携程集团-S · Trip.com Group Limited

Recommendation history

• Q3 2019HoldHold: Q3 was operationally strong, with revenue up 12% to RMB10.5 billion, non-GAAP operating profit up 40% to RMB2.6 billion, and margin expanding to 25%. However, Q4 guidance slows to 8%-13% revenue growth amid a full-quarter Hong Kong/macro impact, while low-end hotel discounting and a less certain outbound market temper the upside case.
• Q2 2019HoldHold. Q2 was strong: revenue rose 19% year over year to RMB8.7 billion, non-GAAP operating profit grew 43% to RMB1.7 billion, and operating margin expanded to 20%. However, Q3 revenue guidance of 10%-15% growth, including a 400-500 bps headwind from Hong Kong, Taiwan, weaker air-ticket pricing and macro uncertainty, makes the near-term risk/reward less compelling despite continued share gains and operating leverage.
• Q1 2019BuyBuy: Ctrip delivered strong operating leverage, with Q1 revenue up 21% to RMB8.2 billion, non-GAAP operating profit up 42% to RMB1.4 billion, and margin expanding to 17% from 14% a year ago. The key tension is a more cautious Q2 revenue outlook of 16%-21% amid industry slowdown and trade uncertainty, but disciplined marketing, 30% targeted-city user growth, and faster international expansion support continued share gains.
• Q4 2018HoldHold: Ctrip delivered strong demand momentum—Q4 revenue rose 22% year over year to RMB7.6 billion and GMV increased 30%—with Q1 2019 revenue growth guided to 18%-23%. However, profitability weakened materially: full-year non-GAAP operating margin fell to 14% from 18%, while Q4 margin was only 3%; management’s long-term leverage claims were not supported with segment-level targets, and competition from Meituan remains a key unresolved risk.
• Q3 2018HoldHold: Ctrip delivered solid underlying momentum—Q3 revenue rose 15% to RMB9.4 billion, trailing-12-month GMV grew about 30% to RMB690 billion, and non-GAAP operating margin reached 20%. However, Q4 guidance implies a sharp profitability reset to just 0%-1% non-GAAP operating margin, while gross margin is expected to remain at 75%-80% and management offered no clear 2019 growth outlook; the long-term platform thesis is intact, but the near-term risk/reward is not a clean buy.
• Q2 2018BuyBuy: Ctrip delivered RMB7.3bn of Q2 revenue, up 13% year over year, with non-GAAP operating profit of RMB1.2bn and a 16% margin; Q3 guidance implies 13%-18% revenue growth and roughly 20% operating margin. The investment case is supported by 21% accommodation growth, approximately 40% low-end hotel and international room-night growth, and strong outbound expansion, but gross margin fell to 80% and management still has to prove that service investments and lower-tier-city competition will not permanently dilute profitability.
• Q1 2018BuyBuy: Ctrip delivered solid Q1 execution with RMB6.7bn revenue (+11% YoY), RMB966m non-GAAP operating profit (+8%), 14% operating margin, and accommodation revenue growth of 23%. Q2 guidance points to acceleration—revenue growth of 12%-17%, accommodation growth of 20%-25%, and non-GAAP operating margin of 15%-16%—although air-ticket monetization remains pressured and customer-centric investments sacrifice near-term profitability.