SONOS, INC.

Recommendation history

• Q1 2022BuyBuy: Murphy USA delivered normalized EPS of $2.96 versus $2.22 consensus and revenue of $3.185 billion versus $3.042 billion, with Q1 fuel margins of $0.225 per gallon. The business is proving unusually resilient—April fuel volumes were down 31.6% but merchandise sales rose 8.3%—while $200 million of cash and low leverage support continued growth; the key risk is that management withdrew fuel-volume guidance and elevated margins may normalize.
• Q4 2021HoldHOLD: OpenText delivered mixed Q2 results—revenue rose 3.2% to $363 million, license revenue increased 7% to $81.2 million, and adjusted EPS was flat at $1.58, while cloud revenue fell 6% and operating cash flow declined to $60.9 million. The GXS acquisition is immediately adjusted-EPS accretive and expands recurring revenue, but the $1.1 billion cash purchase adds execution, accounting, and leverage risk without quantified revenue synergies.
• Q3 2025BuyBuy: Okta delivered 42% revenue growth, 53% RPO growth to $1.58 billion, 123% dollar-based net retention, and record $42 million free cash flow. Management guided FY2022 revenue to $1.06-$1.07 billion, supported by enterprise upsell and CIAM momentum, but the investment case still depends on sustaining growth against Microsoft and newer CIAM competitors while profitability remains modest.
• Q4 2024HoldHOLD: DHI delivered $34.8M Q4 revenue, down 7% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA fell 9% to $9.2M; 2025 guidance of $131M-$135M revenue and a 24% adjusted EBITDA margin implies stabilization, not a demonstrated recovery. ClearanceJobs is the bull case—revenue grew 7% and retention reached 111%—but Dice revenue and bookings both fell 14%, and management explicitly is not budgeting for Dice market improvement in 2025.
• Q2 2024HoldHold: Q1 sales rose 8% to $232.5 million, but adjusted EBITDA was essentially flat and Animal Health EBITDA margin fell 220 bps as inflation, logistics, and SG&A offset growth. FY2023 sales guidance remains $960 million-$1.0 billion and adjusted EBITDA $113 million-$118 million, but adjusted EPS was cut to $1.21-$1.31, while 4.2x gross leverage and negative trailing-12-month free cash flow limit upside.
• Q1 2021HoldHold: Virtus delivered adjusted EPS of $1.24, adjusted operating margin of 27%, and returned $51.2 million of capital, but AUM fell 1% sequentially to $45.2 billion and total net outflows remained $2.2 billion. The improving July flow trend and 83% of rated fund AUM in four- or five-star funds are encouraging, yet earnings remain exposed to continued mutual-fund redemptions—especially the Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund—and revenue was flat sequentially at $62.6 million.
• Q1 2025HoldHold: Q2 showed resilience but not earnings momentum—revenue fell 3% to $811 million, adjusted EPS dropped 40% to $0.52, and adjusted operating margin contracted 300 bps to 6.3%. Dedicated, cost savings and potential capacity exits support a gradual recovery, but management lowered 2023 truck-growth guidance to -4% to -2%, expects another difficult Q3, and conceded TTS could fall below its 12% margin floor for one or two quarters.