HSBC HOLDINGS PLC

Recommendation history

• 2026-06-03HoldHSBC’s strategic setup remains attractive but the call did not provide enough new earnings evidence to justify buying aggressively: Wealth is 25% of group revenue with $1.6 trillion of balances, including more than $1 trillion in Asia, while the UK generates $19 billion of annual revenue and Hong Kong offers potential Hang Seng synergies after the $14 billion privatization. The structural case—Asia connectivity, cross-border wealth and a large deposit franchise—is credible, but management gave no quantified targets or incremental financial outlook, and its confidence that mainland China real estate is “mostly behind us” remains the key downside risk.
• 2026-05-20HoldHold: HSBC has credible execution momentum, with $1.4bn of the promised $1.5bn simplification savings already actioned, $600m recognized in 2025, and 4,400 FTE removed. The strategic bull case is strong Asia wealth, trade, and Hong Kong positioning, but this was largely a strategy presentation with no new earnings guidance; the key tension is whether AI and $1.8bn of cost reallocation produce higher revenue and returns rather than just management targets.
• 2026-05-05BuyBuy: HSBC delivered a broad-based Q1 with 4% revenue growth to $19.1bn, $10.1bn adjusted PBT and 18.7% annualised ROTE, while upgrading Banking NII guidance to around $46bn. The key tension is credit: Q1 ECL was 52bps, including a $0.4bn fraud-related charge and $0.3bn Middle East reserve, with FY guidance raised to around 45bps; nevertheless, strong capital generation, wealth momentum and targeted cost savings support the 17%+ ROTE targets.
• Q3 2025BuyBuy: HSBC delivered a strong Q3, with revenue up 3% to $17.9 billion, PBT of $9.1 billion and year-to-date annualised ROTE of 17.6% excluding notable items. Management upgraded 2025 banking NII to $43 billion or better and ROTE to mid-teens or better; the main offsets are three quarters without buybacks, uncertain Hang Seng integration benefits, ongoing Hong Kong CRE stress and potentially material Madoff litigation exposure.