EDREAMS ODIGEO S.A.

Recommendation history

• Q4 2026HoldHold: FY26 was strong, with Prime members up 8.9% to 7.9 million, Adjusted EBITDA up 29% to €172.3 million, and €157 million of Cash EBITDA versus €155 million guidance. However, FY27 Cash EBITDA is guided down to €115 million as €35 million-plus of expansion investment combines with mid-teens deferred-revenue headwinds, while intermittent Ryanair access and aggressive Booking.com/Expedia competition remain unresolved. The FY30 ambition—13 million members and over €270 million Cash EBITDA—offers substantial upside, but it is not yet sufficiently de-risked to warrant a buy after the call.
• Q1 2026BuyBuy: eDreams delivered solid Q1 execution, with Prime members reaching 7.5 million, quarterly net adds of 205,000, Cash EBITDA up 8% to €39 million, and Prime contributing 72% of Cash Revenue Margin. FY26 Cash EBITDA guidance remains €215–220 million, but the investment case is tempered by free cash flow ex Non-Prime working capital falling to €11.4 million from €20.4 million, uncertainty around the monthly subscription test, and continued decline in the non-Prime business.
• Q1 2024HoldHold: eDreams delivered a strong quarter, with Cash EBITDA up 110% to €29.4m, margin rising to 18% from 9%, subscribers up 48% to 4.7m, and 65% of Cash Marginal Profit now from Prime. The subscription flywheel supports the FY25 target of more than €180m Cash EBITDA, but the investment case is less clean after management stopped disclosing Prime bookings, provided limited churn data, and changed subscription revenue recognition, leaving engagement and earnings quality harder to independently validate.
• Q2 2026HoldHold: eDreams delivered strong operating momentum—Prime members rose 18% to 7.7 million, H1 cash EBITDA increased 16% to €94 million, and management targets more than €270 million of cash EBITDA by FY30. However, the investment cycle and Ryanair disruption drive cash EBITDA down to €155 million in FY26 and €115 million in FY27, while the monthly-payment transition, rail expansion and international growth remain execution-dependent.
• Q4 2025HoldHold: eDreams delivered an impressive FY25, with Prime members up 25% to 7.26 million, Cash EBITDA up 49% to €180.4 million, and free cash flow excluding Non-Prime working capital above €100 million. FY26 guidance remains strong at €215–220 million Cash EBITDA and over €120 million of comparable FCF, but the investment case is not yet a clean buy: ARPU fell €2.2 to €75.9, Non-Prime bookings declined sharply, and management still withholds key churn, booking-frequency, and market-trial data.
• Q3 2026HoldHold: eDreams delivered strong underlying execution, with 9M FY26 Adjusted EBITDA up 74% to €138.4m, Prime members at 7.7m and Cash EBITDA at €126.7m toward the €155m FY26 target. However, the investment case still depends on executing a major expansion while Cash EBITDA margins fall to roughly 15% in FY27, cash metrics remain distorted by monthly instalments, Ryanair access is volatile, and the claimed valuation upside rests heavily on management’s FY30 targets rather than current cash earnings.
• Q2 2024BuyBuy: eDreams’ Prime transition is translating into measurable operating leverage, with 1H FY24 Cash EBITDA up 84% to €63.5 million, Cash EBITDA margin at 18%, 5.1 million subscribers and Prime contributing 72% of Cash Marginal Profit. Management reconfirmed FY25 targets of 7.25 million Prime members and over €180 million of Cash EBITDA, but the thesis still depends on retention that management will not quantify, continued margin expansion, and controlling the cost of a workforce expanded 35% year over year.