revenue growth
—
FY 2023
official guidance
TELE2 AB
| Revenue | SEK 29.6B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | SEK 5.8B |
| Net income | SEK 3.9B |
| Free cash flow | SEK 6.7B |
| Operating margin | 19.7% |
| Net margin | 13.1% |
| Return on equity | 17.5% |
| Period | 2024 |
Loading chart…
OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
BuyHoldSell
Strong operational resilience and dividend support are offset by muted growth, elevated investment and unresolved Swedish pricing pressure.
Hold: Tele2 delivered resilient Q4 execution, with organic end-user service revenue up 3.2% and underlying EBITDA up 3.0%—4.3% excluding SEK35 million of incremental energy costs—while Baltics EBITDA rose 16%. However, 2023 guidance is only low-single-digit revenue and EBITDAaL growth, with CapEx at the upper end of SEK2.8–3.3 billion, weak 2022 equity free cash flow of SEK3.5 billion and Swedish consumer competition limiting near-term upside.
Themes
- Swedish Consumer
- Baltics Growth
- 5g Capex
- Working Capital
- Pricing Pressure
- Business Transformation
Near term
Front-loaded mobile and fixed-broadband price increases, plus a new handset financing fee from February 2023, will test churn and ASPU in Sweden.
Working capital is targeted to reverse in 2023 after inventory buildup and temporarily retained handset financing receivables; management expects improvement over several quarters rather than an immediate fix.
Energy costs remain a swing factor: approximately 50% of Swedish energy cost is hedged on a rolling basis, with exposure expected to ease in the second half if current prices persist.
Swedish 5G rollout and Remote-PHY investment will keep 2023 CapEx near the upper end of the SEK2.8–3.3 billion target range.
The Swedish spectrum auction could materially affect 2023 equity free cash flow and the timing of any extraordinary dividend.
Longer term
Completion of the common IT platform for Tele2, Com Hem and Comviq by year-end 2023 could support lower structural costs, better digital execution and fuller FMC/multiplay offerings.
The Business Transformation Programme has reached SEK825 million of annual run-rate savings, with a SEK1 billion target by mid-2023; the key question is whether sustainable efficiency gains replace the expiring programme benefits.
Baltics growth remains the strongest structural contributor, but 5G rollout and inflation—above 20% in parts of the region—must remain manageable as the business scales.
5G monetisation, speed-tiered offerings and Remote-PHY could support higher-value connectivity and lower network operating costs, but Swedish customer affordability may limit price realisation.
Cash generation should improve if handset receivables and network inventory unwind, although higher CapEx and spectrum spending delay a clear free-cash-flow inflection.
Red flags
Swedish mobile customers became more promotion-sensitive in Q4, with equipment revenue down 6%, increased porting and pressure on ASPU; management acknowledged the market was unusually promotional.
Management did not quantify the 2023 energy, wage, content or spectrum assumptions behind guidance, making the low-single-digit EBITDA outlook difficult to stress-test.
Sweden EBITDA was flat despite higher service revenue and transformation savings, as energy, handset financing and content costs absorbed the gains; Viaplay-related content costs are now running at the higher Q3/Q4 level.
2022 equity free cash flow of SEK3.5 billion, or SEK5 per share, was below prior years and did not comfortably cover the proposed shareholder distribution without working-capital improvement.
The mid-term return to mid-single-digit EBITDAaL growth depends on pricing, cost efficiencies and lower investment intensity, but management supplied no quantified bridge beyond 2023.
Forward outlook
ebitda
—
FY 2023
official guidance
revenue growth
—
FY 2023
official guidance
ebitda
—
FY 2023
official guidance
revenue
2800–3300 $million
FY 2023
official guidance
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Earnings transcripts
- Issuer IR
Tele2 Q4 2022 Transcript
TELE2 AB
- Issuer IR
Tele2 AB Q4 2020 Report 2nd February 2021 Transcript
TELE2 AB
- Issuer IR
Q2 2020 earnings call transcript
TELE2 AB
- Issuer IR
TranscriptQ22020Tele2ABEarningsCall
TELE2 AB
- Issuer IR
tele2 q1 2020 transcript
TELE2 AB
- Issuer IR
2020 feb 03 tel2b.st 138164780090 transcript
TELE2 AB
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags