revenue
13700–14200 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
RHEINMETALL AG
Last · —$1000.60+47.20 (+4.95%)live · yahoo · 1s ago
Market cap——
P/E · TTM37.8fwd — · eps —
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52w range
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Strong execution and backlog are offset by cash intensity, political award risk, and reliance on uncontracted Arminius proceeds.
Rheinmetall delivered a strong H1:
revenue rose 39% to EUR5.5 billion, operating result increased 115%, margin reached 17.1%, and backlog reached EUR80.4 billion with 70% fixed orders. The thesis remains attractive on defense rearmament and visibility, but the call exposed material political/program risk around Arminius and F126, while EUR1.6 billion of H1 operating cash outflow makes the investment dependent on year-end prepayments; stance: hold.
Themes
- H1 2026 Results
- Arminius Boxer
- F126 Cancellation
- Backlog Visibility
- Cash Flow Prepayments
- Ammunition Capacity
Near term
Arminius negotiations are expected to conclude in September, with a Bundestag decision targeted for 9 December and potential Rheinmetall revenue of EUR14.4–14.5 billion from the fixed vehicle and service contracts; the timing and award remain unconfirmed.
Year-end cash flow is highly sensitive to Romanian prepayments and a potential Arminius down payment of more than EUR3 billion; a slip into January could pressure sentiment without changing long-term demand.
Q3 margins are expected to remain in line, with the usual stronger Q4 weighting, but investors will monitor whether XM30-related effects and back-end-loaded deliveries disrupt the expected step-up.
The company reduced 2026 revenue guidance by EUR300 million following cancellation of F126 and expects 2026 revenue of EUR13.7–14.2 billion at around 19% operating margin.
Longer term
EUR80.4 billion backlog and 90% fixed coverage of anticipated sales for the next 2.5 years provide unusually strong revenue visibility; management still argues that roughly 30% annual growth is achievable in coming years.
Weapons and ammunition capacity expansion remains the core structural opportunity, including medium-caliber capacity above 1 million rounds and Aschau powder capacity of 4,500 tonnes, although some facilities have been delayed.
Air defense, drones, missiles, autonomy, and naval systems diversify the growth mix; management is targeting naval revenue of around EUR5 billion and profitability of around 15% by 2030.
US growth could be strategically significant through XM30, RCH155, ammunition, and autonomous systems, but qualification and political decisions remain ahead of revenue realization.
Management’s response to analyst pushback was that crewed vehicles remain necessary alongside drones, supporting continued investment in Boxer and other protected vehicles rather than a wholesale shift away from land systems.
Red flags
F126 was stopped despite management saying technical diligence, funding, and procurement discussions were advanced, demonstrating that political and legal considerations can override apparently green-lighted programs.
Management repeatedly described EUR14.4–14.5 billion of Arminius-related Rheinmetall business as highly likely but explicitly said the frame options are not fixed; the call therefore does not justify treating the larger EUR26 billion option package as backlog.
Operating free cash flow was negative EUR1.6 billion in H1, inventory was built to secure future supply, net financial position was negative EUR2.7 billion, and equity ratio fell to 28%. The cash recovery depends heavily on customer prepayments.
The Ukrainian artillery plant is delayed by two years, while the acquisition of additional naval-yard capacity remains undecided after F126 was lost; both raise execution and fixed-cost absorption risks.
The Anduril Barracuda partnership has not produced a product ready for German qualification, and management acknowledged that not every partnership will succeed. This weakens confidence in planned partner-led growth until products are fielded.
Forward outlook
operating margin
19 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue growth
30 pct
FY 2027
management framework
revenue
5000 $million
FY 2030
management target
operating margin
15 pct
FY 2030
management target
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
4:30 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$7.00
Est. revenue
3.2B
Earnings transcripts
Press & signals
- Satelight
Rheinmetall gambled on Germany’s doomed warship project — and lost
- Satelight
Germany set to scrap plans to build its biggest warship since second world war
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags