ebitda
1350–1550 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
KUEHNE UND NAGEL INTERNATIONAL AG
Last · SwissCHF 214.20+0.90 (+0.42%)stale · yahoo · 123h ago
Market capCHF 25.4B118.8M sh
P/E · TTM29.5fwd 22.9 · eps 7.27
Beta0.64vs S&P 500
Div yield2.81%annual · TTM
52w range
CHF 147.40CHF 223.20
Volume212.1Ksession
| Revenue | CHF 24.5B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | CHF 1.2B |
| Net income | CHF 925.0M |
| Operating margin | 5.0% |
| Net margin | 3.8% |
| Return on equity | 41.8% |
| Period | 2025 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
BuyHoldSell
Strong execution and upgraded guidance are offset by unproven, cost-sensitive AI benefits and cyclical sea-freight risk.
Hold: Q2 recurring EBIT rose 6% year over year to CHF381 million, and 2026 guidance increased to CHF1.35–1.55 billion, supported by Air Logistics share gains, mix improvement and CHF50 million of H1 cost savings. The upside case is CHF100–150 million of annualized AI EBIT impact by end-2027, but this is gross, back-loaded and exposed to rising AI-service costs; weak Sea Logistics demand and limited visibility on hyperscaler concentration keep the risk/reward from being a clean buy.
Themes
- Q2 2026 Results
- Air Logistics
- Sea Logistics
- Ai Productivity
- Contract Logistics
- Hyperscalers
Near term
Air Logistics is the key earnings driver: Q2 volume increased 3% year over year, EBIT rose 42% excluding currency, and management expects stable Q3 yields with a potentially stronger Q4.
Management expects Sea Logistics volumes to turn positive in Q3 and Q4, with higher Q3 yields; this is an important test because Q2 sea volume still fell 1% year over year and EBIT declined 6% excluding currency.
Contract Logistics EBIT fell 9% year over year excluding currency as roughly 300,000 square meters of new implementations generated startup costs; the first positive P&L contribution is expected in Q4.
Free-cash-flow conversion was only 28% in Q2, or just above 30% excluding restructuring outflows, due to working-capital intensity from freighter-based air growth. Normalization toward the company’s long-term 90%+ conversion target matters.
The upgraded CHF1.35–1.55 billion recurring EBIT range requires stronger H2 earnings, consistent with normal seasonality but leaving execution and freight-market sensitivity concentrated in the back half.
Longer term
The AI opportunity is potentially material: management targets CHF100–150 million of annualized EBIT impact by end-2027 against a roughly CHF1.7 billion addressable white-collar cost base.
Owning the TMS and data layer may accelerate workflow deployment, but analyst pushback highlighted the central moat question: third-party software and AI vendors could allow competing forwarders to close the gap.
Management explicitly prefers using AI productivity to win additional volume rather than retain all savings in margins, so the eventual earnings benefit may depend on market-share gains and pricing discipline rather than pure cost takeout.
Long-term contract logistics engagements, typically around 10 years, and cross-selling across air, sea, road and contract logistics could deepen customer retention, particularly in technology supply chains.
Consolidation has improved Kuehne+Nagel’s position on Transpacific lanes and supported some pricing power, but management cautioned against overstating it; freight forwarding remains exposed to capacity and yield cycles.
Red flags
The CHF100–150 million AI EBIT estimate is gross and based on current AI-service costs; management could not quantify future cloud, compute or token costs and will not update this until March 2027.
AI benefits are back-loaded, with the most valuable opportunities expected in the second half of 2027, so the estimate currently has limited near-term earnings validation.
Management declined to disclose the share of air and contract-logistics volumes tied to hyperscalers, leaving customer concentration and the sustainability of the technology-led growth difficult to assess.
Sea Logistics volume remains below prior year, backhaul demand is weak, and management’s confidence that new vessel capacity will not materially pressure rates relies heavily on current geopolitical disruption and Asia demand.
Q2 cash conversion weakened materially as working capital rose above CHF1.6 billion, especially because of dedicated freighter activity; management’s expectation of normalization is not yet demonstrated.
Road Logistics growth appears to be primarily market-share driven rather than a broad demand recovery, while Contract Logistics margins remain temporarily compressed by implementation investment.
Forward outlook
ebitda
100–150 $million
FY 2027
management framework
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
5:30 PM UTC+2
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$2.33
Est. revenue
6.6B
Earnings transcripts
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags