revenue
5070–5142 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
FLOWERS FOODS, INC.
Last · NYSE$6.27-0.18 (-2.79%)stale · yahoo · 101h ago
Market cap$1.33B212.0M sh
P/E · TTM24.1fwd 8.8 · eps 0.26
Beta0.40vs S&P 500
Div yield7.97%annual · TTM
52w range
$6.27$15.02
Volume5.6Msession
| Revenue | $2.8B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $147.9M |
| Net income | $82.7M |
| Free cash flow | $197.1M |
| Operating margin | 5.4% |
| Net margin | 3.0% |
| Return on equity | 6.2% |
| Period | 2026 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
BuyHoldSell
Do not buy yet.
Flowers Foods’ Q2 miss was substantial—sales fell 4.0% to $1.193 billion, volume declined 5.8%, adjusted EBITDA dropped 19.2% to $111.3 million, and adjusted EPS fell to $0.21—and management cut 2026 sales guidance to $5.070-$5.142 billion, EBITDA to $453-$481 million, and adjusted EPS to $0.75-$0.85. The bull case is execution on new business wins, innovation in sourdough/protein/smaller formats, and approximately $20 million of savings entering 2027; the central tension is that management is relying on these initiatives to reverse worsening volume and competitive pressure without assuming category recovery.
Near term
Q3 is still expected to show a year-over-year sales decline; management’s improvement case is back-half weighted, with new business wins contributing across Q3 and Q4 and greater stabilization expected in Q4.
The Nature’s Own relaunch is receiving positive customer and social-media feedback, but management acknowledged it is too early to demonstrate measurable results.
Pricing and promotional strategy is under review after competitors did not follow Flowers’ earlier pricing actions, increasing promotional intensity and weakening Flowers’ relative position.
Dave’s Killer Bread marketing is expected to normalize after a temporary Q2 pullback, but the brand remains exposed to consumer migration toward sourdough and price-sensitive alternatives.
Longer term
Flowers is underpenetrated in the $1.3 billion sourdough subcategory and in functional products such as protein/fiber and smaller loaves; successful innovation could improve mix and restore relevance, but the company has not quantified expected volume, distribution, or revenue contribution.
The company’s structural earnings leverage is deteriorating as bakery volumes fall. Management cited productivity benefits, but acknowledged that fixed-cost absorption becomes harder with continued volume declines and that network optimization will be complex and slow.
The competitive moat is not clearly strengthening: private label, lower-priced products, rising promotions, and competitors’ willingness to resist price increases are pressuring branded retail economics.
The completed organizational review and planned productivity actions could provide roughly $20 million of savings in 2027, but this is primarily a cost-offset opportunity rather than evidence of renewed top-line growth.
Red flags
The implied second-half recovery in guidance depends on new business wins, innovation, lower pricing elasticities, and Nature’s Own stabilization, while Q2 showed a 7.6% branded-retail volume decline and management offered no quantified bridge for the expected improvement.
Management emphasized portfolio gaps and shifting preferences, but did not quantify the scale, timing, distribution, or economics of sourdough, protein, and smaller-format launches.
Competitors did not follow Flowers’ pricing actions, and management conceded that promotional intensity is rising. This limits pricing power just as oil, diesel, packaging resin, and other inflationary pressures could increase into 2027.
Fresh bread volume declined 9.5% in the quarter, creating meaningful negative fixed-cost leverage risk despite restructuring and bakery productivity benefits.
Cash flow from operations declined $24.9 million year to date to $241.5 million, while the company continues to fund capital expenditures of $115-$125 million and dividends.
Forward outlook
ebitda
453–481 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
adjusted eps
0.75–0.85 $per share
FY 2026
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$0.16
Est. revenue
1.2B