revenue growth
10–15 pct
FY 2028
management framework
CVC CAPITAL PARTNERS PLC
Last · Amsterdam€13.66+0.01 (+0.07%)close · yahoo · 35h ago
Market cap——
P/E · TTM—fwd — · eps —
Beta—vs S&P 500
Div yield—annual · TTM
52w range
——
Volume973.8Ksession
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
BuyHoldSell
Strong platform and fundraising momentum, but delayed and lumpy carry realization limits near-term upside visibility.
Hold.
CVC delivered strong 2025 results—fee-paying AUM rose to €148 billion, management fees increased 9% to €1.45 billion, and EBITDA rose 13% to €1.1 billion—with a credible path to €200 billion of fee-paying AUM by 2028 at 10%+ annual growth. However, the key earnings catalyst has slipped: PRE may remain at roughly 2025 levels in 2026 before reaching around €400 million in 2027, while Fund VIII is expected to be a lower-IRR vintage and Marathon adds execution and balance-sheet risk.
Themes
- Fee Paying Aum
- Fund X
- Performance Related Earnings
- Private Wealth
- Insurance Channel
- Aig Partnership
Near term
Asia V carry recognition may slip from 2026 into 2027; management now expects 2026 PRE to be similar to 2025 and 2027 PRE around €400 million.
Fund X fundraising is expected to launch in early 2027, with the target size set after summer 2026 and currently expected to be at least as large as Fund IX.
Private Wealth momentum remains strong: evergreen AUM reached €4.2 billion through February 2026, with only approximately €15 million of Q1 redemptions.
The €350 million buyback and €500 million 2025 dividend support shareholder returns, but net leverage is expected to rise to approximately 1.5x EBITDA by year-end 2026.
Longer term
The diversified Credit, Secondaries, and Infrastructure platforms now represent more than 50% of fee-paying AUM and grew 12% in 2025, reducing reliance on flagship private equity fundraising.
The €3.5 billion AIG partnership and planned Marathon acquisition expand insurance distribution and US credit capabilities, including asset-backed and structured credit.
CVC's high realization rate and reported €21.9 billion of 2025 realizations are meaningful fundraising advantages if investment returns remain strong.
Fund VIII's LTM EBITDA growth accelerated to 13% in Q4 2025, but management acknowledged the 2021 vintage will likely produce lower IRRs as exits take longer; strong MOIC rather than IRR is the central defense.
The €5 billion embedded future carry opportunity supports substantial earnings potential, but IFRS recognition is structurally delayed and highly lumpy.
Red flags
The expected first step-up in PRE was pushed toward 2027 because exit timing remains uncertain; management provided confidence on value but limited visibility on timing.
Analyst questioning highlighted that delayed exits can dilute IRRs even if gross MOIC is preserved. Management characterized this as a market-wide issue but did not quantify the expected impact for CVC funds.
Management did not disclose specific economics of Private Wealth distributor arrangements despite questions about performance-fee incentives and product margins.
Private Wealth redemptions are currently low, but CVC disclosed limited detail on lock-up structures and future liquidity behavior; the comparison with US private-credit evergreen stress remains untested because Marathon has no evergreen products.
Marathon is expected to be broadly EPS-neutral in 2027 and only low-single-digit accretive in 2028, leaving meaningful integration and execution risk before it contributes materially.
The €200 billion 2028 fee-paying AUM objective and Fund X expectation are management targets/frameworks rather than firm guidance, and depend on sustained fundraising in a more selective private-markets environment.
Forward outlook
Recommendation history
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
No actuals reported
Period
Jun 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
0
Earnings transcripts
Press & signals
- Satelight
CVC hires Todd Sisitsky with plans to name him co-chief
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags