RECORDATI

Recommendation history

• Q1 2026BuyBuy: Recordati delivered a strong Q1, with revenue of €730 million (+4.9% reported; +8.7% constant currency), EBITDA of €284 million at a 39.7% margin, and rare-disease revenue up 14.8% reported, led by Isturisa (+56.8%) and Enjaymo (+37.6%). Full-year 2026 guidance was reiterated at €2.73–€2.80 billion revenue and €995 million–€1.03 billion EBITDA, but the key tension is whether Isturisa’s strong enrollments convert into active patients quickly enough to justify €40–€50 million of incremental investment, while PBH still requires a successful Phase 3 and regulatory path.
• 2026-02-18BuyRecordati delivered a strong 2025 and a credible 2026 setup: revenue rose 11.8% to €2.62bn, EBITDA increased 14.5% to €991m at a 37.8% margin, and 2026 revenue is guided to €2.73–€2.80bn with adjusted net income of €655–€685m. The bull case is Isturisa-led rare-disease growth, with roughly 1,400 US patients and further label-expansion potential; the tension is that FX, SPC deceleration and planned Isturisa investment are expected to compress margins to approximately 36.5%.
• 2025-11-12HoldRecordati delivered strong 9M execution: revenue rose 12.2% to €1.960bn, EBITDA increased 11.8% to €743.9m at a 38.0% margin, and adjusted net income grew 10.7% to €493.1m. However, the investment case is now more dependent on an unproven expansion of Isturisa into non-overt Cushing’s: management doubled peak-sales ambition to >€1.2bn, while €40m–€50m of annual investment, FX pressure and SPC headwinds will weigh on 2026 profitability. Hold rather than buy until the new patient opportunity is better evidenced.
• H1 2025HoldHold: Recordati delivered strong H1 momentum, with revenue of €1.32 billion (+11.7%; +7.8% like-for-like at constant FX), EBITDA margin of 37.5%, and confirmed FY2025 revenue guidance of €2.60–2.67 billion. The bull case is accelerating Isturisa and Enjaymo growth, but the key proof point remains missing: analysts challenged the modest Isturisa quarterly inflection, and management offered qualitative rather than quantified H2 acceleration while FX, tariffs, and 2.3x leverage remain risks.
• Q1 2025HoldRecordati delivered a strong start to 2025: Q1 revenue rose 11.9% to €680 million, or 7.2% like-for-like at constant exchange rates, with a 39.7% EBITDA margin and adjusted net income up 7.2%. Rare disease growth of 11.5% CER, Isturisa’s expanded U.S. label, and Enjaymo momentum support the thesis, but the stock is not a clean buy while growth relies partly on uncertain M&A, FX remains a headwind, and management provided little additional detail on future margins.
• 2025-04-29HoldHold: Recordati reaffirmed 2025 revenue of at least €2.6bn and set 2027 revenue guidance at €3.0–3.2bn with an EBITDA margin of at least 38%, supported by Rare Disease growth and resilient SPC cash generation. The plan is credible operationally, but the stock is not a clean buy after Q&A: analysts highlighted mature SPC markets, rising Eligard competition, uncertain US pricing/regulation, and ambiguity over how much M&A is embedded in the targets.
• FY 2024BuyBuy: Recordati delivered €2.341bn of 2024 revenue (+12.4%), 37.0% EBITDA margin and €535.1m free cash flow, while guiding 2025 revenue to €2.6–2.67bn and EBITDA margin to approximately 37.5%. The thesis remains attractive on Rare Disease momentum—Enjaymo is expected to contribute €150m and key assets’ peak-sales potential has been raised to more than double 2024 levels—but the upside depends partly on regulatory approvals and continued patient-by-patient commercial execution, with leverage just below 2.4x EBITDA.