VISA, INC.

Recommendation history

• Q2 2026BuyBuy: Visa delivered an unusually strong Q2, with revenue up 17% to $11.2 billion, EPS up 20% to $3.31, payments volume up 9%, cross-border volume up 11%, and VAS revenue up 27% to $3.3 billion. FY2026 guidance was raised to low-double-digit to low-teens revenue growth and low-teens adjusted EPS growth, while the main risks are a Q3 slowdown from incentives and volatility, Middle East travel disruption, and still-unproven economics and fraud-liability rules for agentic payments.
• Q1 2026BuyBuy. Visa delivered 15% revenue and EPS growth, with payments volume up 8%, cross-border volume up 11%, commercial and money-movement revenue up 20%, and value-added services up 28% to $3.2 billion. The core growth engine remains healthy, but Q2 will decelerate as pricing and volatility benefits fade, incentives rise, and Olympics/FIFA spending lifts expenses; CCCA remains the largest external risk.
• Q4 2025BuyBuy: Visa exited FY2025 with 11% revenue growth, 14% EPS growth, $40 billion of revenue and $11.47 EPS, while Q4 revenue rose 12% and EPS 10%. FY2026 guidance calls for low-double-digit adjusted revenue and EPS growth, supported by resilient volumes, pricing, value-added services and cross-border; the main tension is that operating expenses are also expected to grow in the low double digits, while agentic commerce and stablecoins remain promising but early and competitively unproven.
• Q3 2025BuyBuy. Visa delivered $10.2B of Q3 revenue (+14%), EPS of $2.98 (+23%), 8% payments-volume growth, 11% cross-border growth and 26% constant-currency value-added-services growth. The core network remains highly resilient, but Q4 growth will normalize to high-single-digit/low-double-digit adjusted revenue growth as FX volatility and one-time incentive benefits fade; rising incentives, renewal timing and limited Q4 operating leverage remain the key tensions.
• Q2 2025BuyBuy. Visa delivered a strong Q2: net revenue rose 9% to $9.6 billion, EPS increased 10% to $2.76, payments volume grew 8%, processed transactions 9%, and cross-border volume 13% in constant currency. The core network remains resilient, with Q3 adjusted revenue growth expected in the low double digits and EPS growth in the high teens, but higher back-half incentives, softer travel corridors, FX, and tariff uncertainty temper the upside.
• Q1 2025BuyBuy. Visa delivered a strong Q1: net revenue rose 10% to $9.5 billion, EPS increased 14% to $2.75, payments volume grew 9%, cross-border volume 16%, and processed transactions 11%. Management raised FY2025 adjusted revenue growth to low double digits and adjusted EPS growth to low teens, though some Q1 strength came from holiday spending, Reg II lapping, favorable FX volatility and easier comparisons.
• Q4 2024HoldVisa delivered a strong Q4—$9.6B revenue (+12%), EPS $2.71 (+16%), payments volume +8%, cross-border +13%, and value-added services revenue +22%—but the FY2025 setup is less clean. Management guides to high-single- to low-double-digit adjusted revenue growth and high-end low-double-digit adjusted EPS growth, while materially higher incentives, muted Asia-Pacific growth, US regulatory exposure, and pay-by-bank competition create execution risk; hold rather than chase.