revenue
250–265 $million
Q3 2026
official guidance
ROCKET LAB CORPORATION
Last · —$59.18-5.04 (-7.85%)live · yahoo · 1h ago
Market cap$32.88B—
P/E · TTM—fwd — · eps —
Beta—vs S&P 500
Div yield—annual · TTM
52w range
——
Volume—session
| Revenue | $769.1M |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $-113.5M |
| Net income | $-94.3M |
| Free cash flow | $-187.5M |
| Operating margin | -14.8% |
| Net margin | -12.3% |
| Return on equity | -2.7% |
| Period | TTM 2026-06-30 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Hold off on a full-position buy; Rocket Lab's execution and backlog are compelling, but the stock remains a high-risk Neutron/M&A bet.
Q2 revenue reached $234 million, up 62% year over year, with $2.36 billion of backlog and roughly $2.4 billion of liquidity, but free cash flow was negative $110.1 million, Q3 non-GAAP gross-margin guidance falls to 35%-37%, and management acknowledged that the year-end Neutron launch window is narrowing. The bull case is unusually strong demand—more than $1 billion of recent bookings and a $50-$55 million target Neutron ASP—while the bear case is that cash burn, dilution, integration risk and delayed Neutron cadence overwhelm near-term growth.
Themes
- Neutron Development
- Launch Backlog
- Iridium Acquisition
- Mynaric Integration
- Haste Demand
- Space Systems Margins
Near term
Q3 revenue guidance of $250 million-$265 million implies continued strong growth, but the guided gross-margin reset to 35%-37% will test whether Q2's 41.5% non-GAAP margin was substantially helped by the tariff-refund benefit.
Neutron stage testing and final vehicle integration are the key near-term catalysts; management identified fueled stage testing as the highest-risk milestone and said the year-end launch window is narrowing.
Cash burn is likely to remain elevated: Q2 operating cash flow was negative $84.1 million and non-GAAP free cash flow was negative $110.1 million, with additional spending on Neutron tail production and Mynaric supply-chain replenishment.
Launch Services revenue fell 30% sequentially to $44.6 million because of HASTE revenue-recognition mix, underscoring that reported growth will remain lumpy even with a record launch backlog.
Longer term
Neutron demand appears strong before first flight, with customers accepting the $50 million-$55 million target ASP, but the economic thesis depends on moving from a 1, 3, 5 launch ramp toward reliable high cadence and reusability.
Management expects adjusted EBITDA positivity in the quarter after a successful Neutron test flight, but said cash-flow positivity may still be 18-24 months later because Rocket Lab must keep funding a fleet of Neutron vehicles.
Vertical integration is a credible differentiator: Rocket Lab combines launch, satellite platforms and components, and is expanding into GEO satellites, Flatellite spacecraft and European manufacturing through Mynaric.
The proposed Iridium acquisition would add a mature, profitable applications business with 66 satellites, more than 2.5 million subscribers and over $870 million of annual revenue, but analysts highlighted the slower growth profile and the need to accelerate it.
Competitive capacity risk is not immediately fatal because management argues new rival launch capacity is largely pre-committed, but the company still must prove Neutron reliability and cadence against larger launch providers and internal customer demand.
Red flags
The $266 million Space Force HASTE contract includes infrastructure and ongoing operations, so the headline value should not be divided by 18 launches to estimate launch ASP or revenue.
Q2's 41.5% non-GAAP gross margin benefited from a nonrecurring tariff refund, while Q3 guidance drops to 35%-37% due to mix; Mynaric margins are initially pressured by prior supply-chain problems and its insolvency process.
Rocket Lab raised $1.08 billion through an ATM offering during the quarter, creating meaningful dilution and indicating that organic cash generation is not yet sufficient to fund Neutron, acquisitions and working capital.
Iridium is not expected to close until mid-2027 and remains subject to stockholder and regulatory approvals. Management offered strategic synergies but no quantified acquisition economics, synergy targets or pro forma leverage.
Management was explicitly cautious on broadband opportunities: L-band is strategically valuable for safety-critical and IoT applications, but is not suitable for broadband, leaving Rocket Lab exposed to a potentially slower-growth applications mix.
The company is spending ahead of demand on Neutron follow-on vehicles before flight validation; a failed or delayed test could increase inventory risk, defer EBITDA improvement and weaken customer confidence.
Forward outlook
revenue growth
10 pct
Q3 2026
official guidance
gross margin
29–31 pct
Q3 2026
official guidance
gross margin
35–37 pct
Q3 2026
official guidance
ebitda
-23–-17 $million
Q3 2026
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest 10-K · 2026-02-26
- Neutron Delay
- Customer Concentration
- Government Contracts
- Convertible Debt Dilution
- Persistent Losses
- Electron Launches
- Sda Backlog
- Acquisition Integration
Red flags
- Rocket Lab reported net losses of $198.2 million in 2025, $190.2 million in 2024, and $182.6 million in 2023, and expects to remain loss-making for at least the next 12 months.
- Customer concentration is high: the top five customers represented approximately 49% of 2025 revenue and the top five backlog customers represented approximately 77% of backlog at year-end.
- The first-stage tank failed qualification testing in January 2026, forcing a Neutron launch-date reset and creating risk of additional R&D and capital spending.
- The $355.0 million 4.250% convertible notes mature in 2029; $199.3 million of principal was converted in 2025, while weighted-average shares increased to 530.7 million from 495.9 million in 2024.
- The company carried $5.0 million of provisions for contract losses at year-end, primarily tied to a fixed-price SolAero solar-panel agreement.
- Accounts receivable concentration is material: Lockheed Martin represented 16% and Dynetics 15% of net accounts receivable at December 31, 2025.
Upcoming earnings
9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
−$0.02
Est. revenue
257.8M
Earnings transcripts
Press & signals
- GlobeNewswire
Rocket Lab Secures Largest-Ever Electron Commercial Deal: 20-Launch Contract for Synspective
- GlobeNewswire
Iridium Stockholders Approve Acquisition by Rocket Lab
- GlobeNewswire
Rocket Lab Fully Funds Iridium Acquisition, Including Completion of $1.94 Billion ATM
The rest of this company's wire — with summaries and source links — is part of Pro.
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