NUSCALE POWER CORPORATION

Recommendation history

• Q4 2025HoldHold: NuScale ended 2025 with $1.3 billion of liquidity, but execution remains unproven. Q4 revenue was only $1.81 million versus $8.76 million consensus and GAAP EPS was $(0.80) versus $(0.15); the central ENTRA1–TVA PPA is still unsigned after management’s prior end-2025 target slipped, while key financing and timing details remained undisclosed.
• Q3 2025HoldHOLD: NuScale exited Q3 with $753.8 million of liquidity after raising $475.2 million, but revenue was only $8.2 million and the core TVA opportunity remains a nonbinding term sheet rather than a firm PPA or order. The 6 GW/72-module pipeline and NRC-approved design are meaningful catalysts, but management still could not quantify timing, economics, safeguards, or when the roughly $3 billion-plus PMA outlays would be recovered, while dilution and execution risk remain substantial.
• Q2 2025HoldNuScale remains technologically differentiated, but the investment case is still execution-dependent: Q2 revenue rose to $8.1 million from $1.0 million, while liquidity was $489.9 million and operating expenses were $44.9 million. Management still targets hard U.S. customer contracts by year-end 2025, but no order was signed on the call; with H2 spending set to increase and RoPower's final investment decision pushed toward late 2026, the risk/reward supports holding rather than buying ahead of proof of demand.
• Q1 2025HoldHOLD: NuScale reported Q1 revenue of $13.4 million versus $1.4 million a year ago, with $521.4 million of cash and short-term investments and roughly two years of runway. The commercial thesis is improving—management expects a firm customer order in 2025 and says a contract could generate upfront module cash—but no binding order exists, and delivery slips to 2031 if closure is delayed.
• Q4 2024HoldNuScale ended 2024 with $446.7 million of cash and sharply lower operating expenses, but the commercialization story remains largely uncontracted: $37 million of FY2024 revenue was driven by RoPower work, while prospective U.S. data-center projects are still negotiating power-purchase agreements. The 77-MWe module upgrade and 12-module long-lead procurement improve timing and positioning, but absent signed customers or revenue guidance, the risk/reward supports a hold rather than a buy.
• Q3 2024HoldNuScale delivered only $0.5 million of Q3 revenue versus $10.71 million consensus and a $45.5 million net loss, though operating expense fell 56% year over year to $41.2 million and cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments totaled $161.7 million with no debt. The long-term SMR/data-center opportunity is attractive, but management still offered no signed hyperscaler contract, deployment date, or financial outlook; the $20 million RoPower deposit is the clearest commercial progress. Stance: hold pending binding customer agreements and evidence that projects can be financed and deployed.
• Q2 2024HoldHold: NuScale has a credible regulatory and manufacturing lead, but the call still lacked commercial proof. Q2 revenue was only $1 million, net loss was $74.4 million including a $36.7 million non-cash warrant expense, and cash was $136 million with no debt; management provided no revenue guidance or magnitude for the new Fluor agreement. The bull case is Romania FEED Phase 2 and rising AI/data-center power demand, while the key tension is that no hyperscaler project has been announced and major transactions remain unfinanced and uncontracted.