CRITEO S.A.

Recommendation history

• Q1 2026HoldHold: Criteo cut its 2026 outlook to low-single-digit constant-currency Contribution ex-TAC decline, with Q2 Contribution ex-TAC guided to $260 million-$264 million, down 9%-11%, despite a 32%-34% adjusted EBITDA margin target. Retail Media is healthy underneath a $75 million client-scope headwind and OpenAI traction is promising, but softer European/APAC demand, reduced budgets at several large U.S. clients and still-unmonetized AI initiatives keep the near-term risk/reward mixed.
• Q4 2026HoldHold: Criteo delivered solid 2025 cash generation—$1.2 billion contribution ex-TAC, up 3.5% constant currency, $211 million free cash flow—but 2026 guidance is weak at flat to up 2%, with Q1 contribution ex-TAC down 9%-11% and adjusted EBITDA margin falling to 32%-34%. The bull case is high-teens to 20% underlying Retail Media growth, mid-single-digit Performance Media growth and strong GO/agentic optionality; the tension is that agentic commerce has no revenue in the plan, no clear monetization model, and the key growth claims remain largely pilot-stage.
• Q3 2025HoldHold: Q3 execution was strong—revenue was $470 million, contribution ex-TAC grew 6% year over year at constant currency, adjusted EBITDA rose 28% to $105 million, and free cash flow increased 74% to $67 million. However, the near-term outlook remains muted: 2025 contribution ex-TAC growth is only 3%-4%, Q4 contribution ex-TAC is expected to decline 3%-5% at constant currency, and management still expects a roughly $75 million Retail Media headwind in 2026. The bull case is operating leverage, Commerce GO!, Google-enabled Retail Media demand, and CTV; the bear case is that these initiatives are being asked to offset client-related revenue losses and unproven agentic-AI monetization.
• Q2 2025HoldHold: Criteo delivered solid Q2 execution, with $483 million revenue, $292 million contribution ex-TAC up 7% year over year at constant currency, and $89 million adjusted EBITDA, while raising 2025 Performance Media expectations. However, total growth remains modest: 2025 contribution ex-TAC guidance is only 3%–4%, Retail Media is still guided to low- to mid-single-digit growth because of two client issues, and Agentic AI monetization remains undefined.
• Q1 2025HoldHold: Criteo delivered a strong Q1—$451M revenue, $92M adjusted EBITDA (+30% YoY), $1.10 adjusted EPS (+38%), and 7% constant-currency contribution ex-TAC growth—but the outlook reset is material. FY2025 contribution ex-TAC growth is now only low single digits, Q2 contribution ex-TAC is guided to $270M-$278M (-2% to flat constant currency), and the large retail-media client change creates a $25M 2025 headwind and approximately $75M through the first 10 months of 2026. The long-term platform, AI, agency, and retail-media opportunity remains attractive, but management itself expects much of the new-client and Commerce Go ramp to show up in 2026 rather than 2025.
• Q4 2025HoldHold: Criteo delivered a strong Q4 and structural progress, with 2024 contribution ex-TAC up 11% at constant currency, adjusted EBITDA margin at 35%, free cash flow up 65% to $182 million, and Retail Media contribution ex-TAC up 25%. However, 2025 guidance implies only mid-single-digit companywide contribution ex-TAC growth and a 33%-34% adjusted EBITDA margin, while the CEO transition, major adtech-client disruption and competitive pressure from Amazon remain unresolved.
• Q3 2024HoldHold after a strong Q3, not a clean buy: contribution ex-TAC grew 9% constant currency, retail media grew 23%, adjusted EBITDA rose 20% to $82 million, and FY2024 contribution ex-TAC guidance was tightened to 10%-11% growth with a 32%-33% EBITDA margin. The bull case is accelerating retail media demand, 29% activated media-spend growth, Microsoft integration potential and expanding operating leverage; the tension is Q4 growth guidance of only 3%-5%, a concentrated adtech-services decline and unresolved 2025 visibility, including the CEO transition and cookie-policy risk.