revenue growth
4–6 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
LINDT
Last · SwissCHF 86000.00-1900.00 (-2.16%)close · yahoo · 26h ago
Market capCHF 93.4B133.9K sh
P/E · TTM27.1fwd 24.9 · eps 3173.19
Beta0.45vs S&P 500
Div yield2.05%annual · TTM
52w range
CHF 86000.00CHF 132000.00
Volume109session
| Revenue | $16.0B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $6.6B |
| Net income | $4.5B |
| Free cash flow | $4.1B |
| Operating margin | 41.1% |
| Net margin | 28.3% |
| Return on equity | 24.0% |
| Period | 2026 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
BuyHoldSell
Strong margins and North American growth are offset by severe volume pressure and limited evidence of recovery.
Lindt delivered H1 organic sales growth of 4.3% and an EBIT margin of 11.2%, but growth remained heavily price-led:
pricing contributed +11.8% while volume/mix declined 7.5%. Management maintained FY26 guidance of 4–6% organic growth and 20–40 bps EBIT-margin expansion, yet the investment case still hinges on its unproven claim that volumes stabilize in H2 and return to growth in 2027; Europe was already down 2.1% organically. Hold.
Themes
- Volume Recovery
- Pricing Elasticity
- Cocoa Costs
- North America Growth
- Europe Pressure
- Premiumization
Near term
H2 volume stabilization and the Christmas season will test whether selective price cuts, broader Lindor price points, and increased brand investment can reverse the 7.5% H1 volume/mix decline.
Cocoa prices remain volatile despite expected H2 easing; a renewed rebound could pressure margins or require further pricing.
Lower H2 pricing contribution creates a tougher test for underlying sales growth, particularly in Europe.
Longer term
North America grew 12.7% and Rest of World 10.2%, providing credible expansion avenues, but Europe—nearly half of sales—remains the key volume and elasticity risk.
The Choco Wafer facility in Italy, Dubai Style and City-inspired products, and retail expansion in China, India, Saudi Arabia and Malaysia could broaden penetration from 2027 onward.
Lindt’s premium brand and execution have supported a 190 bps EBIT-margin improvement versus 2022, but continued premiumization may not fully offset consumer trade-down if high prices persist.
The central thesis changer is volume: management targets stabilization in H2 2026 and volume growth from 2027, while H1 volume/mix was still down 7.5%.
Red flags
H1 organic growth was driven by +11.8% pricing against -7.5% volume/mix, indicating meaningful consumer elasticity despite management’s confidence in brand strength.
Management provided no quantified volume recovery target or market-level evidence that the planned affordability actions will restore household penetration.
Net debt rose to CHF 1.6 billion after CHF 414 million of dividends and CHF 100 million of buybacks, while expansion and new production capacity require continued investment.
Cocoa market volatility remains high; the expected 2027 benefit from lower cocoa prices is not assured given weather and crop risks.
Forward outlook
operating margin
0.2–0.4 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue growth
6–8 pct
FY 2027
management target
operating margin
0.2–0.4 pct
FY 2027
management target
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Earnings transcripts
Documents
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