FUCHS SE

Recommendation history

• Q1 2026HoldHold: FUCHS delivered a strong Q1, with sales of EUR 934 million (+1% reported, +5% organic), EBIT of EUR 125 million (+16%) and gross margin of 35.1%, but the result included a EUR 7 million property-sale gain. Management raised sales expectations to double-digit growth and significantly above EUR 3.7 billion, while keeping EBIT guidance at around EUR 450 million and cutting free cash flow before acquisitions to significantly below EUR 270 million; analyst pushback highlighted substantial implied margin compression and management could not quantify the pricing or raw-material bridge.
• FY 2025HoldHold: FUCHS delivered resilient 2025 results—sales rose 1% to EUR3.6bn, EBIT reached a record EUR435m and free cash flow before acquisitions increased 3% to EUR316m—but 2026 guidance of roughly EUR3.7bn sales and EUR450m EBIT offers limited upside while raw-material visibility is exceptionally poor. The core bull case is strong Asia-Pacific execution and pricing resilience; the key tension is weaker Americas profitability, a projected FCF decline to around EUR270m and no quantified assumption for passing through new input-cost inflation.
• Q1 2025HoldFUCHS delivered a credible Q3 recovery, with sales up 1% year-to-date to EUR 2.7 billion, Q3 EBIT up 16% sequentially and free cash flow before acquisitions of EUR 181 million, but nine-month EBIT remains down 2% at EUR 326 million. Asia and North America are improving and cost controls are helping, yet management admitted visibility remains poor after the July guidance cut, Europe is weak and 2025 still implies essentially no reported sales growth; the risk/reward is not a clean buy.
• H1 2025HoldHold: FUCHS delivered 2% H1 sales growth and €81 million free cash flow before acquisitions, but EPS fell 7% and EBIT missed expectations as North American high-margin demand weakened. Management cut 2025 EBIT guidance by 6% to roughly 2024’s record level, while retaining about €260 million free cash flow guidance; the plan depends on cost controls rather than a market recovery.
• 2025-03-21HoldFUCHS delivered a strong 2024: sales were flat, but EBIT rose 5%, EBIT margin expanded 0.6 percentage points, EPS increased 10%, and cash conversion reached roughly 100%. Management guides for record 2025 sales of about €3.7 billion and EBIT of €460 million, supported by volume growth and mix, but weak European industrial demand, tariff uncertainty, elevated personnel and digitalisation costs, and senior management turnover make the outlook insufficiently clean for a buy.
• Q3 2024HoldHold: FUCHS delivered a strong 9M performance despite weak end markets—EBIT rose 7%, EBIT margin reached 12.5% versus 11.6%, gross margin expanded to 34.6% from 31.9%, and free cash flow was nearly €200 million. However, management left 2024 guidance unchanged at €3.6 billion sales, around €430 million EBIT and €250 million free cash flow, while Q4 seasonality, soft automotive demand and limited visibility make the upside case dependent on execution rather than demand recovery.
• H1 2024HoldHold: FUCHS delivered a resilient H1, with EBIT up €18 million or 9% year over year and EBIT margin expanding to 12.4% from 11.0%, despite slightly lower sales. The bull case is improving volumes—up 3% in Q2—broad regional growth, and strong specialty and aftermarket demand; the tension is that management only reiterated guidance, expects a smaller Q3 step-up than last year, and remains unable to rule out raw-material volatility.