DOVALUE S.P.A.

Recommendation history

• 2022-11-11HoldHold: doValue delivered strong 9M22 execution, with revenue up 10% to €426m, EBITDA ex-NRI up 31% to €152m, a 35.7% margin, and leverage at 1.8x. However, management did not raise guidance despite the beat, expects Q4 EBITDA normalization and year-end leverage near 2.2x, while the shift from extrajudicial to judicial collections may delay cash generation and pressure near-term results.
• H1 2022HoldH1 execution was strong: gross revenue grew 7% year over year, EBITDA rose 15% to above a 30% margin, collections increased 4% despite a 6% GBV decline, and management reiterated FY22 revenue guidance of €555–565 million and EBITDA of €190–195 million. However, cash conversion was weak, leverage is now expected around 2.2x rather than the earlier 2.0x target, and the €13–14 billion GBV intake goal depends on a much stronger second half after Sareb offboarding; the risk/reward is not compelling enough for a clean buy.
• Q1 2022HoldHold: doValue delivered a strong Q1, with gross revenue up 3.6% year over year (+7% excluding the €4 million Relais gain) and EBITDA up 1.6% (+13.3% normalized), while collections held at €1.3 billion. The €190–195 million FY2022 EBITDA target was reaffirmed, but the Sareb exit, up to €15 million of Spanish restructuring costs, roughly 2x leverage and weak near-term cash conversion keep this from being a clean buy.
• FY 2021HoldHOLD: doValue delivered a strong 2021, with €15bn of new GBV origination, a record 35% EBITDA margin, 4.3% collection rate and leverage reduced to 2.0x. However, management now expects 2022 EBITDA to be marginally below 2021, while Sareb EBITDA may fall from about €20m in 2021 to no more than €2m annually from 2023 and doTransformation requires investment; the upside from Greece and new mandates is not yet sufficient for a clean buy.
• 2022-01-26HoldHOLD: doValue presented an attractive cash-return and operating-improvement story, but the 2022–24 plan depends heavily on execution. Management targets 3%–4% annual revenue growth, 6%–7% EBITDA growth, a 500-basis-point margin expansion and more than €300 million of cumulative free cash flow pre-dividends and M&A; the key tension is Spain, where Sareb renewal carries sharply lower fees and EBITDA is expected to fall materially in 2022 before recovering to about €40 million in 2024.
• 2021-11-05HoldHold: doValue delivered strong 9M execution, with gross revenue up 57% reported and 13% pro forma, but FY2021 guidance of €565–575m revenue and €190–195m EBITDA ex NRI is broadly in line with expectations. The key tension is 2022: Sareb renegotiation, lower Mexico fees and Frontier onboarding costs imply roughly flat EBITDA despite a €30–35bn addressable opportunity, while analyst pushback exposed a material gap versus prior €215m consensus.
• H1 2021HoldHold: doValue delivered a strong recovery, with H1 revenue of €254 million (+54% year over year), EBITDA ex-NRI of €73 million (+104%) and a 29% margin, while leverage improved to 2.4x. The €5.2 billion of new mandates, €2 billion of forward flows and potential Frontier award support growth, but collections remain dependent on court normalization, new GACS mandates carry lower fees, and Spain still has excess fixed costs; management confirmed EBITDA consensus rather than raising it.