accruals whose eventual collection remains an investor concern.
Themes
- 2026 Ebitda Outlook
- Recycling
- Specialty Materials
- Battery Materials
- Take Or Pay
- Germanium
Near term
Recycling must sustain favorable metal prices and activity levels after the maintenance shutdown; management says performance should more than offset the lower hedge rate and shutdown impact.
Specialty Materials' cobalt upside is expected to be concentrated in H1, with H2 normalizing.
Take-or-pay accruals are increasingly supporting 2026 EBITDA, while invoicing for volume shortfalls occurs only at year-end.
Longer term
Battery Materials Solutions remains the key strategic drag: customer-platform ramp-up is later or weaker than planned, while cost reduction and capital discipline continue.
Germanium demand may be structurally stronger because of Chinese export restrictions and technology and defense applications, but part of the upside is still tied to elevated pricing and availability.
Catalysis remains exposed to declining global internal-combustion-engine production despite resilient current volumes and market position.
Red flags
Management did not quantify the take-or-pay exposure or provide evidence that customers will ultimately pay the accrued shortfalls; the accrual contribution is growing.
The EUR 1 billion EBITDA outlook assumes metal prices remain around Q1 2026 levels, making the upgrade sensitive to commodity-price reversal.
IONWAY continues to receive capital from both parties despite Battery Materials Solutions being the weakest-performing capital-intensive business.
Forward outlook
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Earnings transcripts
- Issuer IR
storage/umicore/hy26-earnings-call-transcript.pdf
UMICORE
- Issuer webcast
Webcast Half year results 2026
UMICORE
- Issuer IR
storage/umicore/2026-q1-and-outlook-conference-call-transcript.pdf
UMICORE
- Issuer IR
transcript-full-year-results-2025.pdf
UMICORE
- Issuer IR
umicore-1h25-results-earnings-call-transcript.pdf
UMICORE
- Issuer IR
storage/umicore/transcript-umicore-fyr-2024.pdf
UMICORE
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags