HUBSPOT, INC.

Recommendation history

• Q4 2025HoldHOLD: HubSpot exited 2025 strongly, with $3.1 billion of revenue growing 18.2% in constant currency, 18.6% full-year operating margin, 103.5% NRR, and early AI-agent adoption. However, 2026 guidance calls for only 16% constant-currency revenue growth and 20% operating margin, while management could not quantify how much Core Seats or credits contribute to growth; the 20% long-term growth goal remains an aspiration rather than an embedded forecast.
• Q3 2025HoldHold: HubSpot delivered solid Q3 execution with $810 million of revenue, up 18.4% year over year in constant currency, and a 20% operating margin, but Q4 guidance implies growth deceleration to 16% constant currency. The bull case is improving net new ARR, 35% growth in deals above $5,000 MRR, multi-hub adoption and strong AI usage; the tension is that NRR is only 103%, billings growth was 19%, and AI/credits have not yet produced material quantified monetization.
• Q2 2025HoldHold: HubSpot delivered solid Q2 execution—19% reported revenue growth, 17% operating margin, 20% constant-currency billings growth, and 103% NRR—but the quality of expansion remains dependent on seat upgrades rather than broad-based customer monetization. AI adoption is encouraging, yet credit revenue is only beginning and management provided little evidence of recurring consumption; with FY2025 growth guided to 17%, the call supports durability but not a clean buy.
• Q1 2025HoldHold: HubSpot delivered solid Q1 execution—revenue grew 18% constant currency, customers rose 19% to 258,000, and free cash flow was $122 million—but FY2025 guidance remains a prudent 16% growth outlook at $3.036–$3.044 billion. AI adoption is encouraging, with Customer Agent serving 2,500-plus customers and Copilot users exceeding 660,000, but management explicitly expects no material AI monetization contribution in 2025 and offered no quantified medium-term consumption growth algorithm.
• Q4 2024HoldHOLD: HubSpot delivered strong Q4 execution, with revenue up 21% reported, 19% operating margin, 104% NRR, 9,800 net adds, and $163 million of free cash flow. However, FY25 guidance decelerates to 14% reported revenue growth ($2.985-$2.995 billion), while AI has no direct monetization in the outlook and Q4 NRR improvement was mainly pricing-driven rather than a broad recovery in expansion demand.
• Q3 2022HoldHold: HubSpot delivered strong Q3 execution—revenue grew 31% reported and 38% in constant currency, with 8,000+ net adds and 9% non-GAAP operating margin—but the demand deterioration is real. Inbound demand slowed, sales cycles lengthened across new business and expansions, NRR fell to 109%, and Q4 guidance implies only about 20% reported growth amid a 9-point FX headwind; 2023 visibility remains limited.
• Q2 2022HoldHold: HubSpot delivered strong Q2 execution, with revenue up 36% reported/41% constant currency, billings up 30% reported/39% constant currency, and 82% gross margin. However, management cut FY22 revenue growth to 30% reported, reflecting a 1.5-point macro headwind beyond FX, while deal cycles lengthened broadly and guidance assumes no recovery in the second half. The platform-consolidation thesis remains credible, but near-term demand and valuation support are not yet clear enough for a clean buy.