GREENPANEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED

Recommendation history

• Q3 2026HoldHold: Q3 revenue rose 11.4% YoY to INR398.8 crore and MDF volumes grew 17.1% overall, including 19% domestic growth, but operating EBITDA was only INR44.3 crore or 11.2% excluding FX and included INR8.5 crore of Andhra Pradesh power subsidy. Volume momentum and falling chemical/timber costs are constructive, but domestic realization fell 1.4% sequentially, discounting is intensifying, management sees no near-term price increase, and FY27 guidance was deferred.
• Q2 2026HoldHold: Greenpanel’s Q2 operational recovery is credible, with revenue up 17.1% YoY to INR389.4 crore, adjusted EBITDA of INR39.7 crore at 10.2%, and domestic MDF volumes up 30.5%. However, reported PAT remained negative at INR6.1 crore, pricing was cut roughly 2% after mix effects, new capacity is only around 40%-52% utilized, and management is prioritizing volume over price increases in an oversupplied market.
• 2025-08-06HoldHold: FY25 was materially weak, with revenue of ₹1,435.77 crore, EBITDA of ₹153.78 crore and net profit of ₹72.11 crore, while domestic MDF volumes fell 6% and exports fell about 23%. The recovery case rests on lower timber prices, utilization rising from roughly 50% toward 60%, and the Andhra Pradesh thin-MDF line scaling from 30–35% utilization, but competition and imports remain intense and management provided no quantified earnings guidance.
• Q1 2026HoldHold: Q1 was materially weak, with consolidated revenue down to Rs. 323 crore, reported EBITDA at negative Rs. 12.4 crore and PAT at negative Rs. 34.6 crore; excluding the Rs. 27.6 crore FX hit, operating EBITDA was only Rs. 13 crore, or 4% of revenue. The recovery case rests on lower timber costs, BIS-driven formalization and thin-panel utilization, but management’s unchanged volume/margin guidance requires an exceptionally strong 9-month ramp while relying on aggressive pricing and still-unquantified cost savings.
• Q4 2025HoldGreenpanel’s recovery case is credible but not yet investable as a clean buy: FY25 PAT fell 49% to Rs.72.1 crore, Q4 revenue declined 14.4% year-on-year to Rs.338.9 crore, and Q4 domestic MDF volumes fell 25%. FY26 could benefit from 10%-12% growth at existing plants, 72,000 cubic meters from the new line, lower timber costs and Rs.51 crore of remaining EPCG benefits, but underlying margins remain weak and management’s 12% MDF margin target is still largely unproven.
• Q3 2025HoldHold: Greenpanel’s Q3 was materially weak, with revenue down 7% to Rs.358.1 crore, EBITDA margin collapsing to 5.0% from 17.3%, and PAT down 75% to Rs.8.5 crore. Wood costs rose 25% year-on-year, domestic MDF realizations fell 5.5%, imports increased to 20,000–22,000 CBM per month, and industry supply remains well ahead of demand; the new plant and possible BIS-led import relief offer recovery potential, but the timing and earnings payoff remain unproven.
• Q2 2025HoldHold: Q2 was materially weak, with revenue down 16.4% to Rs. 332.7 crore, EBITDA margin falling 649 bps to 11.9%, and PAT down 55% to Rs. 18.5 crore. The recovery case rests on 15%-18% domestic MDF volume growth in H2, 150-200 bps margin improvement versus Q2, and the new thin-MDF line starting production by December, but a roughly 30% industry capacity-demand gap, ongoing 4% dealer incentives, and timber-cost pressure make the recovery unproven.