ARCHER-DANIELS-MIDLAND COMPANY

Recommendation history

• Q4 2025HoldADM is a hold, not a clean buy: Q4 adjusted EPS was $0.87 and FY2025 EPS was $3.43, while 2026 guidance of $3.60-$4.25 implies recovery but carries unusually wide policy and timing risk. The bull case is eventual US biofuel/RVO clarity, stronger China exports, Nutrition recovery and $500-$750 million of cost savings; the key tension is that 2025 AS&O operating profit fell 34%, crushing fell 81% for the year, and management could not quantify the timing or magnitude of the rebound.
• Q3 2025HoldADM is a hold after a weak, policy-dependent quarter: Q3 adjusted EPS was $0.92 and segment operating profit was $845 million, while FY2025 adjusted EPS guidance fell to $3.25-$3.50 from approximately $4.00. The potential 2026-27 recovery from higher biofuel mandates and China soybean demand is credible, but crush margins remain depressed and the timing and details of both catalysts are unresolved.
• Q1 2025HoldHold: ADM delivered Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.70 and $747 million of segment operating profit, but AS&O operating profit fell 52% to $412 million and Q2 crush margins are trending below Q1. Management retained FY2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.00-$4.75 but now expects the lower end; the upside case depends heavily on stronger second-half RVO-driven biofuel and crush margins, while Nutrition recovery and $200-$300 million of 2025 savings provide partial support.
• Q4 2024HoldHold: ADM delivered Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.14 and FY2024 adjusted EPS of $4.74, but 2025 guidance of $4.00-$4.75 implies another difficult year, with Q1 AS&O operating profit expected down approximately 50%. The bull case is $200-$300 million of 2025 cost savings, a Decatur East restart and potential second-half biofuel/crush-margin recovery; the tension is that this recovery depends heavily on unresolved policy, trade and commodity conditions while core 2025 segment margins are guided lower.
• Q1 2024HoldHOLD: ADM delivered Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.46 and $1.3 billion of adjusted segment operating profit, broadly in line with expectations, while returning $1.3 billion through share repurchases. The bull case is improving Nutrition execution, cost savings and renewable-fuels-driven demand, but near-term soy crush margins are headed toward the low end of the $35-$60/metric-ton range and Nutrition remains impaired by Decatur East, with full-year EPS guidance unchanged.
• Q1 2023HoldADM delivered a strong Q1 with adjusted EPS of $2.09, $1.7 billion of adjusted segment operating profit and 14% trailing-four-quarter adjusted ROIC, while reiterating 2023 EPS guidance of $6.00-$7.00. However, the outlook depends on a lower Q2 crush contribution and a heavily back-half-loaded Nutrition recovery, making the risk/reward too dependent on favorable execution and commodity conditions for a clean buy.
• Q2 2022HoldHold: ADM delivered an unusually strong Q2, with adjusted EPS of $2.15, $1.8 billion of segment operating profit and full-year 2022 EPS guidance above $6.50. The near-term outlook remains strong across oilseeds, carbohydrates and Nutrition, but analysts could not get a 2023 earnings framework, while management acknowledged that some Q2 gains came from favorable timing and that margins may revert from current peaks. Note: the supplied transcript is for Archer-Daniels-Midland, not Whirlpool Corporation.