ICL Group Ltd. · כי"ל

Recommendation history

• Q2 2025HoldHold: Q2 sales rose 5% year over year to $1.832 billion, but adjusted EBITDA fell year over year to $351 million and adjusted EPS was only $0.09. Q3 should benefit from higher potash prices and better volumes, yet the 2025 potash sales outlook was cut to 4.3–4.5 million tons amid war-related production risk, while specialty EBITDA guidance remains a wide $950 million–$1.15 billion.
• Q1 2025HoldHOLD: OpenText delivered Q1 revenue of $1.269 billion, adjusted EBITDA margin of 35% and adjusted EPS of $0.93, but organic revenue still declined 1.8% excluding AMC and cloud revenue grew only 1.3%. The bull case is a 20% larger cloud/AI pipeline, 10.3% cloud bookings growth and Titanium X-driven second-half acceleration; the key tension is that the investment case remains dependent on unproven execution in SaaS, AI and security despite stable demand and limited quantitative evidence for the ramp.
• Q4 2024HoldHold: ICL delivered resilient 2024 execution—$6.84B sales, $1.469B adjusted EBITDA, $758M free cash flow, and 70% of EBITDA from specialty businesses—but the 2025 setup is not yet a clean buy. Specialty EBITDA guidance is $950M-$1.15B, while potash prices are improving, yet Q1 remains burdened by lower-priced China/India contracts and battery-material investments remain deliberately delayed amid uncertain demand and policy.
• Q3 2024HoldHold. ICL delivered a solid Q3: sales were $1.753 billion, adjusted EBITDA rose 11% year over year to $383 million, margin expanded to 22%, and year-to-date free cash flow reached $572 million. The specialty businesses drove the improvement, with 2024 specialty EBITDA guidance raised to $950 million-$1.05 billion, but potash prices remain pressured, logistics added $13 million of costs, Q4 is seasonally softer, and management provided no quantified 2025 outlook.
• Q1 2024HoldICL’s Q1 recovery was encouraging but not enough for a clean buy: revenue rose 3% sequentially to $1.735 billion and adjusted EBITDA was $362 million, while specialties-driven EBITDA approached $250 million. Management retained 2024 specialties EBITDA guidance of $700 million-$900 million, but phosphate pricing is already moderating, potash prices remain down 40% year over year at $324/ton, and the battery-materials opportunity remains largely dependent on customer qualification.
• Q4 2023HoldQualcomm delivered solid Q3 revenue of $9.9B and non-GAAP EPS of $2.21, with Automotive up 61% year over year to $1.6B and QCT non-handset revenue up 28%. However, the near-term setup is mixed: Q4 guidance is $9.7B-$10.5B revenue and $2.05-$2.25 EPS, Apple revenue is expected to fall about 50% sequentially, QCT margins are pressured by input costs, and the major data-center opportunity remains largely prospective. The diversification story is credible but not yet sufficient for a clean buy.
• Q3 2023HoldHold: ICL generated $1.86 billion of Q3 sales, $346 million of adjusted EBITDA and $217 million of free cash flow, while reaffirming FY2023 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.6-$1.8 billion and expecting the midpoint. Potash demand and destocking are improving, but pricing remains below 2022 peaks, Q4 Growing Solutions EBITDA is expected to remain soft, and the industrial recovery lacks robust electronics, AI-server or construction demand.