ICL GROUP LTD · כי"ל

Recommendation history

• Q4 2025BuyBuy: KBR delivered a strong Q2, with revenue up 6%, adjusted EBITDA up 13%, margins expanding 75 bps, and year-to-date cash conversion at 121%. Management raised FY2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $825 million-$850 million and adjusted EPS to $3.15-$3.30, while LinQuest offers incremental low-double-digit growth and day-one cash accretion; the key tension is the expected decline of peak Plaquemines contributions and still-unquantified LTC and acquisition synergies.
• Q3 2025HoldICL delivered a solid quarter—sales rose 6% to $1.853 billion and adjusted EBITDA increased 4% to $398 million—but the investment case remains a hold rather than a buy. The 2025 specialty-business EBITDA outlook is unchanged at $950 million-$1.15 billion, while the new growth strategy relies on unproven acquisitions, mix improvement and execution; sulfur inflation, weak Brazilian agriculture and the 2030 Dead Sea concession remain material risks.
• Q2 2025HoldHold: Q2 sales rose 5% year over year to $1.832 billion, but adjusted EBITDA fell year over year to $351 million and adjusted EPS was only $0.09. Q3 should benefit from higher potash prices and better volumes, yet the 2025 potash sales outlook was cut to 4.3–4.5 million tons amid war-related production risk, while specialty EBITDA guidance remains a wide $950 million–$1.15 billion.
• Q1 2025HoldHOLD: OpenText delivered Q1 revenue of $1.269 billion, adjusted EBITDA margin of 35% and adjusted EPS of $0.93, but organic revenue still declined 1.8% excluding AMC and cloud revenue grew only 1.3%. The bull case is a 20% larger cloud/AI pipeline, 10.3% cloud bookings growth and Titanium X-driven second-half acceleration; the key tension is that the investment case remains dependent on unproven execution in SaaS, AI and security despite stable demand and limited quantitative evidence for the ramp.
• Q4 2024HoldHold: ICL delivered resilient 2024 execution—$6.84B sales, $1.469B adjusted EBITDA, $758M free cash flow, and 70% of EBITDA from specialty businesses—but the 2025 setup is not yet a clean buy. Specialty EBITDA guidance is $950M-$1.15B, while potash prices are improving, yet Q1 remains burdened by lower-priced China/India contracts and battery-material investments remain deliberately delayed amid uncertain demand and policy.
• Q3 2024HoldHold. ICL delivered a solid Q3: sales were $1.753 billion, adjusted EBITDA rose 11% year over year to $383 million, margin expanded to 22%, and year-to-date free cash flow reached $572 million. The specialty businesses drove the improvement, with 2024 specialty EBITDA guidance raised to $950 million-$1.05 billion, but potash prices remain pressured, logistics added $13 million of costs, Q4 is seasonally softer, and management provided no quantified 2025 outlook.
• Q1 2024HoldICL’s Q1 recovery was encouraging but not enough for a clean buy: revenue rose 3% sequentially to $1.735 billion and adjusted EBITDA was $362 million, while specialties-driven EBITDA approached $250 million. Management retained 2024 specialties EBITDA guidance of $700 million-$900 million, but phosphate pricing is already moderating, potash prices remain down 40% year over year at $324/ton, and the battery-materials opportunity remains largely dependent on customer qualification.