revenue growth
13–14 pct
FY 2025
official guidance
H. LUNDBECK A/S
Last · CopenhagenDKK 47.54+0.06 (+0.13%)live · yahoo · 2h ago
Market capDKK 47.2B793.1M sh
P/E · TTM12.1fwd 7.7 · eps 3.92
Beta0.24vs S&P 500
Div yield2.42%annual · TTM
52w range
DKK 35.30DKK 47.94
Volume123.5Ksession
| Revenue | DKK 13.6B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | DKK 3.7B |
| Net income | DKK 2.8B |
| Free cash flow | DKK 2.3B |
| Operating margin | 26.9% |
| Net margin | 20.7% |
| Return on equity | 10.4% |
| Period | 2026 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Strong execution, but pipeline and post-LOE replacement remain insufficiently de-risked for a clean buy.
Hold: Lundbeck is executing well, with strategic brands representing roughly 74% of revenue and growing 20%, Vyepti growing 53% versus a 21% market, and FY2025 guidance upgraded to 13–14% revenue growth with 22–25% adjusted EBITDA growth. The investment case is improving, but the stock still depends on translating an unproven pipeline into post-LOE growth: management itself acknowledged it does not yet have all the answers for the loss-of-exclusivity headwinds.
Themes
- Vyepti Growth
- Rexulti Alzheimers Agitation
- Bexicaserin
- Amlenetug
- Anti Pacap
- Pipeline Replenishment
Near term
Vyepti uptake and progress toward the raised peak-sales ambitions of $1.1 billion in the U.S. and $1.4 billion globally.
Rexulti’s Alzheimer’s agitation indication, now contributing one in four prescriptions, remains a key near-term growth driver.
Phase 2b anti-PACAP readout expected in Q1 2026 could strengthen Lundbeck’s migraine franchise, but failure would weaken the pipeline narrative.
Delivery against upgraded FY2025 guidance will test whether recent growth reflects durable demand or concentrated commercial investment.
Longer term
Bexicaserin is in Phase 3 for rare epilepsies with management-estimated peak-sales potential of $1.5–2.0 billion, but clinical and regulatory execution remain ahead.
Amlenetug is in Phase 3 for multiple system atrophy, with stated market potential of $1.5–3.0 billion; this is a high-value but high-risk binary program.
Management expects five to six mid- to late-stage assets by the end of 2026 and aims to launch a new product every four to five years.
The shift toward 12 key markets representing 83% of revenue could improve returns, but it increases geographic and execution concentration.
Maintaining roughly 30% adjusted EBITDA while funding internal R&D and external deals is central to the credibility of the focused-innovator strategy.
Red flags
Growth is concentrated in Vyepti and Rexulti while the company faces future loss-of-exclusivity pressure; management conceded that the pipeline does not yet provide all the answers.
The pipeline’s peak-sales figures are potential markets rather than de-risked revenue forecasts, with several assets still dependent on Phase 2 or Phase 3 outcomes.
The commercial model is being materially reshaped, with 27 countries moving to partnered models; savings and growth benefits were asserted but not quantified.
The Vyepti success playbook relied on substantial investment in access, infusion infrastructure, patient services and field force expansion, raising questions about incremental returns as the product scales.
Forward outlook
ebitda
22–25 pct
FY 2025
official guidance
revenue growth
—
FY 2026
management framework
ebitda
30 pct
FY 2026
management framework
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
4:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$1.49
Est. revenue
6.4B
Earnings transcripts
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags