eps diluted
4.74–4.79 $per share
FY 2026
official guidance
NATIONAL HEALTH INVESTORS, INC.
Last · NYSE$70.88-1.03 (-1.43%)stale · yahoo · 99h ago
Market cap$3.48B49.1M sh
P/E · TTM20.5fwd 21.8 · eps 3.46
Beta0.55vs S&P 500
Div yield5.30%annual · TTM
52w range
$67.94$91.38
Volume193.9Ksession
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
BuyHoldSell
Hold/watch rather than buy aggressively.
NHI has a credible capital-recycling and SHOP expansion story—SHOP NOI rose 188.5% to $11 million, liquidity was $792.4 million, and the $560 million NHC sale should materially strengthen the balance sheet—but normalized FFO fell 2.5% to $1.19 and same-store SHOP NOI declined 6.3%. The key tension is that FY 2026 FFO guidance of $4.74-$4.79 assumes $180 million of unidentified investments while management is entering a more competitive market at 6%-6.5% yields and still needs to repair occupancy.
Themes
- Shop Expansion
- Nhc Disposition
- Senior Housing Acquisitions
- Same Store Noi
- 1031 Reinvestment
- Occupancy Recovery
Near term
Execution of the $334 million of remaining NHC proceeds through tax-deferred 1031 reinvestment is central; management wants to avoid a special dividend, but has not identified sufficient accretive transactions.
Third- and fourth-quarter same-store SHOP performance must improve sharply to support full-year guidance; management implied approximately 8%-9% second-half same-store NOI growth despite first-half weakness.
The planned pruning of a subset of underperforming same-store SHOP assets could improve returns, but deal scope, timing and financial impact remain undisclosed.
The $127.3 million signed-LOI pipeline, primarily SHOP at a 6.8% initial yield and 6.5% after maintenance CapEx, provides near-term deployment visibility but is below recent 7.7% year-to-date investment yields.
Longer term
Management targets increasing SHOP exposure from approximately 24%-25% of invested capital to 40%-50% over three years, with acquisition capacity targeted at $500 million-$700 million annually versus the prior $200 million-$400 million run rate.
The strategic shift increases exposure to operating execution rather than fixed contractual rent. The new COO and additional systems may improve asset oversight, but G&A already rose 44% to $8.8 million and the cost base is being built ahead of earnings.
Triple-net fundamentals remain a useful stabilizer: cash lease revenue increased 2.8%, senior housing EBITDARM coverage improved to 1.62x, and SNF coverage improved to 2.66x.
Competitive pricing is deteriorating: management said high-quality senior housing yields have moved from roughly 7% to 6%-6.5% in six months, compressing the margin of safety on acquisitions.
Red flags
Management did not quantify the subset of same-store SHOP assets under strategic review or provide a firm announcement timeline beyond wanting action this year.
The full-year FFO outlook depends on $180 million of unidentified new investments, creating execution and underwriting risk if attractive deals are unavailable or are acquired at lower yields.
Same-store SHOP NOI remains below prior year, with one property suffering occupancy pressure from offline units and recent excess deaths also weighing on move-ins.
Analysts pressed on why NHI's targeted SHOP growth of 8%-10% trails peers reporting low- to mid-teens growth; management cited a more conservative, light-value-add strategy but did not provide evidence that the newer portfolio can outperform the stated range.
The proposed increase in operating exposure is not yet matched by demonstrated same-store performance: newer assets are said to be within assumptions, but the legacy portfolio continues to require occupancy and pricing remediation.
The NHC gain of approximately $541.6 million will boost reported earnings but is not recurring cash-flow growth; normalized FFO was down and interest expense rose 5.4%.
Forward outlook
ebitda
44.1–45.1 $million
FY 2026
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Recent earnings
Reported · 9:00 PM UTC+1
Period
Jun 2026
EPS
$1.15Missed−74.82%
Est. revenue
107.7M
Earnings transcripts
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags
annual reportDownload / View, ARS, Annual Report to Security Holders, 04/03/2026, 21706473, pdf formatIR
—2026-12-31≈0—2026-12-31≈0