revenue
610–630 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
10X GENOMICS, INC.
Last · NASDAQ$68.59+2.21 (+3.33%)close · yahoo · 12h ago
Market cap$8.94B120.2M sh
P/E · TTM-112fwd 337 · eps -0.61 · loss
Beta2.08vs S&P 500
Div yield—annual · TTM
52w range
$11.16$69.67
Volume1.8Msession
| Revenue | $301.9M |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $-36.6M |
| Net income | $-31.4M |
| Free cash flow | $39.9M |
| Operating margin | -12.1% |
| Net margin | -10.4% |
| Return on equity | -3.8% |
| Period | 2026 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
BuyHoldSell
Hold pending Atera execution rather than buy aggressively.
Q2 revenue was $149.4 million excluding settlement revenue, up 3% year over year, with consumables up 7% but instruments down 47%; FY2026 guidance of $610-$630 million implies only 2%-5% underlying growth. The bull case is unusually strong Atera demand and a potential step-up in consumables, but the near-term outlook still includes a Q3 decline, production-limited 2026 shipments, and no quantified evidence yet that AI demand is incremental revenue.
Themes
- Atera Launch
- Spatial Transition
- Flex Apex
- Ai Biology
- Academic Funding
- Consumables Growth
Near term
Atera booked orders already exceed the 40-unit 2026 shipment target, but most shipments are scheduled for Q4 and manufacturing capacity—not demand—is the binding constraint.
Management expects a modest sequential revenue decline in Q3 as customers defer Xenium and other spatial purchases ahead of Atera; Atera instruments are expected to drive most of the Q3-to-Q4 increase.
Spatial consumables remain exposed to transition risk: Xenium utilization is strong, but customers are already delaying projects and orders before receiving Atera.
Academic funding has not translated into purchasing; management explicitly assumes no improvement in the academic macro environment in its raised guidance.
Gross margin was 74%, aided by $2.6 million of tariff refunds, so the reported improvement is not entirely structural.
Longer term
Atera could expand the spatial biology market if its whole-transcriptome, single-cell sensitivity and roughly 2x Xenium maximum pull-through translate into sustained utilization after installation.
Flex Apex reaction volumes are growing at a double-digit rate and could support better single-cell consumables growth after most intended product conversions are completed by year-end.
Proteintech Genomics and planned Atera capabilities in proteomics, automation and multi-omics may broaden the platform, but integration and commercialization outcomes remain unproven.
AI is a potentially important structural demand tailwind because customers need large-scale, high-resolution biological data, but management did not quantify AI-attributable revenue or provide customer-level evidence of incremental demand.
The platform moat remains an assertion rather than a demonstrated outcome: management claimed superior quality, scale and multi-omics versus alternatives, while Atera has not yet shipped into the field.
Red flags
Management repeatedly described Atera demand as extraordinary, but 2026 revenue is still constrained to approximately 40 shipments and capacity expansion for 2027 and beyond was not quantified.
Atera has no field-installed base yet, leaving product reliability, customer workflow adoption, utilization ramp and actual consumables pull-through untested.
Management gave no Atera consumables revenue forecast despite analyst pressure; the stated $1.5 million-$3 million maximum pull-through range is not a realized or near-term forecast.
The Q&A produced no tangible metric for AI-driven revenue, despite repeated claims that AI is pervasive across customers; management said granular disclosure may come only as categories grow.
Atera may cannibalize Xenium and Visium before its own consumables base is established. Management says Atera will more than offset the decline, but offered no quantified bridge.
Underlying growth remains modest at 2%-5% for FY2026, while the investment case depends heavily on a successful new-platform launch and a future acceleration that is not yet visible in reported revenue.
Forward outlook
revenue growth
2–5 pct
FY 2026
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
−$0.02
Est. revenue
147.3M
Earnings transcripts
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags