adjusted eps
0.26–0.3 $per share
Q2 2024
official guidance
KNIGHT-SWIFT TRANSPORTATION HOLDINGS INC.
Last · NYSE$63.21+0.20 (+0.32%)close · yahoo · 17h ago
Market cap$10.29B162.8M sh
P/E · TTM234fwd 15.8 · eps 0.27
Beta1.21vs S&P 500
Div yield1.27%annual · TTM
52w range
$41.24$82.86
Volume3.6Msession
| Revenue | $3.9B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $133.4M |
| Net income | $41.9M |
| Operating margin | 3.4% |
| Net margin | 1.1% |
| Return on equity | 0.6% |
| Period | 2026 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Wait for evidence that truckload capacity is tightening and margins are recovering.
Knight-Swift’s Q1 was weak:
adjusted EPS was $0.12, or $0.20 excluding the $19.5 million insurance loss, while revenue excluding fuel rose 11% but adjusted operating income fell 68.5%. Management guides to $0.26-$0.30 of adjusted EPS in Q2 and $0.31-$0.35 in Q3 without assuming any freight-rate recovery, leaving a credible cost and LTL recovery case but insufficient visibility for a clean buy.
Themes
- Truckload Recession
- Ltl Expansion
- Us Xpress Integration
- Freight Rates
- Fleet Right Sizing
- Intermodal Recovery
Near term
Q2-Q3 earnings improvement is expected to come from normal seasonality, LTL recovery, fleet rationalization, and utilization—not higher truckload rates.
Truckload spot exposure has risen from high-single digits in late 2023 to low-double digits after lost contractual freight, which could pressure revenue per mile and utilization near term.
LTL operating ratio should recover from 90% in Q1 toward the mid-80s, but terminal openings and staffing create execution and start-up cost risk.
Intermodal is expected to approach breakeven in Q3, with small profitability targeted in Q4, but the business remains a drag until volume returns.
Longer term
LTL expansion is the strongest structural upside: 32 locations are planned for 2024, increasing door count 16% from year-end 2023, while network volumes rose 90% year over year in Q1.
Management targets a nationwide LTL network reaching $2 billion of annual revenue over the medium term, potentially reducing reliance on cyclical truckload earnings.
U.S. Xpress cost and contractual-rate improvements could create operating leverage in the next upcycle, but management acknowledged margin convergence may take until the second upcycle.
The long-term truckload thesis depends on excess capacity exiting and demand recovering; management sees capacity shrinking, but not fast enough, and could not identify the timing or magnitude of a market catalyst.
Right-sizing excess trailers and some tractors should improve fixed-cost absorption and utilization, but the call confirms the company entered the downturn with more equipment and overhead than needed.
Red flags
Management explicitly assumes no rate improvement through Q3, while truckload revenue per loaded mile was down 2.5% sequentially and 10% year over year.
The recovery thesis remains timing-dependent: management offered no measurable indicator for when excess capacity will clear or when pricing power returns.
Analysts pressed on the unusually large LTL revenue-per-hundredweight assumptions and Yellow lapping; management mainly attributed the outlook to seasonality and did not provide a detailed quantified bridge.
Intermodal profitability has been delayed after reliance on large project customers proved unsustainable, highlighting customer-concentration and forecasting risk.
Q1 included an $18 million year-over-year increase in net interest expense, reducing earnings conversion even if operating performance improves.
Forward outlook
adjusted eps
0.31–0.35 $per share
Q3 2024
official guidance
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
10:00 PM UTC+2
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$0.76
Est. revenue
2.2B
Earnings transcripts
- Issuer IR
Q3 2025 earnings call transcript
KNIGHT-SWIFT TRANSPORTATION HOLDINGS INC.
- Issuer webcastAudio
Q1 2024 earnings call transcript
KNIGHT-SWIFT TRANSPORTATION HOLDINGS INC.
- Issuer IR
Q1 2024 earnings call transcript
KNIGHT-SWIFT TRANSPORTATION HOLDINGS INC.
- Issuer webcastAudio
Q4 2022 earnings call transcript
KNIGHT-SWIFT TRANSPORTATION HOLDINGS INC.
- Issuer IR
Q4 2022 earnings call transcript
KNIGHT-SWIFT TRANSPORTATION HOLDINGS INC.
- Issuer webcastAudio
Q1 2022 earnings call transcript
KNIGHT-SWIFT TRANSPORTATION HOLDINGS INC.
Documents
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