gross margin
—
FY 2026
official guidance
NU HOLDINGS LTD.
Last · NYSE$15.37-0.31 (-1.98%)stale · yahoo · 151h ago
Market cap$74.25B3.81B sh
P/E · TTM21.1fwd 13.4 · eps 0.73
Beta0.94vs S&P 500
Div yield—annual · TTM
52w range
$11.20$18.98
Volume48.6Msession
| Revenue | $15.8B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $3.9B |
| Net income | $2.9B |
| Operating margin | 24.5% |
| Net margin | 18.2% |
| Return on equity | 25.4% |
| Period | 2025 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
BuyHoldSell
Nu delivered a strong Q2:
$1.1B net income (+49% YoY), $5.9B gross revenue (+39% FX-neutral), 37% credit growth, and 33% ROE. The bull case is exceptional scale and monetization, with 139M customers, 83.5% activity, 19.5% efficiency, and risk-adjusted NIM at 12.4%; however, investors should not annualize the quarter uncritically: roughly one-third of the upside versus prior expectations came from Desenrola, and management explicitly said 12.4% is not a floor.
Near term
Risk-adjusted NIM and credit costs are the key stock drivers. Management expects NIM to remain in the same region as current levels, but Q2 benefited from seasonal credit normalization, prior-quarter loan growth, and a minority Desenrola tailwind.
90-plus-day delinquencies rose 35 bps sequentially to 6.9%. Q3 will show whether this is benign seasonal migration or the beginning of broader deterioration; management acknowledged that the two-year trend is upward, primarily because of portfolio mix.
Full-year efficiency is expected to average about 20%, implying limited near-term operating leverage from the 19.5% Q2 level as international expansion, marketing, and real-estate costs continue.
Mexico's banking-license approval is an important catalyst, enabling payroll deposits, higher deposit insurance, and broader lending; execution and deposit growth will matter more than the headline 16M customer count.
Longer term
Brazil still offers substantial monetization runway through higher ARPAC, Croma for the Super Core segment, Ultravioleta, and SME banking. The more credible long-term opportunity is share of wallet from existing customers rather than unlimited customer acquisition.
Mexico could become a business representing 60%-70% of Brazil's scale in management's base case, with current Mexican ARPAC of $12.3 versus $5.6 for Brazil at a comparable penetration stage. This is an attractive opportunity but remains a management scenario, not guidance.
NuFormer and AI-led underwriting, support, pricing, and marketing could strengthen unit economics and customer primacy. The evidence is directionally positive, but management did not disclose production loss curves, approval economics, or incremental profit attributable to AI.
The moat thesis depends on primary-account relationships and proprietary transaction data. Analysts pressed on whether credit-card NPL performance reconciles with rising companywide NPLs; management attributed the gap to mix shift, which makes portfolio composition and unsecured-lending growth important ongoing diligence items.
Red flags
90-plus delinquency reached 6.9% and has generally trended upward over two years. Management's seasonal explanation does not fully resolve the analyst concern because it also acknowledged that mix shifts are lifting the aggregate ratio.
The 12.4% risk-adjusted NIM is not a floor. Management corrected the analyst's characterization and said only that it should remain in the same region, leaving downside sensitivity to credit normalization, mix, and macro conditions.
Desenrola benefited cost of credit and risk-adjusted NIM, with about one-third of the upside versus the prior expectation attributed to the program. More than four-fifths of the benefit had already arrived in Q2, and management expects some additional Q3 impact, making the earnings boost temporary.
Management repeatedly cited AI superiority but provided no quantified vintage-level evidence for AI-originated loans. Claims of stronger models and lower inference costs remain difficult to underwrite without approval, loss, retention, or return comparisons.
The U.S. initiative will require 12-30 months to build market-specific data and model confidence, with spending capped at 100 bps of the efficiency ratio. This limits financial risk but makes it a long-dated, uncertain option rather than a near-term earnings driver.
Forward outlook
operating margin
—
FY 2026
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
From latest 20-F · 2023-04-20
- Net Margin Sharply Negative
Red flags
- Net Margin Sharply Negative — Net margin -7.6%
Upcoming earnings
9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$0.23
Est. revenue
5.9B