revenue
10.6–10.8 $billion
FY 2026
official guidance
DAUCH CORPORATION
Last · NYSE$6.99+0.32 (+4.80%)stale · yahoo · 100h ago
Market cap$1.66B237.6M sh
P/E · TTM-6.9fwd 6.1 · eps -1.01 · loss
Beta1.64vs S&P 500
Div yield—annual · TTM
52w range
$4.92$9.25
Volume2.6Msession
| Revenue | $8.2B |
|---|---|
| Operating income | $66.0M |
| Net income | $-99.3M |
| Free cash flow | $-24.9M |
| Operating margin | 0.8% |
| Net margin | -1.2% |
| Return on equity | -6.6% |
| Period | TTM 2026-06-30 |
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OpenFilings analyst
Our analyst
Agentic read of the latest earnings call — recommendation updates when we process a new transcript. Research synthesis, not investment advice.
BuyHoldSell
Hold rather than buy aggressively.
Q2 execution was solid, with $2.96B sales, $389.6M adjusted EBITDA at a 13.2% margin, $148.4M adjusted free cash flow and guidance raised to $10.6B-$10.8B sales and $1.36B-$1.425B EBITDA. The bull case is rapid Dowlais synergy capture and truck-program upside; the tension is that leverage remains 2.6x, the $2B pipeline is 85% ICE/hybrid, and the September GM changeover, restructuring, energy costs and USMCA uncertainty could pressure second-half results.
Themes
- Dowlais Integration
- Synergies
- Gm Truck Launch
- Deleveraging
- Usmca
- Ice Hybrid Pipeline
Near term
The GM full-size truck transition is scheduled to begin affecting production in September; management explicitly expects customer downtime and related volume impacts during the launch.
Second-half production assumptions are weaker: North American vehicle production is expected to decline approximately 4% sequentially and Europe approximately 8%.
Synergies reached a $70M run rate after five months, with management targeting more than $100M by year-end; investors should watch whether procurement and operational savings, which management said are more back-weighted to 2027-2028, materialize.
CapEx is weighted toward the second half at 4.5%-5% of sales, primarily due to GM and other launches, creating a cash-flow execution risk.
Longer term
Debt reduction remains the near-term capital-allocation priority until leverage is sustainably around 2.5x or lower; shareholder returns are deferred until that threshold is reached.
The Dowlais assets offer operating upside through Dauch-system implementation, footprint optimization, capacity utilization and in-sourcing, but management acknowledged the acquired facilities still require upgrades and several years of execution.
The $2B quoting pipeline is directionally favorable for current demand, but management cited an approximately 30% win rate and did not quantify timing, margins or conversion, limiting its present valuation value.
Competitive positioning appears strongest in ICE and hybrid driveline and metal-forming content, while electrification opportunities have declined sharply; the 85% ICE/hybrid mix reduces near-term EV exposure but may weaken long-term growth optionality if powertrain adoption reaccelerates.
Red flags
Analysts repeatedly pressed for detail on the Dowlais footprint, purchasing synergies, 2027 restructuring costs, pipeline conversion and USMCA scenario impacts; management provided few quantified answers beyond broad assurances.
The acquisition has materially increased financing costs: Q2 net interest expense was $82.6M versus $37.5M a year earlier, while net debt remains approximately $4.1B.
USMCA exposure remains unmodeled. Management said it is too early to forecast the cost impact and would only adjust the footprint case by case, leaving a potentially material regional-cost risk unresolved.
The GM launch creates a near-term volume and downtime headwind, while the company is simultaneously carrying second-half-heavy CapEx and $115M-$150M of full-year restructuring cash payments.
Reported GAAP net income was only $1M despite $389.6M of adjusted EBITDA, highlighting the burden from interest, restructuring, acquisition-related items and other adjustments.
Forward outlook
ebitda
1.36–1.425 $billion
FY 2026
official guidance
OpenFilings analyst view from primary-source filings and earnings calls — not investment advice.
Upcoming earnings
1:30 PM UTC+1
Period
Sep 2026
Est. EPS
$0.21
Est. revenue
2.8B
Earnings transcripts
Documents
FormReporting forFiledFlags