revenue
1280–1310 $million
FY 2027
official guidance
LUCKY STRIKE ENTERTAINMENT CORPORATION
Last · NYSE$5.14-0.02 (-0.39%)close · yahoo · 15h ago
Market cap$700.73M80.8M sh
P/E · TTM-15.4fwd 34.3 · eps -0.33 · loss
Beta0.65vs S&P 500
Div yield4.65%annual · TTM
52w range
$4.873$9.77
Volume39.5Ksession
| Revenue | $1.2B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $136.8M |
| Net income | $-45.5M |
| Free cash flow | $-9.8M |
| Operating margin | 11.0% |
| Net margin | -3.7% |
| Period | 2026 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Operational recovery is plausible, but leverage and execution risk limit upside.
Hold: fiscal 2027 guidance of $340 million-$360 million adjusted EBITDA and $1.28 billion-$1.31 billion revenue implies recovery from fiscal 2026's $333.2 million EBITDA, but the setup is not compelling enough against $1.77 billion of net debt and $205.3 million of annual interest expense. Water parks, events, lower CapEx and portfolio pruning provide upside, yet same-store revenue was down 0.2% for the year and management acknowledged that doubled marketing spend failed to generate expected ROI.
Themes
- Fiscal 2027 Guidance
- Water Parks
- Events Recovery
- Marketing Roi
- Deleveraging
- Capex Reduction
Near term
The December events quarter is the key proof point: backlog is tracking $10 million higher year over year versus a $30 million decline last year, while events previously caused roughly $40 million of revenue attrition.
Water parks should provide a substantial fiscal 2027 earnings contribution, with roughly 80% of summer earnings recognized in the September quarter; weather and season-pass execution remain important swing factors.
June's World Cup and sports-related comparison should create an easier year-over-year comp, while August was described as flattening rather than clearly positive.
The October CRM launch and continued marketing optimization could lift bookings and conversion, but they will add near-term SG&A pressure.
Longer term
Water parks and Boomers are becoming meaningful counterseasonal earnings contributors; fiscal 2027 water-park EBITDA is framed at $28 million-$33 million and Boomers at $10 million-$15 million.
CapEx is falling from $194 million two years ago to a planned $90 million in fiscal 2027, with management eventually targeting approximately $70 million-$80 million annually after rebranding is complete.
Selling roughly 10 peripheral properties could improve leverage and focus management on higher-quality assets, but proceeds and timing were not quantified.
The core portfolio has a significant profitability gap: pre-2022 properties generate approximately 42% 4-wall EBITDA margins versus 30% for properties built, acquired or invested in after 2022.
League bowling, at roughly $110 million-$120 million before ancillary spending, is a credible growth vector if lane reliability and conditioning improvements translate into sustained participation.
Red flags
Management admitted that not all of the increase in working media spending delivered expected ROI: annual marketing rose from $17 million to $30 million, while engagement was still described as insufficient.
Net debt of $1.77 billion and $205.3 million of interest expense leave limited room for operating disappointment; management's stated goal is only to pay down the revolver by June, and asset-sale proceeds are not included in the roughly $50 million free-cash-flow assumption.
The 30%-32% long-term margin target is not expected in the near term because marketing, systems and water-park investments continue to weigh on profitability.
Water-park earnings remain highly weather-sensitive. Management acknowledged that a cold, wet month can overwhelm pricing actions, and season-pass sales were too low to provide adequate weather protection this season.
California, approximately 20% of the business, comped down 4% versus 1% growth for the rest of the company and is explicitly not included as a forecast upside driver.
The new CRM is the company's largest technology initiative, creating execution risk while SG&A remains elevated.
Management's explanation for the weak June comp relies heavily on one-off sports and geopolitical factors; analyst questioning did not establish that underlying consumer demand has fully normalized.
Forward outlook
ebitda
340–360 $million
FY 2027
official guidance
ebitda
28–33 $million
FY 2027
management framework
ebitda
10–15 $million
FY 2027
management framework
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest 10-K · 2026-08-27
- Same Store Sales
- Acquisition Led Growth
- High Leverage
- Interest Expense
- Lucky Strike Rebrand
- Controlled Company
- Discretionary Spending
Red flags
- Leverage increased materially: total debt rose from $1.322 billion to $1.809 billion, while reported debt fair value was only $1.567 billion at year-end.
- Interest expense of $205.3 million exceeded operating income of $136.8 million, contributing to a $39.5 million pretax loss and $35.8 million net loss despite 4% revenue growth.
- Organic performance is weak: same-store revenue fell $2.2 million to $1.115 billion, with declines in alcoholic beverage and amusement revenue offsetting $8.8 million of incremental walk-in bowling revenue and $4.1 million of league bowling growth.
- The company is a controlled company; Thomas F. Shannon controls a majority of voting power, while Class B shares carry ten votes per share. This limits minority-stockholder influence and may reduce the likelihood of a takeover premium.
- Preferred-stock dividends are cumulative and $7.1 million was added to the liquidation preference in fiscal 2026, while 10.3 million as-converted preferred shares were excluded from diluted EPS because they were antidilutive.
Upcoming earnings
1:30 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
−$0.14
Est. revenue
299.3M