revenue growth
45–50 pct
FY 2027
official guidance
Caliber Mining and Logistics Limited
Last · NSE₹466.45-4.35 (-0.92%)close · yahoo · 26h ago
Limited price history since listing (2026-07-24 → 2026-09-11).
Market cap₹30.5B65.4M sh
P/E · TTM19.9fwd — · eps 23.40
Beta—vs S&P 500
Div yield—annual · TTM
52w range
₹460.00₹624.40
Volume98.2Ksession
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
BuyHoldSell
Strong visibility, but margin recovery and expansion economics remain unproven.
Hold: Q1 revenue rose to INR657 crore from INR393 crore, while EBITDA increased to INR110 crore from INR95.7 crore; the INR9,124 crore order book supports multi-year growth.
However, reported EBITDA margin was only 16.8% (20.0% excluding diesel pass-through), and FY27 targets of 45%-50% revenue growth and 35%+ EBITDA/PAT growth depend on fuel-cost normalization and execution.
Themes
- Coal Mining Services
- Coal Logistics
- Order Book
- Diesel Costs
- Monsoon Seasonality
- Coal India Concentration
Near term
Q2 is seasonally weak due to monsoon; management expects overburden removal of approximately 34 million cubic meters versus 43 million in Q1, with stronger activity from Q3.
Diesel prices, currently above the pre-shock INR88-INR93 range, remain the key near-term margin swing factor; pass-through is described as maximum rather than complete.
Management is negotiating contract escalations customer by customer, so Q2 margin recovery is not assured.
Longer term
The 46-month average order-book duration and seven operational sites provide revenue visibility, but converting the INR9,124 crore order book into cash returns will depend on disciplined fleet deployment and project ramp-up.
FY27 growth guidance of 45%-50% revenue and 35%+ EBITDA is ambitious relative to the company’s first public-company reporting cycle and requires successful full-year execution of recently won contracts.
Expansion into MDO, iron ore, and critical minerals could diversify growth, but these businesses are more capex-intensive and no project-level return or capex framework was provided.
The claimed advantage from in-house maintenance and sweating 12-17-year-old assets may support margins, but analysts did not receive quantified cost or return-on-capital evidence versus competitors.
Red flags
Fuel escalation is not 100% pass-through; management acknowledged timing mismatches and that a portion of fuel inflation must be absorbed.
More than 80% of revenue is linked to Coal India, creating customer and public-sector concentration risk.
Debt is expected to remain around INR750 crore at year-end before any new tenders, while new growth could require approximately INR283 crore of additional borrowing for current orders.
Management repeatedly attributed margin pressure to an exceptional Iran-war shock and forecast normalization, but did not quantify the residual exposure if diesel prices remain elevated.
The prior Adani Power project was interrupted by a land issue and has not restarted, highlighting site-availability and customer-hindrance risks despite management’s assertion that no loss was incurred.
Revenue per unit, segment margins, capex requirements for the next two to three years, and tender win rates were not disclosed despite direct analyst questions.
Forward outlook
ebitda
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FY 2027
management framework
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Earnings transcripts
Documents
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