ebitda
20.5–21 $billion
FY 2026
official guidance
ALPHA DHABI HOLDING
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
BuyHoldSell
Strong operating momentum, but the risk-adjusted entry case depends on valuation and better evidence of recurring earnings quality.
HOLD: Alpha Dhabi delivered strong FY25 results, with revenue up 24% to AED78.8bn, adjusted EBITDA up 30% to AED17.7bn and net profit up 11% to AED15.1bn despite the higher UAE tax rate.
FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance of AED20.5–21.0bn supports continued growth, but the call did not establish valuation upside and left key risks—opportunistic investment income, UAE real-estate supply and capital-allocation execution—insufficiently quantified.
Themes
- Fy25 Results
- Fy26 Guidance
- Portfolio Growth
- Capital Deployment
- Alpha Wave
- Aldar Real Estate
Near term
FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance of AED20.5–21.0bn versus AED17.7bn in FY25 is the primary earnings catalyst.
Delivery timing at Aldar and other real-estate assets, alongside the 2026–2028 supply pipeline, could drive estimates and sentiment.
Planned capital deployment of up to AED8bn and the AED1bn buyback could support the shares, but investors will monitor whether new investments clear the stated 15% return threshold.
NMDC’s increased Alpha Dhabi ownership to 76.7% provides greater exposure to its strong FY25 profit performance and infrastructure/energy growth.
Longer term
The diversified portfolio has produced broad-based growth, with Trojan revenue up 30%, NMDC revenue up 10% and Aldar revenue up 47%; adjusted EBITDA has risen from AED5.9bn in 2021 to AED17.7bn in 2025.
Very low reported net debt/EBITDA of 0.15x gives substantial balance-sheet capacity for M&A, but leverage could rise materially as debt is added across portfolio companies.
Alpha Wave Ventures II generated AED2.1bn of unrealized gains in 2025 and had NAV of AED9.8bn; this adds upside but also increases exposure to private-market marks and exit timing.
The investment thesis remains heavily linked to UAE conditions: 86.4% of FY25 revenue was generated inside the UAE, limiting the diversification benefit from international expansion.
The AED2bn annual dividend, rising 5% annually for two years, plus the buyback improves shareholder returns, though near-term disposal proceeds are more likely to be recycled into investments than paid as special dividends.
Red flags
Management explicitly said that other income is partly opportunistic and market-driven, including Alpha Wave gains, non-core monetization and treasury income; this limits confidence in reported profit as a recurring earnings measure.
Management did not provide a quantified construction backlog, 2026 Trojan revenue outlook or margin target despite direct analyst questioning, relying instead on project and sector commentary.
Gross margins rose to 23.6% from 21.2%, but 2026 guidance was only to remain around historic averages; project delivery, input-cost normalization and portfolio mix could reverse part of the improvement.
Management remained fully constructive on Aldar despite acknowledging significant UAE housing supply expected in 2026–2028 and did not indicate a downside sensitivity or stress case.
The AED8bn 2026 deployment target and flexibility to exceed it create execution and overpayment risk, particularly because the call provided no transaction pipeline, valuation framework or expected returns for prospective M&A.
Forward outlook
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Earnings transcripts
Documents
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