WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

Recommendation history

• FY 2025HoldHold: FY25 underlying EBITDA was A$1.355bn, net debt fell to about A$600m, and management targets FY26 ROM of 37–41mt with costs of A$130–145/t. The balance sheet and A$191m FY25 shareholder return support the bull case, but coal-price cyclicality, a US$1.1bn refinancing, weather and Narrabri execution leave insufficient margin for a clean buy.
• FY 2024HoldHold: FY24 underlying EBITDA was A$1.4 billion and underlying NPAT A$740 million, but FY25 carries A$140-A$155 per tonne costs, an eight-week Narrabri longwall move and 12-18 months of Queensland inventory rebuilding. The Blackwater sell-down could bring US$1.08 billion before roughly US$100 million of tax and materially de-risk the balance sheet, but the investment case still depends on executing unquantified Queensland savings and recovering production without coal-price support.
• H1 2024HoldHold: H1 underlying EBITDA was A$623m, underlying NPAT A$372m, operating cash flow A$523m and net cash A$1.5bn, but the A$2.6bn Daunia/Blackwater acquisition brings execution and leverage risk while Narrabri underperforms. The met-coal expansion is strategically attractive and Blackwater may offer upside, yet buybacks are paused for roughly two years and costs are at the top of guidance.
• FY 2023HoldHold: FY23 delivered A$6.1bn revenue, A$4.0bn EBITDA, A$2.7bn NPAT and A$2.65bn net cash, but the record result was driven by A$445/t coal pricing. FY24 guidance implies 16–17.5mt managed sales, A$103–113/t costs and A$460–570m capex; persistent labour and supplier inflation, Narrabri's A$800–850m future spend and unresolved automation execution keep this from being a clean buy.
• FY 2022HoldHold: FY22 delivered A$4.9 billion revenue, A$3.1 billion EBITDA and A$2.0 billion NPAT, but the earnings windfall was driven by exceptional coal prices rather than a durable volume expansion. The balance sheet is strong at A$1.04 billion net cash and capital returns are attractive, yet FY23 guidance embeds 11.6-12.6 million tonnes of equity production, A$89-A$96 per tonne costs and substantial exposure to labour, weather, diesel, royalties and coal-price normalization.
• FY 2021HoldHOLD: Whitehaven enters FY22 with 18.0-18.6Mt managed sales, AUD72-76/t unit-cost guidance and a path to net cash in 2H FY22 if coal prices hold. The bull case is rapid debt reduction and strong high-CV pricing, but a AUD650m impairment, Narrabri execution risk and dependence on unusually strong coal prices make this a wait rather than a clean buy.
• FY 2020HoldHold: FY20 underlying EBITDA fell 69% to A$306 million while net debt reached A$787.5 million, despite about A$470 million of liquidity. FY21 guidance calls for 21.0–22.8 million tonnes of ROM, 18.5–20.0 million tonnes of managed sales and A$69–74 per tonne costs, but the recovery depends on coal prices, mine sequencing and still-unproven cost savings.