JPMORGAN CHASE & CO.

Recommendation history

• —HoldHold: JPMorgan’s franchise remains exceptionally strong, with AWM generating over $550 billion of flows and 40% ROE, CCB adding 1.7 million net checking accounts, and management arguing it can deploy $40–50 billion organically over five years. However, the call exposed a less clean near-term setup: consensus implies negative operating leverage, competition is at its toughest since before the Global Financial Crisis, and executives warned that credit losses could broaden beyond isolated private-credit incidents if the cycle turns.
• —BuyBuy: JPMorgan combines exceptional scale with strong underlying economics—2024 CIB revenue was $70 billion with 18% ROE, Consumer & Community Banking exceeded 25% ROE, and Asset & Wealth Management delivered a 34% margin and 34% ROE. The key tension is that management is still investing heavily while Jamie Dimon warned credit is a bad risk and that any regulatory benefit will be competed away rather than expand industry margins.
• —HoldHold: JPMorgan reaffirmed 2025 NII ex-Markets guidance at approximately $90 billion and adjusted expense guidance at approximately $95 billion, while suggesting NII could finish about $1 billion higher. The franchise remains exceptional—$4 trillion AUM, 11.3% U.S. retail deposit share, and 21 consecutive years of AWM net inflows—but tariff uncertainty, potential credit-cost escalation, and limited specificity on future growth make this a strong bank rather than a clear post-call buy.
• —HoldJPMorgan’s franchise remains unusually strong: Payments generated more than $18 billion of revenue, holds $760 billion of deposits, and is benefiting from scale, digitization and consolidation. However, near-term momentum is uneven—management guided to Q2 Investment Banking fees down mid-teens year over year and Markets revenue growth only mid- to high-single digits—while analysts’ questions exposed substantial tariff, stagflation, credit and competitive risks; the call supports a hold, not a fresh buy.