IDEX CORPORATION

Recommendation history

• Q3 2025HoldHold: Cognizant exited 2024 with improving execution—Q4 revenue rose 6.7% in constant currency, bookings grew 11% with a 1.4x book-to-bill, and adjusted operating margin reached 15.7%. However, 2025 guidance implies only 1%–3.5% organic constant-currency growth at the midpoint, with roughly 250 bps of growth supplied by Belcan; management’s AI upside remains largely unquantified and analysts did not obtain evidence of a sharp organic acceleration.
• Q2 2024No clear callEncouraging execution, but not yet a clean buy: Q1 sales rose 5% with 42.1% non-GAAP gross margin, operating income margin up 80 bps, $125 million of operating cash flow, and $1.5 billion of cash. The bull case is broad demand, 13% Video Collaboration growth, 15% APAC growth, and effective cost/tariff mitigation; the tension is Q2 guidance for only 1–5% sales growth and 41–42% gross margin while the impact of U.S. price increases on elasticity, market share, and gaming remains unproven.
• Q3 2021HoldHold: National Fuel delivered solid execution, with adjusted EPS of $1.46, production guidance raised to 395–410 Bcfe, and 72% of remaining fiscal 2024 production hedged. However, lower gas prices drove fiscal 2024 EPS guidance to $4.90–$5.20 and reduced expected free cash flow by $70 million; utility capex is also rising by $20–$25 million, making the near-term risk/reward balanced rather than a clean buy.
• Q4 2017HoldHold: National Fuel delivered a strong Q2 with adjusted EPS of $1.79, up 16% year over year, and regulated earnings benefited from Pennsylvania and Supply Corp. rate increases. However, FY2024 adjusted EPS guidance was cut by $0.15 at the midpoint to $4.75-$5.05 as NYMEX assumptions fell to $2.00/MMBtu; the long-term rate-base and EDA productivity story is attractive, but the New York rate case and weak gas prices still argue for waiting rather than buying aggressively.
• Q1 2015HoldIDEX delivered solid execution despite a difficult quarter—Q1 EPS was $0.84, operating margin 20.3%, and organic orders rose 2%—but the company cut FY2015 EPS guidance to $3.50-$3.60 as FX, agricultural weakness, and delayed energy/material-process projects intensify. The long-term moat and productivity are credible, but near-term estimates face meaningful downside risk; the risk/reward is not a clean buy after the guidance reset.