revenue
78 $billion
Q1 2027
official guidance
NVIDIA CORPORATION
Last · NASDAQ$217.44-3.34 (-1.51%)stale · yahoo · 167h ago
Market cap$5.25T24.15B sh
P/E · TTM27.5fwd 14.1 · eps 7.91
Beta2.21vs S&P 500
Div yield0.46%annual · TTM
52w range
$164.07$236.54
Volume106.9Msession
| Revenue | $303.0B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $197.6B |
| Net income | $192.9B |
| Free cash flow | $127.0B |
| Operating margin | 65.2% |
| Net margin | 63.7% |
| Return on equity | 84.2% |
| Period | TTM 2026-07-26 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
BuyHoldSell
Exceptional demand, execution, and roadmap visibility outweigh elevated customer-spending, China, and competition risks.
Buy.
NVIDIA delivered $68 billion of Q4 revenue, up 73% year over year, with data-center revenue of $62 billion, up 75%; Q1 FY27 guidance of $78 billion plus or minus 2% keeps the growth engine well above expectations for durability. The core bull case is sustained Blackwell demand, expanding inference and networking, and Rubin beginning production shipments in the second half, but the key tension is whether roughly $700 billion of 2026 hyperscaler and cloud CapEx can remain economically justified after the current spending wave.
Themes
- Blackwell
- Rubin Transition
- Agentic Ai
- Inference
- Networking
- Hyperscaler Capex
Near term
Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra demand should drive continued data-center growth, while Rubin product announcements and customer commitments at GTC could reinforce second-half expectations.
Gaming is supply constrained for at least the next couple of quarters, limiting an otherwise strong consumer business.
Inventory and purchase commitments are rising ahead of demand into calendar 2027; execution and supply availability will be closely watched.
The lack of China data-center revenue in Q1 guidance leaves any regulatory approval as upside, but also highlights geopolitical uncertainty.
Longer term
CUDA, NVLink, networking, CPUs, and full-rack co-design create a broad platform moat as workloads shift from training toward inference and agentic AI.
Networking is becoming a larger economic share of each AI factory: Q4 networking revenue reached $11 billion, up more than 3.5x year over year, while full-year networking revenue exceeded $31 billion.
Rubin's claimed up-to-10x inference token-cost improvement versus Blackwell could support pricing power and another upgrade cycle if delivered in volume.
Analysts' pushback on the sustainability of approximately $700 billion of hyperscaler and cloud CapEx remains the central thesis risk; NVIDIA's answer was largely that profitable tokens will make compute revenue-generative, rather than providing customer-level utilization or return-on-investment data.
Physical AI, robotics, automotive, and sovereign infrastructure broaden the opportunity beyond a small group of hyperscalers, but these markets remain less mature and less material than data center.
Red flags
Management did not quantify customer returns, utilization, or cash-flow payback sufficient to independently validate the claim that agentic AI will support continued hyperscaler CapEx growth.
NVIDIA is committing inventory and capacity further out than usual while advanced-architecture supply remains tight, increasing downside if customer timing or product transitions change.
China revenue remains absent from the outlook, while management acknowledged Chinese competitors could disrupt the global AI industry over time.
Gross-margin durability depends on repeated generational performance-per-watt gains; the call offered a framework rather than concrete post-Rubin margin evidence.
Custom silicon and inference-specific competitors remain a risk. Groq addresses low-latency inference through a licensing relationship, but the financial impact and integration economics were not disclosed.
Forward outlook
gross margin
74.9 pct
Q1 2027
official guidance
gross margin
75 pct
Q1 2027
official guidance
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest 10-K · 2026-02-25
- Blackwell Demand
- Cuda Moat
- Customer Concentration
- Supply Commitments
- Gross Margin Pressure
- China Export Controls
- Inventory Risk
- Partner Guarantees
Red flags
- Revenue concentration increased sharply: one direct customer represented 22% of fiscal 2026 revenue and another represented 14%, versus 12% and two customers at 11% each in fiscal 2025.
- Manufacturing, supply, and capacity commitments totaled $95.2 billion as of January 25, 2026, with substantially all payable through fiscal 2027; these commitments are based on forecasts that could prove overstated if AI demand, product transitions, or customer orders change.
- Inventory and excess purchase-commitment provisions totaled $7.2 billion in fiscal 2026, including the $4.5 billion H20 charge; the net effect reduced gross margin by 2.6 percentage points.
- Gross margin fell 3.9 percentage points to 71.1% as NVIDIA shifted from Hopper HGX systems to Blackwell full-scale data-center solutions, indicating that system mix and transition costs can materially change profitability.
- Warranty liabilities more than doubled to $2.8 billion from $1.3 billion, with fiscal 2026 additions of $2.5 billion, primarily tied to the Compute & Networking segment.
- The company held $10.5 billion of publicly traded investments subject to short-term lockups and $4.8 billion subject to lockups through December 2027; fiscal 2026 other income included large unrealized investment gains, creating earnings volatility.
- NVIDIA’s $3.5 billion maximum exposure under partner facility lease guarantees is only partly mitigated by $712 million in escrow, with guarantee terms extending five to seven years.
Earnings
Reported · 10:20 PM UTC+2
Period
Jun 2026
EPS
$2.22Beat+6.22%
Est. revenue
104.4B
9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Oct 2026
Est. EPS
$2.47
Est. revenue
109.0B
Earnings transcripts
- Motley Fool
Nvidia (NVDA) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Transcript
NVIDIA CORPORATION
- Issuer webcast
Q2 2027 earnings call transcript
NVIDIA CORPORATION
- Issuer webcast
Q1 2027 earnings call transcript
NVIDIA CORPORATION
- Issuer IR
Q4 2026 earnings call transcript
NVIDIA CORPORATION
- Issuer IR
Q2 2026 earnings call transcript
NVIDIA CORPORATION
- Issuer IR
Q1 2026 earnings call transcript
NVIDIA CORPORATION
Press & signals
- Satelight
Why SciPy builds for Python 3.12 on Windows are a minor miracle
- Satelight
Nvidia’s $13bn deal cements its $5.5tn advantage
- Satelight
Nvidia to Acquire Hugging Face
The rest of this company's wire — with summaries and source links — is part of Pro.
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