WALMART INC.

Recommendation history

• Q1 2027BuyBuy: Walmart delivered 5.7% constant-currency sales growth in Q1, 26% eCommerce growth, and reiterated FY2027 guidance for 3.5%-4.5% sales growth, 6%-8% operating-income growth, and $2.75-$2.85 EPS. The bull case is strengthening traffic, nearly 50% U.S. Marketplace growth, 37% global advertising growth, and higher-margin businesses now contributing roughly one-third of operating income; the tension is that $175 million of fuel pressure already absorbed about 250 basis points of operating-income growth, while management reset the durable framework toward 4%-8% rather than consistently double-digit operating-income growth.
• Q3 2026BuyBuy: Walmart delivered a strong Q3, with constant-currency sales up 5.9%, adjusted operating income up 8%, eCommerce up 27%, and a raised FY2026 sales outlook of 4.8%-5.1%. The key bull case is share gains plus improving eCommerce economics, advertising and membership income; the main tension is flat consolidated gross profit, mix pressure toward lower-margin necessities, and still-unquantified tariff and health-and-wellness risks.
• 2026-08-21HoldHold: Walmart’s core engine remains strong, with 5.1% constant-currency growth, normalized U.S. comps ex-health and wellness holding in a 3%–4% range, e-commerce growth above 20%, and Walmart Connect advertising growth near 40%. However, the earnings picture remains noisy: Maximum Fair Pricing is a 125-basis-point full-year headwind, fuel costs are expected to be over $2 billion higher, and tariff refunds are being reinvested before their sales and margin returns are proven.
• Q2 2026BuyBuy: Walmart delivered 5.6% constant-currency sales growth, 25% global eCommerce growth, 4.6% U.S. comps, and raised FY2026 sales-growth guidance to 3.75%-4.75%. The core flywheel is strengthening through share gains, advertising up 46%, membership income up 15%, and improving U.S. eCommerce profitability, but the purchase case is tempered by tariff-driven margin uncertainty, $730 million of incremental claims costs, and a premium multiple whose consistency was challenged by analysts.
• 2026-05-22HoldWalmart's operating engine is gaining momentum, but the quarter exposed meaningful margin and consumer risks: e-commerce grew 26%, Marketplace revenue 50%, advertising 37%, and global inventory 8.9%, while higher fuel costs absorbed $175 million. Management reiterated full-year sales, operating income, and EPS guidance, but offered no increase despite the strong digital trends; with low-income discretionary spending pressured and competitive price investment likely, the stock is a hold rather than a clean buy after the call.
• Q1 2026HoldWalmart delivered a strong Q1—constant-currency sales rose 4%, U.S. comp sales 4.5%, Sam’s Club comp sales 6.7%, eCommerce 22%, and adjusted EPS was $0.61—but the investment case is temporarily dominated by tariff and earnings-timing risk. Management affirmed its full-year sales and operating-income outlook under current tariff assumptions, yet withdrew Q2 operating-income guidance because outcomes are unusually wide and acknowledged that sustained elevated tariffs could jeopardize year-over-year earnings growth. Hold rather than buy until tariff visibility and inventory outcomes improve.
• 2026-02-20HoldWalmart delivered strong operating momentum—Q4 U.S. e-commerce grew 27%, Walmart Connect grew 41% excluding VIZIO, and International sales rose 15% with operating income up roughly 26%-27%. However, FY27 operating-income growth is framed at a measured 6%-8% in constant currency, while e-commerce transactions remain less profitable than stores for at least the next one to two years and agentic commerce could shift traffic. The business is executing well, but the call does not establish a clean enough risk/reward to add aggressively.