revenue
—
Q3 2026
official guidance
GCM GROSVENOR INC.
Last · NASDAQ$12.65-0.19 (-1.48%)close · yahoo · 17h ago
Market cap$773.25M61.1M sh
P/E · TTM24.3fwd 11.8 · eps 0.52
Beta0.89vs S&P 500
Div yield3.74%annual · TTM
52w range
$9.30$14.87
Volume276.3Ksession
| Revenue | $259.1M |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $56.0M |
| Net income | $15.0M |
| Free cash flow | $84.1M |
| Operating margin | 21.6% |
| Net margin | 5.8% |
| Return on equity | 12.3% |
| Period | 2026 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Operationally, GCM Grosvenor delivered a strong quarter:
fee-paying AUM rose 13% year over year to $78 billion, fee-related revenue increased 11% to $111 million, and FRE grew 21% to $50 million at a 45% margin. However, this is not a clean buy based on the call alone: a large portion of the earnings upside narrative rests on volatile, unrealized SpaceX marks, while realizations remain subdued and management offered limited quantitative visibility into the fundraising pipeline.
Themes
- Fee Paying Aum
- Ars Growth
- Spacex Valuation
- Credit Secondaries
- Private Credit Risk
- Wealth Channel
Near term
Q3 ARS management fees are expected to rise approximately 10% sequentially, implying nearly 20% year-over-year growth; this is the clearest near-term earnings catalyst.
Second-half fundraising is expected to exceed the first-half $3.9 billion, but management provided no dollar target or fund-by-fund visibility. Credit, infrastructure, evergreen products, and wealth/insurance channels are expected to contribute broadly.
The next quarter should show a meaningful increase in unrealized carried interest because private-markets marks lag by one quarter and Q3 will incorporate higher SpaceX valuations.
Share repurchases remain supportive, with $55 million left under the authorization, alongside the $0.12 quarterly dividend.
Longer term
Fee-paying AUM, contracted not-yet-fee-paying AUM of $9.7 billion, and a 45% FRE margin support a credible compounding management-fee and operating-leverage thesis.
Credit is becoming a major growth platform, with nearly $18 billion of AUM, $1.4 billion of first-half fundraising, and a newly closed $1.2 billion credit secondaries platform. Its diversification across strategies could be a competitive advantage if private-credit concerns remain concentrated in direct lending.
The wealth and insurance channels contributed 23% and 18% of year-to-date fundraising, respectively, versus smaller shares of beginning-year AUM, indicating distribution expansion; management cautioned that product and distribution investments will take time to become material.
Infrastructure appears to be a durable growth area, but management's claims around its long runway were largely qualitative rather than supported by new targets.
The firm has substantial unrealized carry—$965 million gross and $493 million attributable to GCMG—but converting that value into cash earnings depends on a recovery in middle-market exits and realizations, whose timing management explicitly said is unpredictable.
Red flags
SpaceX is now valued at approximately $3.5 billion versus $150 million invested, but the gain is unrealized, much of the exposure remains locked up, and underlying managers control the timing and form of exits. Every $10 move in the SpaceX share price changes estimated performance fees by approximately $4 million.
The $35 million-$40 million estimate of unrealized annual performance fees assumes a $110 SpaceX share price, making incentive-fee expectations unusually sensitive to a single issuer and potentially obscuring the underlying recurring earnings trend.
An analyst asked for more detail on fundraising by fund type and the expected second-half pickup. Management could not initially provide the requested Q2 breakdown and ultimately gave only broad qualitative guidance, limiting confidence in the pipeline claim.
Management acknowledged that deal activity and realizations are not yet robust. The upside from $493 million of firm-attributable unrealized carry therefore lacks a clear near-term conversion path.
Private-credit scrutiny around valuation, software exposure, leverage, and liquidity remains a sector risk. Management characterized GCMG's exposure as limited and diversified but did not quantify that exposure.
The call contained no new quantitative profitability targets or valuation framework, so the stock's risk/reward cannot be judged from operating momentum alone; investors should avoid paying for SpaceX-related carry as if it were recurring cash earnings.
Forward outlook
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
1:30 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$0.21
Est. revenue
143.3M
Earnings transcripts
Press & signals
- GlobeNewswire
GCM Grosvenor Reports Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Results With GAAP Net Income of $9.6 Million, Fee-Related Earnings Up 21%, and Adjusted Net Income Up 22% Year-Over-Year
- GlobeNewswire
GCM Grosvenor Raises $1.2 Billion Across Inaugural Credit Secondaries Fund and Related Strategies
- GlobeNewswire
GCM Grosvenor Expands European Business Development Team with Two Strategic Hires in Frankfurt