revenue
486–487 $million
Q2 2027
official guidance
ELASTIC N.V.
Last · NYSE$92.06-2.26 (-2.40%)close · yahoo · 13h ago
Market cap$9.67B105.0M sh
P/E · TTM26.3fwd 23.3 · eps 3.50
Beta1.04vs S&P 500
Div yield0.00%annual · TTM
52w range
$42.05$108.00
Volume1.6Msession
| Revenue | $1.8B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $-23.6M |
| Net income | $375.6M |
| Free cash flow | $349.0M |
| Operating margin | -1.3% |
| Net margin | 20.8% |
| Return on equity | 29.0% |
| Period | TTM 2026-07-31 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Strong execution is offset by still-moderate growth and unresolved monetization and competitive questions.
Elastic delivered a strong Q1:
revenue rose 15% to $478.1 million, sales-led subscription revenue accelerated to 18%, CRPO grew 21%, and FY27 revenue guidance was raised to $1.998-$2.010 billion with 19.4% non-GAAP operating margin. The AI/search and security thesis is gaining traction, but 111% NER, flat monthly cloud revenue, early-stage observability initiatives, and limited quantified evidence of AI-driven expansion make this a hold rather than a clean buy.
Themes
- Q1 Fy2027
- Ai Search
- Security
- Observability Metrics
- Cloud Consumption
- Crpo Rpo
Near term
Q2 guidance calls for $486-$487 million of revenue, approximately 15% constant-currency growth, and $0.80-$0.82 of adjusted EPS.
Second-half acceleration and Q4 growth are embedded in the outlook; execution against pipeline, consumption, and sales productivity assumptions will be key.
The September 22 metrics webinar could provide evidence of customer adoption and competitive positioning for Columnar Mode and PromQL.
NER may remain pressured before the trailing four-quarter metric reflects improving constant-currency growth.
Monthly Elastic Cloud revenue was only $50.2 million and grew 1%, leaving smaller-customer demand a near-term weakness despite 27% annual cloud revenue growth.
Longer term
AI penetration reached 37% of customers with more than $100,000 ACV, up from 21% a year ago; further penetration and cross-sell across search, security, and observability are central to the 20%-plus sales-led subscription growth target.
The open deployment model across cloud, self-managed, and air-gapped environments is a credible differentiation for regulated industries and government customers.
Columnar Mode, native Prometheus ingestion, and the Deductive AI acquisition could materially expand Elastic's observability opportunity, but management acknowledged the metrics business is still early.
Elastic must prove that its retrieval, agent, and security capabilities can maintain differentiation as hyperscalers, data-platform vendors, vector databases, and LLM providers add competing context and agent tooling.
Sustained 20% CRPO growth and 27% RPO growth support durable demand, although conversion of commitments into consumption and revenue remains important.
Red flags
Management did not quantify security revenue or provide measurable AI-cohort expansion rates, making it difficult to assess whether AI adoption is translating into material incremental ACV.
The 111% NER declined from 112%, and management attributed the change to historical growth; the promised recovery is therefore not yet demonstrated in reported results.
Monthly cloud revenue growth of 1% suggests weakness among smaller customers and contrasts with the stronger sales-led and annual cloud metrics.
Observability metrics and AI SRE were repeatedly described as early or promising, while the call provided no bookings, revenue, win-rate, or margin contribution data.
Management cited competitive wins and broad platform differentiation but offered limited objective evidence against pure-play vector databases, Palantir, incumbent observability vendors, or other data-platform competitors.
Restructuring charges were approximately $19.9 million in Q1, with another $2-$5 million expected this fiscal year; adjusted free cash flow was strong but included significant one-time effects.
Forward outlook
revenue growth
15 pct
Q2 2027
official guidance
operating margin
19 pct
Q2 2027
official guidance
adjusted eps
0.8–0.82 $per share
Q2 2027
official guidance
revenue
1998–2010 $million
FY 2027
official guidance
revenue growth
15.3 pct
FY 2027
official guidance
operating margin
19.4 pct
FY 2027
official guidance
adjusted eps
3.29–3.37 $per share
FY 2027
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest 10-K · 2026-06-08
- Revenue Growth
- Consumption Based Pricing
- Cloud Commitments
- Profitability Quality
- Customer Expansion
- Share Dilution
- Securities Litigation
Red flags
- Profitability quality is uneven: FY2026 net income was $367.8 million after a $108.1 million loss in FY2025, and management states the company would have reported losses in FY2026 and FY2024 without releases of deferred-tax valuation allowances; accumulated deficit remained $732.0 million at April 30, 2026.
- The company has $575.0 million of senior notes due July 2029 and $613.6 million of non-cancelable minimum cloud-hosting commitments, while actual hosting payments may exceed the minimum depending on usage.
- Future dilution remains possible: the board is authorized to issue ordinary shares up to 20% of issued share capital through March 30, 2027 and to exclude pre-emptive rights for issuance up to 10%.
- Customer concentration is not quantified, but the model is exposed to consumption volatility: the vast majority of Elastic Cloud subscriptions are consumption-based and month-to-month subscriptions can be billed without a commitment.
- The pending securities litigation has no disclosed loss estimate, leaving an unquantified legal overhang.
Upcoming earnings
9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Oct 2026
Est. EPS
$0.81
Est. revenue
486.7M
Earnings transcripts
Press & signals
- Satelight
Elastic lays off 7% of employees