September 30, 2025
Q3 2025 earnings call transcript
Our analyst
Read of this earnings call — headline is the investment verdict. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
Buy.
Visa delivered $10.2B of Q3 revenue (+14%), EPS of $2.98 (+23%), 8% payments-volume growth, 11% cross-border growth and 26% constant-currency value-added-services growth. The core network remains highly resilient, but Q4 growth will normalize to high-single-digit/low-double-digit adjusted revenue growth as FX volatility and one-time incentive benefits fade; rising incentives, renewal timing and limited Q4 operating leverage remain the key tensions.
- Payments Volume
- Cross Border
- Value Added Services
- Visa Direct
- Stablecoins
- Ai Commerce
- Client Incentives
- Pricing Power
Near term
- Q4 adjusted revenue guidance is high-single-digit to low-double-digit growth, with reported growth around 10%; the comparison is burdened by last year's unusually low incentives and Olympic-related VAS benefit.
- Cross-border trends remain volatile: July improved more than one percentage point from June, but currency movements, weaker AP currencies and the Canada-to-US corridor can still pressure travel and yield.
- Q4 incentives are expected to be the highest-growth quarter of FY2025, while roughly 20% of payments volume is affected by renewals versus 15% last year.
- Operating expenses are expected to grow high-single digits to low-double digits in Q4, broadly in line with revenue, limiting near-term operating leverage.
Longer term
- Value-added services is becoming a meaningful second growth engine: revenue reached $2.8B and grew 26% in constant currency, with strength across issuing, acceptance, risk and advisory services.
- Visa Direct reached 3.3B quarterly transactions and more than 10B on a rolling-12-month basis, expanding Visa's exposure to remittances, bank-embedded money movement and commercial flows.
- AI commerce has more than 30 partners testing in a live sandbox, with transaction pilots and broader availability expected later in 2025; successful monetization could extend Visa's network relevance beyond conventional cards.
- Stablecoins could expand Visa's addressable market in emerging-market consumer payments and cross-border remittances, but the economic value may accrue partly to clients and consumers through lower-cost transfers.
- Analysts repeatedly challenged Visa on pricing sustainability, incentive growth and competition from account-to-account networks, stablecoins and other money-movement platforms; management's network scale, trust and client relationships remain the primary moat.
Red flags
- Management declined to characterize the long-running rise in incentives relative to revenue, saying incentives are a tool to drive volume and client goals; renewal economics therefore remain difficult to model.
- Q3's revenue outperformance benefited from favorable pricing timing, elevated FX volatility and one-time incentive effects, while Q4 faces difficult comparisons and less non-operating income.
- Management provided no specific FY2026 targets, and acknowledged that investment in AI, stablecoins and other growth initiatives could keep expense growth near revenue growth.
- Stablecoin monetization remains early and unquantified; faster or cheaper settlement could create volume but also pressure transaction pricing and shift economics toward clients or end users.
- Cross-border revenue growth exceeded volume growth partly because of FX volatility, hedging and mix; weaker high-yield corridors such as Canada-to-US could reduce revenue yield even if volume remains healthy.
Forward outlook
| Metric | Period | Range | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| revenue growth | Q4 2025 | 7–12 pct | official guidance |
| revenue | Q4 2025 | — | official guidance |
Corrected Transcript
29-Jul-2025
Visa, Inc.
(V)
Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Total Pages
21
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025
CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS
Jennifer Como Christopher Suh
Senior Vice President & Global Head-Investor Relations, Visa, Inc. Chief Financial Officer, Visa, Inc.
Ryan McInerney
Chief Executive Officer & Director, Visa, Inc.
OTHER PARTICIPANTS
Harshita Rawat Dan Dolev
Analyst, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC Analyst, Mizuho Securities USA LLC
Tien-Tsin Huang Darrin Peller
Analyst, JPMorgan Securities LLC Analyst, Wolfe Research LLC
Trevor Williams Fahed Kunwar
Analyst, Jefferies LLC Analyst, Redburn (Europe) Ltd.
Timothy E. Chiodo Nate Svensson
Analyst, UBS Securities LLC Analyst, Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Gus Gala Sanjay Sakhrani
Analyst, Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co., Inc. Analyst, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.
Will Nance
Analyst, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
2
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025
MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION SECTION
Operator
Welcome to the Visa's Fiscal Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. All participants are in a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer session. Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.
I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Ms. Jennifer Como, Senior Vice President and Global
Head of Investor Relations. Ms. Como, you may begin your conference.
Jennifer Como
Senior Vice President & Global Head-Investor Relations, Visa, Inc.
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Visa's fiscal third quarter 2025 earnings call. Joining us today are Ryan McInerney, Visa's Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Suh, Visa's Chief Financial Officer.
This call is being webcast on the Investor Relations section of our website at investor.visa.com. A replay will be archived on our site for 30 days. A slide deck containing financial and statistical highlights has been posted on our
IR website.
Let me also remind you that this presentation includes forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and our actual results could differ materially as a result of many factors.
Additional information concerning those factors is available in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and any subsequent reports on Forms 10-Q and 8-K, which you can find on the SEC's website and the Investor
Relations section of our website.
Our comments today regarding our financial results will reflect revenue on a GAAP basis and all other results on a non-GAAP nominal basis unless otherwise noted. The related GAAP measures and reconciliation are available in today's earnings release and related materials available on our IR website.
And with that, let me turn the call over to Ryan.
Ryan McInerney
Chief Executive Officer & Director, Visa, Inc.
Thanks, Jennifer. This quarter, our financial performance once again demonstrated the power of Visa's diverse business model, global scale, commitment to innovation and relentless focus on our clients.
We delivered net revenue of $10.2 billion, up 14% year-over-year, and EPS up 23% year-over-year. Our key business drivers were strong. In constant dollars, overall payments volume grew 8% year-over-year.
US payments volume grew 7%, and international payments volume grew 10%. Cross-border volume, excluding intra-Europe, rose 11% in constant dollars, and processed transactions grew 10% year-over-year.
We are obsessed about serving our clients and wake up every morning thinking about what we can do to help them be successful today and in the future. We recently completed our Annual Global Client Engagement Survey where Visa again received a Net Promoter Score of 76, a tangible sign of how our clients feel about Visa and our capabilities, services and products.
3
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025
And as I'm sure you all saw, we hosted our Product Drop on April 30. We shared how we are continuing to evolve the Visa as a Service Stack to advance our product developments and lead in a number of areas including AI and stablecoins across consumer payments, commercial and money movement solutions, and value-added services.
Now let's look at some of the specific innovations and progress across our growth pillars this quarter. In consumer payments, we continued to grow through a focus on solutions to address both carded and non-carded volumes across the globe.
Total credentials were up 7% year-over-year, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of at least 7% growth. We are nearing 15 billion tokens and now more than 50% of our e-commerce transactions are tokenized globally, getting closer to our ultimate goal of reaching 100% penetration.
As we continue to transform Visa cards for a more digital future, our Flex Credential is an important solution. We have seen interest across various use cases such as buy now pay later, small business, multi-currency and more.
This quarter, we announced that Klarna will be launching a Klarna Card powered by our Flex Credential in both the US and Europe.
We also expanded Flex Credential geographically with inaugural clients in Vietnam, the Philippines, and
Bangladesh, and we have a pipeline of more than 200 client opportunities.
Another way that we are advancing a more digital future is with Visa Intelligent Commerce, which enables consumers to shop and buy with AI agents. It combines a suite of integrated APIs, including AI-ready cards with tokenization and authentication, together with a commercial partner program for AI platforms, enabling developers to deploy Visa's AI commerce capabilities securely and at scale.
We are excited to announce that we have more than 30 partners testing in our live sandbox, and we will soon enter the live transaction pilot phase with general availability to follow later this year, as we see agentic commerce becoming a reality.
In the face-to-face environment, we continue to drive cash digitization and habituation through our Tap to
Everything use cases. Tap to Pay penetration is now at 78% of face-to-face transactions globally.
As a result of our efforts to increase issuance and acceptance, especially transit which drives habituation, we now have 75 US cities at 60% penetration or higher, up from 30 cities just last year. And New York City and San
Francisco have now surpassed 85% and 80%, respectively.
Tap to Phone added a record 3 million transacting devices this quarter, and Tap to Add Card continues to expand with more than 275 issuers participating globally, almost doubling from last quarter.
For affluent consumers, we are excited to launch Visa Infinite Privilege in Brazil, a new super premium offering with personalized exclusive experiences enabled by dedicated lifestyle managers for each affluent user.
Itaú, Unicred, and XP International are our inaugural issuer partners. In Canada, our Visa Infinite affluent offerings for fintech Wealthsimple has been their most requested product with tens of thousands of cards issued in just two months and hundreds of thousands on the wait list.
4
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025
Throughout all these innovations, we have continued to deepen our relationships with our clients across the globe. We renewed our partnership with Absa, a leading pan-African bank in consumer and commercial issuance consulting and Cybersource across nine countries. And in India, we renewed our consumer credit agreements with HDFC and Axis Bank this quarter, two of the country's top five credit card issuers.
Our consumer payment strategy is also focused on non-carded solutions like Visa A2A in the UK. With this offering, we bring together Visa's brand, consumer protections, technology and risk management capabilities to enable simpler, safer and more secure account-to-account payments. We released APIs on the Visa Developer
Platform a few months ago, and we now have several partners on board and even more in our pipeline with a formal launch soon.
Also in the A2A space, we're making a very deliberate effort to focus on open banking in the markets that have the greatest potential, such as Europe and Latin America. As an example, in Brazil, we have developed Visa
Conecta, a payment initiator that connects with Pix to facilitate open banking payments through Tink technology, both in the face-to-face environment, but more specifically in e-commerce, where conversion is a challenge due to the current customer experience.
Now moving to Commercial & Money Movement Solutions, or CMS, where we continue to pursue new use cases and verticals, domestic and cross-border flows and develop unique products. This quarter, commercial payments volume was up 7% in constant dollars. Visa Direct transactions grew 25%, and CMS revenue rose 13% year- over-year in constant dollars.
In Visa Commercial Solutions, one of our key strategies is addressing the day-to-day challenges of small and large businesses through our vertical-specific solutions. In the healthcare and benefits vertical, we are very active, including providing solutions for employee benefits to more than half of the top HSA providers in the US. A recent example of our activity in the benefits space is with Sunny, a healthcare fintech that will issue Visa prepaid disbursement cards to their millions of US consumers to spend integrated health benefits and rewards.
In the travel vertical, Checkout.com will begin using Visa virtual cards for online travel agencies, or OTAs, in the
UK and Europe. In addition, Pliant, already an important issuing partner across numerous verticals in Europe, will be expanding into the US, bringing their virtual Card-as-a-Service offerings with spend management capabilities to OTAs, travel management companies, and others in the travel vertical.
And in the fleet and fuel vertical, we continue to make progress with our Fleet 2.0 solution, providing key Visa enhancements such as EMV chips, digital wallet provisioning and contactless payments. In Europe, Octopus
Energy is one of the region's largest energy suppliers, and they selected Visa as their partner, as they start issuing cards to fleet managers seeking a single payment solution to manage mobility expenses.
In Visa Direct, we have made some important progress in facilitating cross-border flows to further our positioning as the largest money movement platform by transactions, volumes, and endpoints. One of the biggest banks in the UAE with over 60 branches serving over 1 million customers, ADIB, will use Visa Direct to power Remit!, their newly launched remittances program, by offering access to cards, accounts and wallets across all corridors.
In Bangladesh, we have signed our first four partners to enable Visa Direct: Meghna Bank, Trust Bank, Midland
Bank and BRAC Bank, specifically for outbound cross-border payments. And in the US and Canada, Paysend, who we have discussed before is an important Visa Direct remittance client with 10 million customers, is now expanding to add more cross-border use cases such as gig economy worker payouts, payroll disbursements, and accounts payable flows as a reseller to third parties.
5
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025
Before I go to value-added services, I think it is important to touch on a topic that has had a lot of interest lately, stablecoins. We are supportive of the GENIUS Act, and we believe that it marks a key milestone on the path to regulatory clarity for stablecoins.
We have been active in this space for almost a decade and believe that stablecoins can solve important payments problems for certain use cases. We believe that Visa's role is to do what we always do: provide trust, standards, connectivity, billions of endpoints, scale, and interoperability to the payments ecosystem.
Beyond capital markets use cases, we see product market fit for stablecoins in two important areas: one, in emerging markets where the local fiat currency is volatile and/or where consumers do not have easy or affordable access to US dollars; and two, in cross-border money movement, both B2B payments and consumer remittances.
Our in-market solutions, partnerships, market activity and product roadmap reflect our commitment to this space.
For example, we have deployed stablecoin-linked cards in many markets around the world with partners such as
Bridge, Rain and Baanx.
In the emerging market use case I mentioned earlier, consumers and businesses are using stablecoins to save money in US dollars, but they also want easy and safe ways to spend that money, and there's no better way to do that than using a Visa card.
Stablecoin-linked Visa cards are an extension of what we have been doing in the crypto space for years. Since
2020, we have enabled crypto users to spend more than $25 billion in Bitcoin, Ethereum and an array of other cryptocurrencies, and now stablecoins.
We are also enabling cross-border money movement capabilities for P2P and B2B in certain emerging markets.
And we are piloting and partnering with stablecoin payments companies who specialize in these markets, as we build out our stablecoin treasury stack for settlement and money movement flows.
A recent example is with Yellow Card in Sub-Saharan Africa. Together, we are working to streamline treasury operations, improve liquidity management, and enable quick and more cost-efficient cross-border transactions.
Additionally, we are also helping banks issue their own stablecoins and realize the benefits of programmable money through our Visa Tokenized Asset Platform. And we offer multi-chain and multi-coin, stablecoin settlement on the Visa network.
We recently expanded our capabilities by adding a euro-backed stablecoin, EURC, and through a partnership with Paxos, two additional regulated stablecoins, USDG and PYUSD.
We are also adding support for two additional blockchains, Stellar and Avalanche, enabling us to support four stablecoins running on four unique blockchains, representing two currencies that we can then accept and convert to over 25 traditional fiat currencies across the world for our clients within settlement infrastructure. There is so much more to come in this space, and we are excited about enabling commercial and money movement flows globally across networks, currencies and form factors.
Now to value-added services, which had one of our strongest revenue growth quarters, up 26% year-over-year in constant dollars. Let me walk through some of the highlights in our four portfolios.
6
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025
In Issuing Solutions, Pismo continues to expand, benefiting from Visa's deep client relationships and trusted partner status. We have now entered Europe with ABN AMRO's neobank, BUUT in the Netherlands, and have also partnered with Lunar, who serves over 1 million consumers and business users for the first Pismo-powered
Visa card across Denmark, Sweden and Norway.
This quarter, we signed with EML Payments in Australia to deploy Pismo for their global issuance strategy, enabling them to consolidate their multiple processing platforms to one across Australia, North America, the UK, and Europe.
In Acceptance Solutions, we continue to grow through both direct relationships with merchants as well as with acquirers.
I'll give two examples of each. First, direct with merchants. We renewed our agreement with ShopeePay, a leading digital payments platform serving tens of millions of users and expanded geographically from Singapore,
Malaysia, and Vietnam, to include the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand, and also expanded with additional products such as tokenization.
Careem Pay, part of Super App Careem that serves over 50 million customers across Middle East and North
Africa, will utilize several value-added services, including Cybersource and Account Verification.
On the acquiring side, in Saudi Arabia, Arab National Bank has selected Visa as their new partner for our
Cybersource and risk solutions to offer to their merchant clients. We also signed with BAC, the largest acquirer in
Central America to provide Cybersource and tokenization to their merchant clients.
In Risk & Security Solutions, our Featurespace capabilities continue to resonate with our clients. This quarter,
TSYS, an existing and important partner of Featurespace, will begin transitioning their tens of billions of transactions to our next-gen SaaS platform, so they can benefit from continued innovation in our advanced AI scoring models in a scalable way.
Moving on to advisory & other services, where our payments, consulting and marketing experience, data and analytics capabilities and sponsorships help us to deepen our relationships with our clients.
For example, AEON Financial Service, one of our largest clients in Japan, renewed their credit relationship and will add consulting, managed services and marketing services to help them grow. I'll call out two other examples of our consulting and marketing services at work.
In Brazil, our consulting and technical teams are working with Caixa to help develop a super app for their over 40 million customers, enhancing digital engagement and loyalty. In the US, fintech Chime utilized our marketing services capabilities to support their brand campaign during the NBA playoffs this past quarter.
With each of these four portfolios growing at strong levels, value-added services remains a powerful engine of revenue growth for our business.
In conclusion, our third quarter results were strong. In Q3 and through July 21, even with the continued uncertainty, consumer spending remains resilient. Within the US, while spending growth differed among consumer spend bands, all spend bands in Q3 remained resilient and consistent with past quarters.
7
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025
Within spend categories in the US, we saw relative stability to Q2 when adjusted for leap year impacts. Both US discretionary and non-discretionary spend growth remains strong, and we see no meaningful impact from tariffs.
For cross-border, total volume growth, excluding intra-Europe remains strong and above pre-COVID levels, even with continued impacts from currency weakness and travel to specific countries. While we're not immune to macroeconomic impacts, our business has proven to be diverse, resilient and well positioned to capture the significant opportunities ahead. We all know that as commerce evolves, so do buyer and seller preferences. We have proven our ability to anticipate these changes and deploy solutions that enable our expanding network of partners to meet and exceed the needs of their users.
Visa has become a hyperscaler that enables anyone around the world to access the breadth, scale and resiliency of our network across more than 200 countries and territories, 150 currencies and nearly 5 billion credentials.
Anybody that wants to be in the money movement business or the payments business can build on top of the
Visa stack. And as we connect billions of buyers and sellers through seamless, secure digital payments, we're very excited about how that will help us enable innovative commerce as we drive Visa's growth forward well into the future.
Now, I'll hand it over to Chris.
Christopher Suh
Chief Financial Officer, Visa, Inc.
Thanks, Ryan, and good afternoon, everyone. Visa reached a record $10.2 billion in quarterly net revenue in our third quarter, up 14% year-over-year, better-than-expected, driven by lower incentives, a lower FX headwind and higher value-added services revenue. Net revenue was also up 14% year-over-year in constant dollars.
Underlying business drivers remained strong. In constant dollars, global payments volume was up 8% year-over- year, and cross-border volume, excluding intra-Europe, was up 11% year-over-year. Total processed transactions grew 10% year-over-year. EPS was up 23% year-over-year in nominal and constant dollars, better-than- expected, primarily due to the strength in net revenue growth.
Let's go into the details. Total international payments volume was up 10% year-over-year in constant dollars in
Q3, relatively consistent with Q2 when adjusted for leap year. US payments volume was up 7% with e-commerce growing faster than face-to-face spend. Credit was up 6% and debit was up 7%.
When we look at US payments volume year-over-year growth on a monthly basis, April was stronger than March, primarily due to Easter timing and some portfolio loss lapping that continued throughout the quarter. May was relatively in line with April, and June was softer, primarily due to the impact of both days mix and bill pay timing.
Putting it all together, total Q3 US payments volume growth was generally consistent with Q2 adjusted for leap year.
Now to cross-border volume, which I'll speak to in constant dollars and excluding intra-Europe transactions. You may recall that we expected Q3 total cross-border volume growth to moderate from Q2 and be slightly below Q4 of FY 2024, primarily due to the impacts of weaker currencies in certain countries and the Canada to US travel corridor.
In Q3, those impacts generally played out as we expected, with total cross-border volume year-over-year growth at 11%, e-commerce up 13%, and travel up 9%, even with some monthly variability.
8
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025
April benefited from Easter and Ramadan timing, and May moderated from April without this timing benefit. In
June, we saw the growth step down from May, primarily due to further weakening of the US dollar, and a few smaller factors that largely reversed in July. As Ryan said, Visa's Q3 total cross-border volume growth was strong and remained above the pre-COVID trend.
With that as a backdrop, I'll move to discuss our financial results, starting with the revenue components. Service revenue grew 9% year-over-year versus the 8% growth in Q2 constant dollar payments volume, helped by pricing and card benefits that more than offset the exchange rate drag.
Data processing revenue grew 15% versus 10% in processed transaction growth primarily due to pricing.
International transaction revenue was up 14%, above the 11% increase in constant dollar cross-border volume, excluding intra-Europe, helped by elevated currency volatility and exchange rates, partially offset by hedging and mix. Other revenue grew 32%, primarily driven by advisory and other value-added services and pricing.
Client incentives grew 13%, lower-than-expected, primarily due to two factors: first, deal timing, as we saw some expected deals shift out of Q3; second, we expanded several client relationships, which led to updated incentive terms and one-time reductions in the associated accruals.
Now to our three growth engines. Consumer payments revenue was driven by strong payments volume, cross- border volume, and processed transaction growth. Commercial and money movement solutions revenue grew
13% year-over-year in constant dollars.
Commercial payments volume grew 7% year-over-year in constant dollars, accelerating slightly from Q2 adjusted for leap year, primarily due to the lapping of certain portfolio losses.
Visa Direct transactions grew 25% year-over-year to 3.3 billion transactions with strength in both domestic and cross-border P2P. Value-added services revenue was $2.8 billion with growth accelerating to 26% year-over-year in constant dollars. This was driven by strength across all portfolios and pricing.
Operating expenses grew 13%, higher-than-expected, primarily due to a lower-than-expected FX benefit and higher-than-expected personnel expenses. Non-operating income was $191 million, helped by investment income from higher cash balances.
Our tax rate for the quarter was 17.3%, in line with expectations. EPS was $2.98, up 23% over last year with minimal impacts from both exchange rates and acquisitions.
During the quarter, we issued €3.5 billion of fixed rate senior notes with maturities ranging between 3 and 19 years and interest rates from 2.25% to 3.875%. In addition, we bought back approximately $4.8 billion in stock and distributed $1.2 billion in dividends to our stockholders. At the end of June, we had $29.8 billion remaining in our buyback authorization.
Now let's move to what we've seen so far in Q4. Through July 21, US payment volume was up 9%, with debit up
10%, and credit up 9% year-over-year. Even when adjusting for lapping the weather and technology outages impacts from last July, we saw strong growth, primarily due to the timing of July 4, the days mix impact I mentioned for June now helping July, and the timing of promotional shopping events. Processed transactions grew 11% year-over-year.
9
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025
For constant dollar cross-border volume, excluding transactions within Europe, total volume grew more than 10% year-over-year with e-commerce up 13%, and travel up 9%.
July total cross-border volume growth accelerated more than 1 point from June, as we saw improvement in both e-commerce and travel, primarily due to strong retail spend in e-commerce, the dollar strengthening versus certain currencies, and the reversal of a few smaller factors that impacted June.
Now, on to our expectations. Remember that adjusted basis is defined as non-GAAP results in constant dollars and excluding acquisition impacts. You can review these disclosures in our earnings presentation for more detail.
For Q4, when we take the latest trends for business drivers and volatility as well as our current view of deal timing, our adjusted net revenue expectations are unchanged in the high single-digits to low double-digits. On a nominal basis, this puts Q4 net revenue growth generally in line with first half of FY 2025 nominal net revenue growth, which was about 10%.
Moving to adjusted operating expenses, which we expect to grow in the high single-digits to low double-digits.
Non-operating income in the fourth quarter is expected to be minimal, and our tax rate in the fourth quarter is expected to be between 18.5% and 19%. As a result, we expect adjusted fourth quarter EPS growth to be in the high single-digits.
For acquisition impacts, we expect a minimal benefit to net revenue growth and approximately 1.5 point contribution to operating expense growth and an approximately 0.5 point headwind to EPS growth in the fourth quarter.
Pulling it all together, for the full year, we have no changes to our full year adjusted guidance except for non- operating income, which we expect to be about $250 million as a result of the third quarter.
However, it is important to note that when you incorporate our performance year-to-date with our Q4 guidance, even though the full year guidance ranges are unchanged, we now expect our net revenue growth and EPS growth to be stronger than previously anticipated.
It's also a good reminder of the strength of Visa's diverse business model, where in the face of changing conditions throughout the year, we still expect to deliver strong growth and leading profitability.
As we look ahead and plan for 2026, while we're contemplating a variety of economic scenarios, the strength and diversity of our business model that I just mentioned, the resilience of the consumer and our clear and effective strategy, together give us the confidence as we make investment decisions to build the future of payments and drive long-term growth.
And now, Jennifer, time for some Q&A.
Jennifer Como
Senior Vice President & Global Head-Investor Relations, Visa, Inc.
Thanks, Chris. And with that, we're ready to take questions.
10
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025
QUESTION AND ANSWER SECTION
Operator
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Harshita Rawat with Bernstein. You may go ahead.
Harshita Rawat Q
Analyst, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC
Hi, good afternoon. Chris, I want to follow-up on the fourth quarter guide, if you can provide more color. Can you maybe help us kind of bridge the kind of deceleration from the third quarter? I know you talked about kind of FX volatility, to some extent, incentives. But anything else to call out also, I think, with regards to cross-border?
Thank you.
Christopher Suh A
Chief Financial Officer, Visa, Inc.
Hi, Harsha. Yeah, so let's talk about Q4. We're expecting a fundamentally strong Q4 with strong drivers and continued resilient consumer spending. Now the guide reflects reported growth in Q4 that is being impacted by the lapping of some items that we spoke about last Q4. Specifically, there were one-time impacts that reduced incentives, the lowest growth quarter of last year. If you recall, Q4 last year grew 6% incentives. And also, we had a very strong VAS quarter related to the Summer Olympics again last Q4. If you normalize for those lapping items
– those one-time lapping items for last year, Q4 growth would have been firmly in the double digits. So, that's sort of the absolute description of Q4.
Now versus Q3, which was your specific question, Q3 was a very strong quarter, driven by strong drivers, higher currency volatility, strong VAS, and lower incentives as we talked about. And if I compare the two quarters, really the big differences are going to be currency volatility, which was high in Q3, especially early in the quarter, has settled down, and that's our assumption through the rest of Q4.
And the second one is incentives where, again, Q3 benefited from one-time incentives that we talked about – that
I talked about in my prepared comments, and Q4 is anniversarying the benefits that we saw in incentives from a year ago. So normalize for those two things, Q3 is a strong quarter, Q4 is a strong quarter. And when you add it up, we're going to finish a very strong FY 2025 higher than we thought entering the quarter.
Jennifer Como A
Senior Vice President & Global Head-Investor Relations, Visa, Inc.
Next question please.
Operator
Thank you. Our next caller is Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan. You may go ahead.
Jennifer Como A
Senior Vice President & Global Head-Investor Relations, Visa, Inc.
Hi, Tien-Tsin, are you there?
Tien-Tsin Huang Q
Analyst, JPMorgan Securities LLC
11
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025
I am, can you hear me, Jennifer? I'm sorry.
Jennifer Como A
Senior Vice President & Global Head-Investor Relations, Visa, Inc.
Yes. Now we can. Now we can.
Tien-Tsin Huang Q
Analyst, JPMorgan Securities LLC
Okay. Thanks. Yeah, my name is the hard one. Just wanted to – maybe I'll ask on investment priorities, if that's okay. I'm just curious if that's changing at all, given – I know, Ryan, you talked a lot about AI and stablecoin to us here intra-quarter. So, I'm just curious if your priorities have changed because it does look like OpEx is running a little bit higher and fourth quarter reported implies not much operating leverage. So I'm just curious if you're changing some of your investments there, given some of the news, GENIUS Act, et cetera?
Ryan McInerney A
Chief Executive Officer & Director, Visa, Inc.
Hi, Tien-Tsin. Let me talk about your question around priorities. And then I'm actually going to have Chris just talk briefly about OpEx, because I think there's a very clear explanation that will be helpful to you.
In terms of priorities, no change from what I've been talking about publicly. We have a deep and rich product pipeline. We feel great about the products that we put out into market, both the ones that we've deployed and the ones that we announced at our Product Drop in April. And we're always nipping and tucking in certain markets and adjusting kind of where we're going to go launch in this country versus that country. But no, overall, priorities remain the same. We feel great about the momentum that we have in market and continue to drive that forward.
But Chris, I think he was teed off a little bit by the OpEx part of his question. Do you want to just address that
OpEx.
Christopher Suh A
Chief Financial Officer, Visa, Inc.
Yes, let me address that. So, I'll talk about Q3 and Q4. So, Q3 OpEx did come in a little higher than we anticipated. There was a couple of things. One was the FX benefit was less than expected. And then the second one, which I mentioned on the call, was higher personnel costs. And just to click into that, specifically the overage came from higher costs related to the mark to market, the deferred compensation liability. But just for clarity, that's
EPS-neutral is because we record the equivalent gain on that mark to market in NOI and that contributed part to the NOI overperformance.
As far as Q4 goes, as Ryan talked about, we're investing in many things across our broad business to drive growth. And we're anticipating to grow OpEx in the high-single digits to low-double digits. We're doing all that investment and growing OpEx in line with revenue for Q4.
Jennifer Como A
Senior Vice President & Global Head-Investor Relations, Visa, Inc.
Next question, please.
Operator
Thank you. Our next caller is Trevor Williams with Jefferies. You may go ahead, sir.
12
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025
Trevor Williams Q
Analyst, Jefferies LLC
Great. Thanks very much. I wanted to go back to the spread between international transaction fees and the nominal cross-border volume. I think this quarter, that spread was less than 1 point, even though, Chris, you called out currency vol being up pretty significantly year-over-year. And I think hedging and mix were the main offsets that were also mentioned.
If you could just expand on both of those. And then especially on mix, you guys have been clear about US inbound travel having slowed. I'm just curious how much of an impact that's having overall on the yield dynamic there? Thanks very much.
Christopher Suh A
Chief Financial Officer, Visa, Inc.
Yeah. Sure, Trevor. Let's go into all the different components, as you called out. Well, the two numbers that I'll reference is the 11% growth in total cross-border versus the 14% international. And as you point out, the spread shrinks on a nominal basis. So, the three factors were higher currency volatility, we've talked about that at length.
And then the other two items, hedging, which is in line with our strategy to mitigate cash flow impacts of FX movements. And in this quarter, we had a hedging loss that offset a portion of the favorable impact of the weaker
US dollar.
And then the third one being mix. You mentioned Canada to US, that is a variable in here. So across our business, the composition of our yields can and does vary, different clients, different regions. And that's an example I'll use. US inbound is one of our higher-yielding corridors, and that's being impacted by the Canada to
US volume. So, the mix can certainly be an offset to the higher volatility. Those are the puts and takes for the quarter within that line specifically. But all-in-all, we're pleased, again, that revenue, whether it's in international or in data processing or service fee, we're outgrowing volumes in all three categories.
Jennifer Como A
Senior Vice President & Global Head-Investor Relations, Visa, Inc.
Next question, please.
Operator
Timothy Chiodo with UBS. Please go ahead.
Timothy E. Chiodo Q
Analyst, UBS Securities LLC
Great. Thank you for taking the question. I want to see if we can dig in a little bit to Visa Direct. So on our estimates, it's becoming a more important part of the volume growth algorithm and particularly for debit. I want to see if we could hit two topics. One is some of the newer or faster growth use cases. One in particular that you mentioned earlier in the prepared remarks around banks signing up to use Visa Direct as their cross-border platform.
And then, the second item I was hoping we could touch on is some of the pricing dynamics. At the Investor Day, there was a slide that showed the roughly $0.09 to $0.10 yield on Visa Direct. I was hoping you could talk a little bit about the pricing strategy there and to the extent that that may or may not be evolving to maybe add some ad valorem fees and whether or not that might have contributed at all to any of the strength in data processing.
Thank you.
13
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025
Ryan McInerney A
Chief Executive Officer & Director, Visa, Inc.
Hi. It's Ryan. I'll try to hit the high points of what you're asking there. Thanks for the question on Visa Direct. Love talking about Visa Direct. Coming back to the top of your comments, and we shared this at Investor Day as well, we now crossed the 10 billion transaction mark, at least on a rolling 12 months, which we're very excited about.
So, I think Visa Direct has really scaled in a meaningful way.
As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, it is the largest at-scale money movement platform in the world, however you want to measure it, whether it's endpoints, or transactions, or volumes, or partners, or what have you. And the investments that we've made in that platform over time are what are helping our sales teams and client teams around the world sell into a lot of these new and exciting use cases.
You mentioned the banks enabling and embedding Visa Direct as their cross-border money movement platform.
That's something we've been very focused on and we're having good success. And I believe there's a big opportunity here. I think there's a big opportunity for banks around the world to play a more direct role in money movement.
When we're sitting and talking to our bank partners around the world, they often recognize that a lot of their users are leaving their bank app and maybe going to another fintech or another money movement platform to send remittances, for example, and they view that as a lost opportunity.
And so, they're using Visa Direct to power a remittance platform and a money movement platform and embed that in their app so that they can deepen their relationship with their users. Their users are getting more value from their financial institutions and ultimately driving more value as well.
In terms of the pricing and the yield dynamics, it really differs. We price to value, as we always talk about on this call. The competitive dynamics are different in every vertical and every use case in every country around the world. We're going up against different competitors in CEMEA than we are in Latin America than we might be in
Europe.
And the pricing has different components to it as well. Just because we talked about the yield in cents per transaction, don't necessarily assume that reflects all the different pricing, whether it's the remittance topic that you asked about specifically or just Visa Direct in general.
We talked about it in that way, because that's generally the right way that we think to think about the revenue dynamics is kind of what are we earning in cents per transaction. And as we said during Investor Day, it's similar yields to what we're seeing in the debit business globally. So, feeling good about all those – on all those fronts and the momentum that we have in the Visa Direct business.
Jennifer Como A
Senior Vice President & Global Head-Investor Relations, Visa, Inc.
Next question please.
Operator
Thank you. Gus Gala with Monness, Crespi, Hardt. You may go ahead, sir.
Gus Gala Q
Analyst, Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co., Inc.
14
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025
Hey, Chris or Ryan, thank you for letting me on the call. Street is currently looking for an acceleration in volume transactions in fiscal 2026. If we think of the macro comp persisting in June, July levels kind of there and bank activity level kind of staying where it is, is that kind of a realistic expectation?
And then on the comments on the lower – there was a large peer probably sort of commented on lower bank activity levels. You mentioned deal timing being moved back in the prep remarks. Any part of the stack or transaction where that's maybe happening within VAS or parts of VAS where that's more acute? I mean, granted you guys still accelerated in the quarter. But just any color around that would be very helpful. Thanks.
Ryan McInerney A
Chief Executive Officer & Director, Visa, Inc.
Why don't I take the second part of the question on VAS, and then you can address the first part of the question, which I think was a question. You were going a little in and out, so sorry to – I think it was a question around
2026. We really feel great about the momentum in the value-added services business. As you heard in both my and Chris's prepared remarks, firing on all cylinders across all of the different businesses.
Maybe just as a reminder in terms of how we're thinking about the overall VAS strategy because I think you're seeing the results of that strategy now. We've been focused on our VAS business for a long time about enhancing
Visa transactions, making Visa payments safer, simpler, easier, more reliable. And that has been historically how we've generated most of the VAS revenue that we've generated.
Where we've really seen a lot of success is in the two additional strategic levers that we talked about. The second is putting our VAS to work, enabling all different types of payments, other card payments, account-to-account payments, digital wallet payments, partnering with RTP networks around the world and digital wallet players. I mentioned in my prepared remarks the partnership that we have in Brazil to power Pix payments. So, we're really starting to see a lot of momentum in this second leg of the strategy by putting our VAS to work to enable all different types of payments.
And then the third area, which is really going beyond payments in helping our clients with a whole range of things from marketing to managed services, the strategy, the analytics to data. And there too, in my prepared remarks, you heard a lot of great examples from all around the world of the success we're having in that area. So good progress, good momentum, and you're starting to see kind of the strategy that we talked about a couple years ago really start to come through in the performance in the numbers. I think, Chris, I think, there was a question about
2026.
Christopher Suh A
Chief Financial Officer, Visa, Inc.
Yeah, let me comment on 2026. Obviously, we're focused on closing Q4 and finishing FY 2025 strong, but we are also in the planning phases for FY 2026. And broadly, we see tremendous opportunity across our three growth engines, consumer payments, CMS and VAS. And as we think about 2026, we're evaluating several drivers and parameters, including various macroeconomic scenarios, expected client renewals and pricing in both the card- present and card-not-present environment as well as the investments we want to make to build the future of payments. Now we'll have a lot more to say about 2026 in our next earnings call.
Jennifer Como A
Senior Vice President & Global Head-Investor Relations, Visa, Inc.
Next question please?
15
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025
Operator
Will Nance with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Will Nance Q
Analyst, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Hey guys. You got all the way to me here without getting a stablecoin question, so I'll ask one on the remittance space, which you guys called out as a potential use case. Could you talk a little bit about how you see, what of the role of stablecoins in that space? Is it on the pricing side, the settlement side? And do you expect the value of the role that stablecoins play to accrue to the service providers in that space? Or do you expect it to accrue to the consumers in the form of lower pricing? Thank you.
Ryan McInerney A
Chief Executive Officer & Director, Visa, Inc.
Thanks Will. A lot in there. And as you know, it's early days but we see a lot of opportunity, specifically in remittances. And as I said in my prepared remarks, more broadly in cross-border, whether it's P2P or B2B. So let me hit a couple of points. First is Visa Direct. Visa Direct, as you know, is our remittance platform. And it is a network of networks that enables money movement all around the world and lots of different currencies. We're able to push money and to – I think it's 14 (sic) [more than 11] billion different endpoints now, whether it's cards, wallets or bank accounts.
And for some of those use cases, in some of those corridors, the money movement and transactions are near- instant. But sometimes, for example, sending money from a Visa card to a bank account in an emerging market, we're reliant on local banking infrastructure.
So, in these types of use cases, stablecoins could enable us to have faster cross-border transactions that, by the way, that's true for consumers or for businesses. And we've been testing that out and having some good results.
We've been testing a series of corridors and putting stablecoins to work directly versus the fiat currency money movement options that we're able to deliver to our clients and their users today.
And at this point, we've got a pretty good sense on which corridors we can provide faster money movement, cheaper money movement, which ultimately is value, I think, that will accrue both to end users and to our clients.
So we're working through all of those things. I do think, as I said in my prepared remarks, that there is real product-market fit for stablecoins in remittances for certain corridors. And as the largest money movement platform around the world, we're going to be an early adopter of a lot of those things on behalf of our clients and their end users.
Jennifer Como A
Senior Vice President & Global Head-Investor Relations, Visa, Inc.
Next question please?
Operator
Thank you. Dan Dolev with Mizuho, you may go ahead sir.
Dan Dolev Q
Analyst, Mizuho Securities USA LLC
16
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025
Thank you. And just tying the two things together really strong VAS growth and stablecoins – have you been – has the growth been helped by your services and consulting that you're providing on stablecoins? And are you monetizing that?
And if I could squeeze in one housekeeping question on sort of the right way to think about incentives, mid-20s in the fourth quarter and heading into the 2026, if you can answer it. Thank you.
Ryan McInerney A
Chief Executive Officer & Director, Visa, Inc.
Okay, I'll let Chris answer the question on incentives. Thanks for your question on advisory. Our advisory business has been doing strong growth all around the world for a while now.
And as you alluded to, and as you – I think you would expect – the most complicated, most impactful topics that are happening around the world in money movement are the ones where we're engaging with our clients. So, yes, on stablecoins and crypto more broadly.
We launched our Crypto Advisory Practice several years ago, I can't remember now. But our clients, both issuers and people on the seller side of the ecosystem, have really come to rely on our team of experts around the world to help them inform their strategies. And also, that leads to opportunities for us to put our products and services to work.
So, for example, the Visa Tokenized Asset Platform is a platform that we've built to help financial institutions issue, and mint, and burn stablecoins. And when we're working with them on their stablecoin strategies, that's a natural opportunity for us to kind of embed a platform like that.
We're also having a lot of success working with our clients on agentic, both AI broadly in terms of how they're running their companies, but specifically, as you'd imagine, the implications and the products and services that they're going to need to bring to market to win kind of in the agentic space.
And those are just a couple examples. I just want to take the opportunity to say thank you to our teams all around the world that have been working with our clients on all those tough topics and really helping them and serving our clients in a meaningful way. Chris, I think, he had a question about incentives.
Christopher Suh A
Chief Financial Officer, Visa, Inc.
Yeah, Q4 incentives was the question. So, I want to provide a little bit of context. A lot of what I'm going to say is things that were in my prepared comments, but also reminding you of some of the things that we said in previous quarters. As we've communicated all this year and earlier in my comments, we expected incentives to step up sequentially into Q3 and into Q4. And as a result, we have always consistently expected Q4 to be the highest growth quarter of FY 2025 from an incentive point of view, in part because of the lapping that I talked about in the
Q4 number when we talked about the lapping of the one-time items.
But also, what I spoke about last quarter, which was the impact of performance adjustment, some deal timing that occurred prior to Q3. And so when you add that all up, Q4 was going to be the high point for incentives.
But that all said, again, I'll just reiterate our guidance today, our view of adjusted net revenue for Q4 is unchanged from the view that we had a quarter ago. Even after contemplating all the re-estimation of the current volatility
17
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025 outlook, drivers and our latest view of deal closures into Q4, it's going to be a fundamental strong Q4 to cap off a strong FY 2025.
Jennifer Como A
Senior Vice President & Global Head-Investor Relations, Visa, Inc.
Next question, please.
Operator
Darrin Peller with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Darrin Peller Q
Analyst, Wolfe Research LLC
Hey. Thanks, guys. Could we just touch on, number one, the pricing dynamic that we're seeing in data processing, and the spread between growth on revenue and volume was obviously strong. Just maybe explain a little more of what's going on behind it, where you're seeing the value on raising price there and just the timing on it. Is it sustainable?
And then, just to revisit incentives also, on timing also, because I think this year, fiscal 2025, was supposed to be a higher year of renewals. I think you had talked about 20% of the book or something along those lines versus a norm, more like 15%. So, is that still the case? And would we expect that to be more normalized next year?
Thanks, guys.
Christopher Suh A
Chief Financial Officer, Visa, Inc.
Yeah. I'll take both of these, Darrin. So pricing, again, I'm going to go back to some of the things that we said earlier in this year. When we entered this year, we said the pricing benefit in FY 2025 is going to be similar to FY
2024, but the timing would be more back half weighted. And if you recall, in Q1 and Q2, when we were having these conversations about revenue versus yield, pricing was less benefit than we might typically see in half one, consistent with that timing of pricing.
And so now, pricing, back half loaded, we're having a more concentrated impact in Q3 and Q4. And that's really sort of what's happening. And so, it's great that we see revenue outperforming volumes on data processing and a number of other spots.
In terms of your second part of your question around the amount of volume of deals and deal timing, you are correct, 2025 is a bigger year for renewals than 2024. You quoted the 20% number. We still believe 20% of our
PV is impacted this year above the 15% last year. It's just more deal activity. And as you know, the deals are long in duration, increasingly more expansive, which inherently brings the level of complexity.
These are important deals. And so, sometimes they take a long time to get right, and we're going to take the time to get them right. The good news is we feel really good about the success we're having renewing and expanding our client partnerships. But as you can see, the timing can vary a bit from quarter to quarter.
Jennifer Como A
Senior Vice President & Global Head-Investor Relations, Visa, Inc.
Next question, please.
18
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025
Operator
Fahed Kunwar with Rothschild & Co Redburn. You may go ahead.
Fahed Kunwar Q
Analyst, Redburn (Europe) Ltd.
Hi, both, and thanks for all the answers to the questions. Super helpful. I had one more on incentives, if you don't mind. If I go back a little further, incentive growth as a percentage of revenue has been going up about 1 percentage point a year for the best part of 10 years. It does feel like in the last kind of year and a half, it has stabilized or at least in last year at that 28% level. I know you talked about renewal cycles now, but is this an inflection point? Now, do we think that incentive growth now broadly runs in line with revenues and that kind of trend line up has kind of inflected to be flat? Or is there something else that we're missing with some other change as to why we might see an inflection back upwards to that old growth rate? Thanks.
Christopher Suh A
Chief Financial Officer, Visa, Inc.
Sure. I'll take this one as well. No, I mean it's just honestly not the way that we think about our business. This is consistent with the way we've been talking about net revenue growth, and that's our focus. We're growing volumes. We're growing net revenues along with our partners, and incentives are simply a tool for us to achieve mutual goals. And it does get impacted, of course, by the volume of expirations and renewals, and it can vary from year-to-year. But I certainly am not going to comment on sort of the relationship between those two. We're driving net revenue growth and driving volumes, and that's the most important thing.
Jennifer Como A
Senior Vice President & Global Head-Investor Relations, Visa, Inc.
Next question please.
Operator
Nate Svensson with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Nate Svensson Q
Analyst, Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Hi, guys. Thanks for the question. I wanted to talk a little more about cross-border trends, especially travel. I know you gave some color in the prepared remarks, but it looks like we've had a couple of soft months here in June, maybe a little bit of recovery in July month-to-date. Hoping you can give an update on what you're seeing specifically in international travel in your book of business, maybe what bookings look like, what impact recent FX moves are doing to consumer demand, et cetera? And then anything to call out on specific quarters? I know we talked about inbound US from Canada, but anything like Europe to US or any other changing dynamics you've seen maybe over the past three months or July month-to-date?
Christopher Suh A
Chief Financial Officer, Visa, Inc.
Sure. Okay. Let's talk cross-border. And this one, we'll sort of try to break into a fair level of detail, so bear with me. Just starting from the top, just so we have sort of a complete picture, cross-border growth in Q3, as we reported, 11% that's ex intra-Europe in constant dollar, largely in line with the directional expectations that we had set at the beginning of the quarter. We did see variation from month-to-month for the factors that we talked about, holiday, timing of Easter, Ramadan, weakness in currency, US to Canada (sic) [Canada to US], all those things that we had anticipated the – to happen in Q3, much of it did play out.
19
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025
We did see the US dollar weaken further, which may have impacted the June month as well. And then obviously, in July, you referenced this as well. We've seen it accelerate more than 1 point from June. And we've seen that improvement in both travel and e-commerce related, we believe, due to the dollar strengthening again in July versus certain currencies. But also we see strong retail spend in e-commerce and the reversal of some of the – few of the smaller factors that we referenced in June.
So obviously, the growth rates month-to-month, it's a little bit fluid, and we're likely to see it continue to be fluid as long as we continue to see currency exchange movements at the speed and pace that we're seeing it. But we also don't believe circumstances like the current Canada, the US corridor are permanent structural changes either. And so we could see some strengthening there or we could see further sort of impact from sentiment around the world.
Specific to corridors, which is the second part of your – I'll give a few examples. We've talked extensively about
Canada to US. That's remaining relatively consistent. US outbound, historically, that's been very sensitive to the strength or weakness of the US dollar. And with the recent weakening US outbound, we believe, has been impacted in a correlated way. AP currency has remained weak as well and has continued to remain weak and across a number of markets in AP and that's impacting travel there as well.
And then, of course, the timing of various holidays, Easter, which had a larger impact in Europe. And Ramadan, of course, had a larger impact in CEMEA. Those are some of the things that we're seeing from a corridor standpoint. But again, if we zoom out of the month-to-month and we look at cross-border in total, the overall level, the data, the trends and we understand sort of the currency impacts that can have – that can be – that can show up, cross-border volume, we think, in total, has remained strong and above pre-COVID levels.
Jennifer Como A
Senior Vice President & Global Head-Investor Relations, Visa, Inc.
Last question, please, Michelle.
Operator
Thank you. Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW. You may go ahead, sir.
Sanjay Sakhrani Q
Analyst, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.
Thank you. Had a bigger picture stablecoin question. Totally understand that Visa can add stablecoins to its suite of payment methods, link it to its products and services and acceptance network. But I think as we pull up on the long runway to tap into the large revenue TAM in payments, Ryan, do you think stablecoins dilute that? Or do you think it keeps it the same? Does it add to it? When does it become a material contributor in your view? And by the way, those chime ads during the NBA playoffs are pretty good. Thanks.
Ryan McInerney A
Chief Executive Officer & Director, Visa, Inc.
Sanjay, you're the best. If go back to the product market fit that I described. If you agree with that, which clearly I do, I think it's a lot of opportunity for us. And why do I say that? The first, on the emerging markets use cases, the bulk of those markets around the world are very cash-rich markets. The bulk of those markets around the world are markets where we haven't been as successful digitizing cash as we have in more mature markets.
And so to the extent that stablecoins get adopted in a broad-based way by both consumers and businesses, and assuming that we are able to continue to have success with our playbook of making Visa cards the preferred way
20
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC
Visa, Inc.
(V) Corrected Transcript
Q3 2025 Earnings Call 29-Jul-2025 for people who have stablecoins in those markets to pay for things, I think that could accelerate our progress digitizing consumer payments and business, small business and commercial payments in those markets.
The second product – area of product market fit that I mentioned was cross-border. And as you know well, the cross-border TAM in terms of whether it's remittances or B2B money movement, those are enormous TAMs that we're still relatively low in terms of our penetration of those as well. And so I think to the extent that we can do the types of things I was mentioning in the question that Will asked earlier for remittances on our Visa Direct platform, that's going to be an opportunity for us to continue to expand and accelerate our growth in remittances.
So I'm genuinely optimistic about what stablecoins could do to accelerate, our progress digitizing flows, whether it's consumer payments or opportunities in CMS, and we'll continue to update you as we learn more.
Jennifer Como
Senior Vice President & Global Head-Investor Relations, Visa, Inc.
And with that, we'd like to thank you for joining us today. If you have additional questions, please feel free to call or e-mail our Investor Relations team. Thanks again, and have a great day.
Operator
Thank you all for participating in Visa's fiscal third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. That concludes today's conference. You may disconnect at this time, and please enjoy the rest of your day.
Disclaimer
The information herein is based on sources we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us and does not purport to be a complete or error-free statement or summary of the available data.
As such, we do not warrant, endorse or guarantee the completeness, accuracy, integrity, or timeliness of the information. You must evaluate, and bear all risks associated with, the use of any information provided hereunder, including any reliance on the accuracy, completeness, safety or usefulness of such information. This information is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions. It should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor. This report is published solely for information purposes, and is not to be construed as financial or other advice or as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any state where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. Any information expressed herein on this date is subject to change without notice. Any opinions or assertions contained in this information do not represent the opinions or beliefs of FactSet
CallStreet, LLC. FactSet CallStreet, LLC, or one or more of its employees, including the writer of this report, may have a position in any of the securities discussed herein.
THE INFORMATION PROVIDED TO YOU HEREUNDER IS PROVIDED "AS IS," AND TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW, FactSet CallStreet, LLC AND ITS LICENSORS,
BUSINESS ASSOCIATES AND SUPPLIERS DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE SAME, EXPRESS, IMPLIED AND STATUTORY, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION ANY IMPLIED
WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT. TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE
LAW, NEITHER FACTSET CALLSTREET, LLC NOR ITS OFFICERS, MEMBERS, DIRECTORS, PARTNERS, AFFILIATES, BUSINESS ASSOCIATES, LICENSORS OR SUPPLIERS WILL BE LIABLE FOR ANY
INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, CONSEQUENTIAL OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION DAMAGES FOR LOST PROFITS OR REVENUES, GOODWILL, WORK STOPPAGE,
SECURITY BREACHES, VIRUSES, COMPUTER FAILURE OR MALFUNCTION, USE, DATA OR OTHER INTANGIBLE LOSSES OR COMMERCIAL DAMAGES, EVEN IF ANY OF SUCH PARTIES IS ADVISED
OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH LOSSES, ARISING UNDER OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN OR ANY OTHER SUBJECT MATTER HEREOF.
The contents and appearance of this report are Copyrighted FactSet CallStreet, LLC 2025 CallStreet and FactSet CallStreet, LLC are trademarks and service marks of FactSet CallStreet, LLC. All other trademarks mentioned are trademarks of their respective companies. All rights reserved.
21
1-877-FACTSET www.callstreet.com Copyright © 2001-2025 FactSet CallStreet, LLC