BYLINE BANCORP, INC.

Recommendation history

• Q4 2025HoldHold: Caterpillar delivered Q2 sales of $14.2 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.69, while raising 2014 adjusted EPS guidance to $6.20 and including-restructuring EPS guidance to $5.75. The bull case is strong execution, nearly $500 million of first-half cost benefits, robust Energy & Transportation performance, and $2.5 billion of planned Q3 buybacks; the tension is that sales guidance was reduced to $54-$56 billion, mining revenue fell 29%, and roughly $1.6 billion of dealer machine inventory is expected to be destocked in the second half.
• Q3 2023BuyBuy: EQT is executing the Equitrans integration faster than expected, with $145 million of annualized savings already captured against a $250 million base target, Q3 sales volumes of 581 Bcfe—4% above the high end of guidance—and pro forma operating costs of $1.07/Mcfe. The main tension is leverage and gas-price exposure: deleveraging depends on completing asset sales, while the long-term upside rests on still-unproven power and data-center demand assumptions; however, 60% of 2025 gas is hedged at a $3.25/MMBtu average floor and management forecasts $14.5 billion of 2025–2029 cumulative free cash flow at roughly $3.50 gas.
• Q2 2023HoldHOLD: InterDigital delivered a record 2024—revenue rose 58% to $869 million, adjusted EBITDA reached a record with a 63% margin, and year-end ARR was $468 million—but 2025 guidance falls to $660–$760 million of revenue and $400–$495 million of adjusted EBITDA. The long-term licensing thesis remains attractive, but the outlook depends on uncertain Samsung arbitration, renewals including $91 million of 2025 expirations, and new deals; Disney is unlikely to contribute materially in 2025 and management could not quantify likely settlement economics.
• Q1 2023HoldVirtus delivered solid Q2 earnings quality but not a clean growth inflection: adjusted EPS rose 9% sequentially to $6.25 and adjusted operating margin expanded to 31.3%, while AUM reached $170.7 billion. However, $3.9 billion of net outflows, including $2.2 billion institutional and continued quality-equity weakness, remain the core issue; ETF momentum and $50 million of year-to-date buybacks provide support, but the M&A upside is still unproven.
• Q4 2021BuyBuy: Delta delivered record Q2 results with $14.6 billion revenue, $2.68 adjusted EPS, a 17% operating margin and $1.1 billion free cash flow, while raising 2023 adjusted EPS guidance to $6-$7. The core thesis remains attractive—premium and international demand, Amex loyalty economics and improving costs—but Q3 unit revenue is expected to decline 2%-4% despite 16% capacity growth, and management offered limited visibility into Q4.