revenue
150–200 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
AST SPACEMOBILE, INC.
Last · —$42.14-4.925 (-10.46%)live · yahoo · 9m ago
Market cap$16.52B—
P/E · TTM—fwd — · eps —
Beta—vs S&P 500
Div yield—annual · TTM
52w range
——
Volume—session
| Revenue | $115.3M |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $-547.2M |
| Net income | $-421.9M |
| Free cash flow | $-1.0B |
| Operating margin | -474.6% |
| Net margin | -365.9% |
| Return on equity | -22.3% |
| Period | TTM 2026-06-30 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
high-upside but still execution- and valuation-sensitive; the call supports the technology and funding runway, not yet recurring commercial economics.
Q2 revenue was $31.5 million, while adjusted OpEx was $119.1 million and CapEx $610 million; pro forma liquidity of more than $3.7 billion reduces near-term financing risk. The $150-$200 million 2026 revenue outlook and $1.3 billion backlog are credible near-term supports, but the investment case still depends on launching roughly 45 satellites by early 2027 and converting beta service into meaningful recurring revenue.
Themes
- 2026 Revenue Guidance
- Commercial Service Beta
- Satellite Launches
- Government Contracts
- J Leo Japan
- Spectrum Access
Near term
BlueBirds 14-16 are nearing shipment, with 10 launches booked across two providers and a target of approximately 45 satellites in orbit by early 2027; launch timing remains the key near-term execution variable.
Q3 adjusted OpEx excluding cost of revenues is expected at $105-$115 million and Q3 CapEx at $350-$425 million, keeping cash burn and launch-payment timing central to the stock.
Beta service for consumers is targeted for later 2026, but commercial revenue recognition is not expected until commercial service begins, making the fourth quarter disproportionately important to 2026 results.
The three new U.S. government awards have more than $100 million of funded near-term value during 2026-2027, but management did not provide a detailed revenue-recognition schedule.
Longer term
The core thesis is strengthened by 60 MNO partners covering more than 3 billion subscribers, approximately 100 MHz of U.S. spectrum access, more than 60 MHz globally, and a proprietary ASIC designed for up to 10 GHz of processing bandwidth per satellite.
The planned cadence of six satellites per month and the additional 400,000-square-foot Midland expansion could support scale, but they also increase fixed investment before commercial utilization is proven.
Management continues to target approximately $1 billion of revenue in the first full year of commercial service, with government revenue potentially contributing up to half; this remains a management goal rather than firm guidance.
Government radar, secure communications, emergency response, IoT, sovereign constellations and AI edge compute materially expand the opportunity, but each requires customer adoption, regulatory progress and additional operational capability.
The architecture's claimed advantage is integration with existing MNO networks rather than replacement of them; the competitive moat will ultimately be tested by service reliability, coverage, spectrum economics and the ability of rival satellite operators or MNO-led systems to close the performance gap.
Red flags
The $1.3 billion backlog is aggregated contracted revenue, but management said government is only a minority of the total and did not quantify the commercial backlog, timing, margins or cancellation terms.
Analysts pressed on 2027 revenue construction and commercial-service recognition; management reiterated the roughly $1 billion ambition but gave no subscriber, pricing, utilization or revenue-per-partner assumptions to substantiate it.
Management did not disclose the revenue-sharing economics of the U.S. MNO joint venture, nor clarify the status of potential T-Mobile or Deutsche Telekom partnerships beyond saying existing agreements are unaffected.
The $21-$23 million satellite-cost estimate includes launch costs and remains exposed to geopolitical and launch-provider inflation; the company also recorded a $125.9 million loss related to the BlueBird 7 satellite.
The preliminary J-LEO award is described as up to approximately $1 billion of non-dilutive government capital, but it remains subject to approvals and final agreements and should not be treated as committed funding.
Coverage and commercialization are not yet equivalent: management estimated that roughly 25 satellites would provide only about half-day coverage in a general U.S. location, while full commercial service requires substantially more deployment.
Forward outlook
operating margin
—
Q3 2026
official guidance
ebitda
105–115 $million
Q3 2026
official guidance
ebitda
400 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
revenue
350–425 $million
Q3 2026
official guidance
revenue
1000 $million
FY 2027
management target
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest 10-K · 2026-03-02
- Direct To Device Satellite
- Bb6 Deployment
- Mno Partnerships
- Spectrum Access
- Capital Intensity
- Debt Financing
- Ligado Transaction
- Regulatory Risk
Red flags
- Debt increased to $2.264 billion at December 31, 2025 from $167.5 million a year earlier; 2027 contractual maturities include $433.2 million, before considering any refinancing needs.
- The company had approximately $489.1 million of purchase commitments and $250.0-$325.0 million of minimum future launch commitments as of year-end, despite rights to modify or terminate some obligations.
- More than 90 Block 2 satellites imply roughly $1.9-$2.1 billion of direct materials and launch costs using management’s $21.0-$23.0 million per-satellite estimate, excluding broader operating and infrastructure costs.
- The company explicitly states that it has a history of losses, may never become profitable and will need significant additional capital to expand beyond the currently funded constellation size.
- The pending Ligado transaction could create additional dilution and debt-related risk, while its expected spectrum benefits remain subject to regulatory approval and other closing conditions.
- The multi-class share structure concentrates voting power with founder, Chairman and CEO Abel Avellan, limiting outside shareholders’ ability to influence major transactions.
Upcoming earnings
9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
−$0.44
Est. revenue
46.0M
Earnings transcripts
- Motley Fool
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
AST SPACEMOBILE, INC.
- Issuer webcast
Webcast: AST SpaceMobile BlueBird 7 Mission Live Launch
AST SPACEMOBILE, INC.
- Issuer webcast
Webcast
AST SPACEMOBILE, INC.
- Issuer webcast
Webcast
AST SPACEMOBILE, INC.
- Issuer webcast
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AST SPACEMOBILE, INC.